{"id":60066112,"date":"2024-12-19T16:23:21","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T16:23:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?post_type=news_digest&p=60066112"},"modified":"2024-12-19T17:49:03","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T17:49:03","slug":"chinas-oil-demand-could-peak-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"news_digest","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/chinas-oil-demand-could-peak-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s oil demand could peak in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

China\u2019s oil demand is projected to peak at approximately 770 million tonnes in 2025, according to a forecast by the China National Petroleum Corporation\u2019s Economic and Technological Research Institute (ETRI), reports Caixin<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, China\u2019s oil demand is expected to reach 756 million tonnes, marking a modest 0.04% year-on-year increase. Following the anticipated peak, demand will gradually decline, falling to 240 million tonnes by 2060 \u2013 a nearly 70% drop from peak levels, ETRI revealed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecast also predicts that China\u2019s overall fossil fuel demand will peak in 2028, coinciding with the peak in energy-related carbon emissions. Notably, natural gas demand is expected to rise steadily, plateauing at 620-650 billion cubic meters in 2035. This is primarily driven by energy flexibility \u2013 or the ability of the power system to respond to changes in load demand and fluctuations \u2013 and growing consumption due to a predicted stable economic growth trajectory and declining global prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2040, the share of oil used in transportation is expected to drop from the current 50% to 33%, while use as chemical industry feedstock will surpass that of transportation fuels by seven percentage points. By 2060, consumption of oil as chemical industry feedstock is projected to exceed 60%, with that for transportation falling below 20%, the forecast notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key factors driving this transformation include the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), LNG trucks, and high-speed rail, said Wu Mouyuan, deputy director of ETRI. In 2023, China\u2019s demand for gasoline and diesel in road transportation began to decline for this reason, with aviation fuel emerging as the sole growth segment. By 2035, demand for refined fuel is expected to decrease by between 25-40% from 2023 levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecast reflects China\u2019s broader commitment to addressing climate change and transforming its economy. The country has so far pledged to peak greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, analysis<\/a> from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air suggests that, in order to align with Paris Agreement emissions trajectories, China should aim for a minimum 30% reduction in emissions by 2035. For COP30 in 2025, China will need to submit its 2035 climate targets to the UN, along with revisions to its existing 2030 commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read Dialogue Earth\u2019s previous <\/em>analysis<\/em><\/a> on how China\u2019s 2035 targets can be a climate breakthrough.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s oil demand will peak at 770 million tonnes in 2025, with demand to drop by nearly 70% from peak levels by 2060, predicts industry forecast<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":60006649,"template":"","categories":[757],"tags":[513,50029971,580],"country":[20000110],"digest-collection":[50039911],"class_list":["post-60066112","news_digest","type-news_digest","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-oil","tag-policy","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s oil demand could peak in 2025 | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China\u2019s oil demand will peak at 770 million tonnes in 2025, with demand to drop by nearly 70% from peak levels by 2060, predicts industry forecast\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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