{"id":60035936,"date":"2024-06-07T12:02:02","date_gmt":"2024-06-07T11:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?post_type=opinion&p=60035936"},"modified":"2024-06-12T14:21:39","modified_gmt":"2024-06-12T13:21:39","slug":"opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours","status":"publish","type":"opinion","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinion: What do India\u2019s election results mean for its neighbours?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The outcome of the general elections in India was largely seen as a foregone conclusion, with Narendra Modi returning for a third term as the prime minister. However, the inauguration of the new government, tentatively scheduled for June 9, 2024, will be very different in composition than ones he has led for the last decade over his two previous terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong showing by opposition parties has meant that for the first time in ten years, Modi\u2019s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) no longer has a majority in Parliament, as it did after the 2014 and 2019 elections. During his first two terms, Modi had governed ostensibly as the head of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), but he did not need them. This time, with only 240 seats \u2013 32 short of the majority mark of 272 \u2013 he will be dependent on his coalition partners. This shift will have important impacts domestically, but it will also impact relations with India\u2019s neighbours, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and China. Of these, the prime ministers of Bangladesh and Nepal are among the six foreign leaders<\/a> invited.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Renegotiating the Ganges Treaty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to most exit polls during the elections \u2013 almost all of which had projected the BJP to gain seats<\/a> rather than lose 67 \u2013 the BJP was projected to strengthen its position in West Bengal. Instead, of the 42 seats from West Bengal, the regional party of the current Chief Minister, Mamata Banerjee, won an additional seven seats and the BJP lost six. While states do not play a direct role in foreign relations, water is a state subject under the Indian Constitution, enabling powerful regional parties, such as Banerjee\u2019s, to significantly influence outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Banerjee\u2019s party is part of the opposition alliance, the neighbouring state of Bihar is governed by Nitish Kumar, whose party is part of the NDA, the governing alliance. Given the BJP\u2019s newfound need to keep its allies onside, Kumar will now also have a greater say in policy decisions than in the last ten years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India and Bangladesh signed the Ganges Treaty<\/a> in 1996, for the equitable sharing of water from the River Ganga, which flows through Bihar and West Bengal before it reaches Bangladesh. The treaty, negotiated with great difficulty, and one of the most important between the two countries, will expire in 2026. Negotiating a successor treaty in the current scenario will now require Dhaka to not only deal with New Delhi, but also Kolkata (the capital of West Bengal) and Patna (of Bihar).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Indian<\/div>
From left to right, Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of West Bengal, Sheikh Hasina, the prime minister of Bangladesh, and Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India (Image: Tumpa Mondal \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

This democratising of outreach may actually be in the self-interest of both countries. A publicly discussed and debated agreement \u2013 instead of one negotiated merely between the foreign ministries and central water authorities of the two countries \u2013 is far more likely to be stable and inclusive. As Dialogue Earth had reported earlier<\/a>, the lack of political consensus has severely hobbled the prospects of a treaty on the Teesta<\/a> River, especially with a veto from Banerjee in West Bengal. Over the next year, building that consensus may be the only way a new Ganges Treaty emerges, or the old one continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A shift in focus with Nepal?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another state that saw a fall in fortunes for the BJP \u2013 a far more severe one \u2013 was Uttar Pradesh. The most populous state in India, UP sends 80 MPs to Parliament. The BJP had won 62 seats in 2019, but this time has only won 33. Although it is still governed by a BJP chief minister, Yogi Adityanath, the majority of legislators now representing UP in the Indian parliament are from parties opposed to the BJP. Adityanath is also the mahant, or chief priest, of the Gorakhnath temple, which has had a historical relationship with Nepal\u2019s erstwhile royal family. Again, although states play no formal role in Indian foreign policy, the significance of the Gorakhnath temple in influencing Indian policy towards Nepal cannot be overlooked.