In December 2022, fireworks lit up the sky over Lusail stadium, north of Doha. At the centre stood Lionel Messi, arms raised, World Cup trophy in hand, as thousands celebrated around him. It was a moment of triumph for Messi, for Argentina and for Qatar, the first Middle Eastern country to host one of the world\u2019s most iconic sporting events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Qatar had won the bid in 2010. In the 12 years that followed, the country underwent an infrastructural transformation. Stadiums rose from scratch, highways were laid, hotels reshaped the skyline. A nation readied itself to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And yet, as the World Cup unfolded, another group became impossible to ignore. Not those inside the stadium that December night, but those who had built it. Hundreds of thousands of migrant workers who had laboured under a desert sun worsened by climate change. Many died<\/a>. They showed what extreme heat can do to those who construct the world\u2019s grandest visions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This is more than a cautionary tale. It is a glimpse into a future where extreme heat disrupts labour forces, reshapes economies and challenges the very foundations of global infrastructure development schemes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n One such scheme is the Belt and Road Initiative<\/a> (BRI) launched by China in 2013.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The scale is clear. Thus far, China has allocated around USD 1\u202ftrillion<\/a> in loans and investments to BRI projects, including power plants, railways, ports, telecommunications networks, and other large infrastructure developments. But what is also clear is that the BRI is unfolding in some of the world\u2019s most heat-vulnerable regions, spanning Africa, South Asia, and the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Many nations along these corridors already struggle with fragile infrastructure and limited resources to combat climate shocks. As the heat intensifies, the cost of strategies to keep workers safe \u2013 cooling systems, adjusted work schedules, reduced hours \u2013 will rise, straining the very projects meant to drive economic development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Construction, agriculture and extraction depend on long hours of outdoor work. Yet our modelling suggests that by the end of the century, heat stress could reduce feasible working time by up to 25% in the worst-affected sites.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Because much of the BRI is financed through long-term loans that mature decades after completion, these chronic hits to output can translate into weaker cash flows and delayed repayment. The economics of labour-intensive projects could be undermined by the rising cost of keeping workers safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Such pressures raise a critical question: Can China\u2019s BRI remain financially and operationally sustainable under intensifying heat stress? As temperatures climb, so too does the likelihood of the answer being no.<\/p>\n\n\n\n We have modelled<\/a> two possible futures. The first follows a low-emission pathway, where aggressive climate action drives global CO2 emissions to net zero by around 2075. The second envisions a world without effective climate policies, leading to a medium-to-high emission trajectory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The contrast between these scenarios is stark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under the high-emission pathway, labour productivity could plummet by more than 30% in some regions by the late 21st century. Productivity losses in industries such as agriculture and construction could be three times greater than in a low-emission future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Take the Thar Desert in south-eastern Pakistan, a region with relentless heat, minimal rainfall and land too parched for cultivation. Here, amid the sand and the dust, lies one of the world\u2019s largest lignite coal deposits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In 2014, the Engro Thar coal power project (Thar-II) was launched to help alleviate Pakistan\u2019s chronic energy shortages. This cornerstone of the BRI\u2019s China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was completed five years later, but now faces a future increasingly imperilled by rising temperatures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Our model shows that if emissions continue on a medium-to-high scenario, labour productivity at the Thar Engro project could drop by nearly a quarter. This will mean about three months of lost work each year by 2100, as rising heat makes it harder for workers to endure long hours outdoors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For those who call the Thar desert home, life has always been precarious, dependent on the success of an unpredictable monsoon. Locals rely on rearing livestock and seasonal agriculture. Women walk miles to collect water. And a single failed monsoon can mean acute fodder shortages for livestock. In this world, the promise of a stable job offers a way out of the cycle of drought.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since operations began in 2019, drawn by this promise, young men have flocked to the open-air Thar mine, working even during the hottest part of the day. Last summer, temperatures reached 44C<\/a> at the nearest official weather post to the coalfield \u2013 the Chhor station in eastern Sindh, on the edge of the Thar region. That reading, from 12 June 2025, captures only the ambient air temperature; wet-bulb conditions at the open-pit mine, factoring in humidity and direct sun exposure, would be considerably more punishing for workers on shift. The relentless heat blurs the line between economic opportunity and physical peril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the Thar Desert, heat shapes how the mine operates. Reporting from the site by media outlet Dawn describes<\/a> a workday structured around peak temperatures, including long pauses in the middle of the day. One driver told Dawn<\/a> his dumper cab is air\u2011conditioned and noted strict safety protocols, including carrying water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Such adaptations \u2013 adjusted shifts, cooling infrastructure, hydration protocols \u2013 are the minimum required to keep operations running. But they add cost, and if temperatures continue to climb, they raise hard questions about the long-term financial viability of coal mining in one of the hottest places on Earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While coal remains central to Pakistan\u2019s energy strategy, the escalating burden of climate adaptation signals a pressing need to rethink the country\u2019s reliance on fossil fuels. The Thar region faces a dilemma: whether to continue exploiting one of the world\u2019s largest lignite deposits or to accelerate a transition toward cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Coal burning causes an estimated 1.1-1.3 million global deaths annually from pollution, with women and children living near coal mines being particularly vulnerable<\/a> due to soil and water contamination. Worse still, Thar\u2019s lignite, has a lower heating value than many other types of coal, so more must be burned to generate the same amount of power,\u00a0meaning higher CO2 emissions<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\nRising temperatures push down productivity<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Desert coal miners face an uncertain future<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Adaptation, transition and greening BRI<\/h2>\n\n\n\n