{"id":60061135,"date":"2024-11-22T16:31:46","date_gmt":"2024-11-22T16:31:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?post_type=opinion&p=60061135"},"modified":"2025-09-01T09:00:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T08:00:47","slug":"analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency","status":"publish","type":"opinion","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Southeast Asia\u2019s energy transition under a Trump presidency"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

With Donald Trump returning to power as US president in January 2025, Southeast Asian countries are carefully weighing the potential implications for their energy transition efforts. Trump\u2019s second term as president, following his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, is set to usher in a significant shift in US global engagement, particularly in climate and clean energy leadership \u2013 a critical area for a world striving for long-term, sustainable transitions. Southeast Asia, which requires significant investments in clean energy, faces a growing dichotomy between US retrenchment and China\u2019s expanding regional engagement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, the US has played an inconsistent role in climate leadership, making it an unreliable partner for a region requiring long-term energy sector commitments. While\u00ad\u00ad\u00ad Japan has maintained its role as a traditional energy investor, China\u2019s increasing prominence cannot be overlooked. Once focused on fossil fuel power generation, China is now leveraging its clean technology dominance in solar, electric vehicles (EV) and batteries, giving it a significant edge in the race for Southeast Asia\u2019s energy future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clean tech competition<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The clean technology space is a central battleground between the US and China. China\u2019s rapid scaling of solar panel manufacturing and adoption has driven down global solar costs, by nearly 90%<\/a> in the last decade enabling widespread adoption, including in price-sensitive Southeast Asian markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, US investments in clean energy have focused primarily on domestic priorities. Under President Biden, it rolled out the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which redirected investment toward clean technology. Batteries have made up the lion\u2019s share of this investment \u2013 as much as 77%<\/a> in the third quarter of this year, compared to just 6% for solar and 1% for wind.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Southeast Asia\u2019s vast untapped<\/a> solar and wind potential, highlights the urgency for technologies that China can readily supply. With Trump\u2019s plans to trim the scope of the IRA, as well as scaling back on global solar and wind initiatives to focus on US-centric industries, China\u2019s role in meeting Southeast Asia\u2019s clean energy needs will likely continue to grow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the rapidly growing EV market, Chinese automakers hold in excess of 70%<\/a> of Southeast Asia\u2019s EV market share, compared to Tesla\u2019s negligible 4%<\/a> in the region during the first quarter of this year. Although the US has ramped up domestic battery investments and, to a lesser extent, EV production, these developments are likely to target its domestic market \u2013 one of the world\u2019s largest car markets. With Chinese EV manufacturers bolstering their investments in Southeast Asia, while US carmakers hold<\/a> back or withdraw, China\u2019s rise in this important sector seems unstoppable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Critical minerals: a geopolitical battleground<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A successful green energy transition hinges on access to key minerals such as nickel and rare earths \u2013 resources that Southeast Asia holds in abundance. 27% of global nickel reserves are located in Indonesia and the Philippines and more than a third of global rare-earth elements are concentrated in Myanmar and Vietnam, according to data<\/a> from the US Geological Survey. These resources position Southeast Asia as a critical player in the global supply chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China maintains a firm grip on 80% <\/a>of the global critical minerals supply chain, with investments extending across Southeast Asia. Myanmar currently supplies more than half<\/a> of China\u2019s rare earth imports, while Indonesia accounted for the majority<\/a> of China\u2019s nickel product imports. These dynamics underscore China as a key partner for Southeast Asian nations, whose mineral industries are deeply intertwined with Chinese demand and investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/div>
\u00a0A worker stands next to nickel bags at the PT Vale Indonesia nickel plant in Sorowako (Image: OPA Images \/ Alamy\u00a0)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The US, meanwhile, has been making strides to secure their critical mineral supplies, through initiatives like the Mineral Security Partnership<\/a>, aiming to reduce reliance on supply chains that are affiliated with China. However, Trump\u2019s second term is likely to emphasise strengthening US domestic mining and processing, potentially limiting US engagement in Southeast Asia\u2019s mineral sector. Moving forward, with Tesla\u2019s CEO Elon Musk backing Trump, the US may shift toward clean technology options where they can have more control over the value chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exclusionary policies, such as barring Chinese-affiliated cleantech products, are likely to escalate under Trump, complicating the landscape for Southeast Asian