{"id":60100579,"date":"2025-09-22T13:17:29","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T12:17:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?post_type=opinion&p=60100579"},"modified":"2025-09-23T10:00:47","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T09:00:47","slug":"chinas-greatest-losses-from-floods-and-typhoons-are-indirect","status":"publish","type":"opinion","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/chinas-greatest-losses-from-floods-and-typhoons-are-indirect\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s greatest losses from floods and typhoons are indirect"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

For three days in July, Beijing was hit<\/a> by downpours of unprecedented intensity that led to 44 people losing their lives. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thousands of properties were damaged, as were hundreds of kilometres of roads, hundreds of bridges and numerous hydropower installations. The city activated its highest level of emergency response and evacuated 104,000 people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though unprecedented, this extreme event did not come out of the blue. Between 1984 and 2021, direct losses from weather disasters in China averaged CNY 217 billion<\/a> (USD 30 billion) per year, shows China Meteorological Administration data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year\u2019s China Climate Change Blue Book<\/a> notes that China is vulnerable to climate-change impacts and is warming faster than the global average, with extreme-weather events becoming both more frequent and more intense. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how many such events can be linked to human-induced climate change? And how much of their cost can be blamed on it? This is what the science of extreme-event attribution aims to quantify.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myself and colleagues at Tsinghua University\u2019s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy examined the droughts, floods, typhoons and cold waves recorded in the 2014 to 2020 yearbooks of China\u2019s meteorological disasters. Drawing on the methods of the latest Chinese research into extreme-event attribution, we concluded<\/a> that an average of 27% of the resulting direct losses (about CNY 80 billion) could be attributed to human-induced climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Less easy to calculate, and even to notice, are the indirect climate-change-related losses arising from those same events. These losses, often stemming from supply chain disruption, are in fact even higher, at CNY 91.1 billion. To reduce such losses, we need locally tailored adaptation and supply-chain resilience strategies, which take into account the types of disasters most likely to strike a particular area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The visible, direct losses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We calculated that, between 2014 and 2020, droughts, floods, storms (referring here to typhoons) and cold waves caused direct losses of CNY 298 billion a year, on average, or about 0.36% of GDP. About 27% of that, CNY 79.8 billion, is attributable to human-induced climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change has significantly increased the incidence of storms and droughts, while the risk of cold waves has reduced. The picture is less clear when it comes to floods, which cause more economic losses in China than any other type of disaster. Climate change has two contrary effects on floods. It increases daily extreme rainfall but reduces persistent rainfall. In other words, short bursts of very heavy rain become more frequent and intense but there are fewer long-lasting periods of steady rain. This makes it harder to attribute flooding and associated losses to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specifically, 58% of direct losses (CNY 25.5 billion) from droughts can be attributed to climate change. The figure for floods is 10% (CNY 18.1 billion) and for storms 81% (CNY 47.3 billion). Climate change also averted CNY 11.1 billion in losses from cold waves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In sectoral terms, agriculture and manufacturing suffer the most attributable direct losses \u2013 CNY 32.1 billion and CNY 28.6 billion respectively, or 40% and 36% of total attributable losses. These are followed by water infrastructure (15%) and transportation (6%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"man<\/div>
Drought-affected fields in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan province, south-west China, June 2019 (Image: Imaginechina \/ Sipa US \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

These losses are very unevenly distributed across the country and can account for up to 1.27% of provincial GDP, as they do in Gansu. Losses from drought are concentrated in the north \u2013 in Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin provinces, as well as Inner Mongolia \u2013 and in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan in the south-west. The manufacturing regions of the south-east coast and the Yangtze basin \u2013 including Guangdong, Zhejiang and Shandong \u2013 see the highest losses from storms. These are also the regions where the greatest overall extreme-weather losses are suffered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The invisible, indirect losses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Extreme weather doesn\u2019t just harm people and property where it strikes. Impacts on supply chains can hamper trade and industry and so cause indirect losses in otherwise unaffected regions or industries. This is known as \u201closs amplification\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disruption to some vital industries, such as steelmaking, petroleum and coking coal, can have varied and widespread impacts elsewhere. The loss of crops to drought or flood can cause indirect losses to retailers, restaurants, traders and hauliers. Damage to road and water infrastructure and services can also hamper the operation of other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic statistics on disasters often only include the direct losses, but a complete picture requires indirect ones too. Our research shows that direct losses attributable to climate change create indirect losses in other industries and regions to the value of CNY 91 billion per year, bringing total attributable losses to CNY 171 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For floods, storms and cold waves, indirect losses are greater than direct. Loss amplification is greatest for floods and storms, mostly because a greater number of industries are affected. It is less of an issue for drought, which affects mostly agriculture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n