In less than a year, China will need to submit its 2035 climate targets to the UN, alongside updates to its pre-existing 2030 targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So far, the country has committed to peaking its greenhouse gas emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n These new and updated UN targets \u2013 China\u2019s Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement \u2013 will be crucial in defining the speed of its emission reductions after the peak, driving its energy transition, and demonstrating the credibility of its neutrality target. Coming from the world\u2019s largest emitter, they are also essential for the global effort to mitigate climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)<\/p> The Paris Agreement requires every signatory party to commit to emissions reductions and climate adaptation targets. Submitted every five years, a party\u2019s NDCs are expected to become more ambitious over time.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n China\u2019s current commitments allow for a very slow start to emissions reductions, but the country has since experienced a much more rapid clean-energy boom than those commitments anticipated. There are also early signs<\/a> of emissions starting to plateau or fall. This is a reason to reassess the national emissions trajectory and should give Beijing\u2019s leaders confidence to set strong 2035 targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our assessment of emission trajectories aligned with the Paris Agreement suggests China should commit to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 30% by 2035. A review of opportunities demonstrates how this can be done by building on existing trends and policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China accounts for 30% of annual global greenhouse gas emissions and 90% of the growth in CO2 emissions since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015. Emissions growth accelerated in the country during 2021-2023. Therefore, peaking and shrinking China\u2019s emissions plays an indispensable role in aligning global emissions with Paris targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China\u2019s pre-2060 carbon-neutrality commitment can be seen as aligned with Paris goals, but only if the country implements deep emissions cuts in the next decade. This is also key for the credibility of the long-term goal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, the current structure of China\u2019s goals leaves room for a slower pace of emissions reduction. Such a pace would see emissions stay at a high level for the next decade or more before being reduced rapidly, as long as emissions reach their peak before 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because of this, China\u2019s current commitments are rated<\/a> as \u201chighly insufficient\u201d by Climate Action Tracker, a national climate plan evaluator.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China also needs to specify on paper that its 2060 target covers neutrality across all<\/em> greenhouse gases. This stipulation has already been stated<\/a> (by the country\u2019s former climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua) but it is not yet included in the country\u2019s submitted Paris targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Strong 2035 targets will be necessary if China\u2019s new NDCs are to align with the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Numerous Chinese and international research groups have proposed pathways to meet China\u2019s 2030 and 2060 commitments. The specific emissions-reduction pathways depend on which global temperature target is being pursued (eg 1.5C or 2C, and with what probability of attaining it), assumptions about CO2 removal, burden-sharing between countries, as well as data and assumptions about the costs of reducing emissions built into the model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Pathways that recommend modest emissions reductions in the next decade are based on assuming a significant \u201covershoot\u201d of greenhouse gas concentrations, and subsequent reductions that rely on extremely large-scale carbon removal from the atmosphere. Such pathways have been excluded from our analysis because they are risky, expensive and quite likely implausible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A survey of published studies, described in the table below, indicates that to align with 1.5C, China\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced from their peak by at least 30% by 2035. The most ambitious scenarios call for this reduction to be as deep as 80%. The scenarios<\/a> included in the UN\u2019s latest<\/a> Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report require even larger reductions, with a median of more than 60%.<\/p>\n\n\n\nStarting point: China\u2019s emission trends and commitments<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
By how much does China need to reduce its emissions to align with Paris?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n