exporters. Companies in the region that rely on Chinese investments, technology or supply chains may face barriers to accessing the growing US market due to increased scrutiny or sanctions. These dynamics could create significant uncertainty for Southeast Asia\u2019s exporters, particularly in industries tied to renewable energy and advanced technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Areas of engagement and disengagement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Future US engagement with Southeast Asia is also likely to emphasise emerging energy technologies that have strong interrelations with US industry, such as small nuclear reactors or carbon capture. These technologies, while controversial, could gain traction under Trump, with a number of his administration picks vocal supporters<\/a> of these technologies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s financial investments in Southeast Asia\u2019s renewable energy sector are unmatched. According to the Lowy Institute, China is the largest single source of international renewable finance<\/a> for the region. This financial muscle has enabled projects ranging from solar farms to hydropower plants, further cementing Beijing\u2019s role as a key energy partner for Southeast Asian nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The US, meanwhile, has relied on the establishment of transition initiatives such as the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) to counterbalance China\u2019s influence on energy transitions in the region. These partnerships, co-led in Indonesia by the US and in Vietnam by Japan, aim to accelerate the transition away from coal. While the effectiveness of the JETPs remains unclear, with mixed signals in both policy and investment, a Trump administration\u2019s potential withdrawal from such partnerships risks reducing the region\u2019s access to energy transition-related finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All may not be lost when it comes to US engagement in southeast Asia\u2019s energy transitions, however. The presence of US corporate giants such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft in the region could help drive clean energy adoption, regardless of US foreign policy positions. The US is one of the leading investors<\/a> in capital projects in Southeast Asia, with Microsoft announcing a USD 2 billion<\/a> cloud infrastructure project in Malaysia and Amazon committing USD 9 billion<\/a> in Singapore \u2013 both of which come with ambitious clean energy targets. While these companies are likely to rely on Chinese solar panels, their presence could spur broader green energy investments in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Southeast Asia\u2019s political and business leaders will be watching developments closely and, in 2025, may have some tough decisions to make about the future pathways of their energy transitions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China\u2019s role will only become more important, but southeast Asian leaders will have difficult decisions to make, writes energy analyst Putra Adhiguna<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":60061209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","categories":[757],"tags":[17073,50040720,600,13817],"country":[20000110,50040717,20000117,50040715,50040700],"class_list":["post-60061135","opinion","type-opinion","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-energy-transition","tag-geopolitics","tag-trade","tag-us-china","country-china","country-indonesia","country-myanmar","country-philippines","country-united-states-of-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAnalysis: Southeast Asia\u2019s energy transition under a Trump presidency<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"China\u2019s role will only become more important, but southeast Asian leaders will have difficult decisions to make, writes energy analyst Putra Adhiguna\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysis: Southeast Asia\u2019s energy transition under a Trump presidency\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China\u2019s role will only become more important, but southeast Asian leaders will have difficult decisions to make, writes energy analyst Putra Adhiguna\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-09-01T08:00:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/A-newspapers-front-page-reports-on-US-election-results_Tatan-Syuflana_Associated-Press-_Alamy_2YGBCR7-1200px-copy.jpeg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/\",\"name\":\"Analysis: Southeast Asia\u2019s energy transition under a Trump presidency\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/A-newspapers-front-page-reports-on-US-election-results_Tatan-Syuflana_Associated-Press-_Alamy_2YGBCR7-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-11-22T16:31:46+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-09-01T08:00:47+00:00\",\"description\":\"China\u2019s role will only become more important, but southeast Asian leaders will have difficult decisions to make, writes energy analyst Putra Adhiguna\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/analysis-southeast-asias-energy-transition-under-a-trump-presidency\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/A-newspapers-front-page-reports-on-US-election-results_Tatan-Syuflana_Associated-Press-_Alamy_2YGBCR7-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/A-newspapers-front-page-reports-on-US-election-results_Tatan-Syuflana_Associated-Press-_Alamy_2YGBCR7-1200px-copy.jpeg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":800,\"caption\":\"2YGBCR7 A man shows a newspaper he is reading whose front-page reports on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday, Nov. 7, 2024, in Jakarta, Indonesia. 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