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s dealings with Nepal over the last ten years have had a number of points of friction, from a blockade of goods<\/a> travelling from India to Nepal in 2015, to recent issues about disputed border regions displayed on maps<\/a>. How these issues evolve under a new Indian government remains to be seen, but certainly Nitish Kumar of Bihar will have a bigger say, and Bihar is deeply dependent on Nepal to deal with floods along the Koshi basin as the water comes downstream from Nepal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lingering hostilities<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The most interesting prospects are with Pakistan and China, both countries with which India has tense relations, so much so that Modi has reportedly not even replied to the congratulations<\/a> sent by these two countries. But during his inauguration in 2014, Modi invited all the political leaders from South Asian countries and Nawaz Sharif \u2013 the then prime minister of Pakistan \u2013 made it a point<\/a> to attend. A year later, Modi made a surprise trip<\/a> to attend the wedding of Nawaz\u2019s granddaughter in Pakistan. Relations, though, plummeted soon after and reached a nadir after India\u2019s sudden move to strip the Kashmir region of its legal autonomy in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If anything, the bonhomie between Modi and Xi Jinping was more pronounced, with multiple trips by both leaders to meet each other. But a violent standoff<\/a> in 2020 along the Line of Actual Control<\/a> \u2013 the border region between India and China \u2013 was the last step in a rapidly souring relationship. Despite multiple rounds of talks thereafter, the area has seen rapid militarisation and few steps towards de-escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

By sheer coincidence, as the Indian election results were being announced, the current Pakistani prime minister, Shahbaz Sharif \u2013 brother to Nawaz Sharif \u2013 was in Beijing<\/a>. All three countries \u2013 China, India and Pakistan \u2013 are currently dealing with various economic challenges. A thawing in relations would be in the self-interest of all their economies. The easiest of these would be some reconciliation over the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan, where there is \u2013 absurdly \u2013 both an independent expert and a court of arbitration hearing over the same matter. Last year, the Court of Arbitration unanimously rejected India\u2019s objections<\/a> to its hearings \u2013 none of which India has seen fit to attend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such an outcome, though, would require both care and exceptional political bravery. What it could achieve, on the other hand, if commerce outpaced military deployment in the Himalayas, would be a rich legacy. And as Modi begins what most people expect to be his final term as prime minister, a legacy may be what he is seeking, but whether it will be this one is impossible to say.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The results could offer an opportunity to reset relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and China \u2013 will Modi take it? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":60035964,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[50039903],"tags":[50029993,50040720,580,587,50040707],"country":[20000116,20000111,20000113,20000112],"class_list":["post-60035936","opinion","type-opinion","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-water","tag-elections","tag-geopolitics","tag-policy","tag-rivers","tag-the-third-pole","country-bangladesh","country-india","country-nepal","country-pakistan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpinion: What do India\u2019s election results mean for its neighbours?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The results could offer an opportunity to reset relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and China \u2013 will Modi take it?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opinion: What do India\u2019s election results mean for its neighbours?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The results could offer an opportunity to reset relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and China \u2013 will Modi take it?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-06-12T13:21:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Indian-Prime-Minister-Modi-drinking-water-during-his-speech_Kabir-Jhangiani_Alamy_2XA60N8-1200px-copy.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/\",\"name\":\"Opinion: What do India\u2019s election results mean for its neighbours?\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Indian-Prime-Minister-Modi-drinking-water-during-his-speech_Kabir-Jhangiani_Alamy_2XA60N8-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-06-07T11:02:02+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-06-12T13:21:39+00:00\",\"description\":\"The results could offer an opportunity to reset relations with Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and China \u2013 will Modi take it?\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/opinion-what-do-indias-election-results-mean-for-its-neighbours\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Indian-Prime-Minister-Modi-drinking-water-during-his-speech_Kabir-Jhangiani_Alamy_2XA60N8-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Indian-Prime-Minister-Modi-drinking-water-during-his-speech_Kabir-Jhangiani_Alamy_2XA60N8-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":800,\"caption\":\"2XA60N8 New Delhi, Delhi, India. 4th June, 2024. 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