{"id":60128203,"date":"2026-04-17T14:40:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T13:40:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/?post_type=photo_story&p=60128203"},"modified":"2026-04-17T14:40:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T13:40:36","slug":"the-coffee-farms-weighing-climate-and-the-market-in-brazil","status":"publish","type":"photo_story","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/food\/the-coffee-farms-weighing-climate-and-the-market-in-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"The coffee farms weighing climate and the market in Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Edson Paes, 53, has single-handedly cultivated 12,000 organic Arabica coffee plants on three hectares of land since he was 14. His life\u2019s work grows in the town of Po\u00e7o Fundo, southern Minas Gerais. This state in south-eastern Brazil is one of the country\u2019s main coffee growing regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, however, his work has become increasingly difficult because of climate change. He says a drought last year brought 45 days without rain: \u201cThe coffee suffered a lot.\u201d Rising temperatures are also taking their toll. On his land, coffee leaves with brownish spots reveal sunscald, a problem linked to temperatures too high for cultivation. \u201cStanding all day under this sun is getting difficult,\u201d Paes tells Dialogue Earth on a hot January afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paes is far from alone in facing these challenges. Five<\/a> consecutive Arabica coffee harvests have been affected by climatic events such as heatwaves, droughts and frosts. A study<\/a> by Brazil\u2019s Federal University of Itajub\u00e1 (Unifei) published in 2024 indicates that, as global warming and water stress intensify, between 35% and 75% of the areas in Brazil currently planted with Arabica coffee could become economically unviable by the end of the century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"Farmer<\/div>
Edson Paes endures a very hot day on his 3-hectare coffee plantation in Po\u00e7o Fundo, southern Minas Gerais (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"Hand<\/div>
This coffee plant on Paes\u2019s farm bears the marks of sunscald, a problem linked to temperatures that are too high for cultivation (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

These climate-related challenges have pushed up prices as the global supply tightens. Even with shipments falling by 20% between 2024 and 2025, Brazil \u2013 already the world\u2019s leading<\/a> coffee producer and exporter \u2013 registered record export revenue of USD 15.5 billion last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Asia is becoming<\/a> the new growth centre of the global coffee market, with rising consumption in China, India, Indonesia and Vietnam turning the region into a major force as it shapes demand, caf\u00e9 culture and future industry trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A region driven by coffee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Coffee \u201cmakes everything happen\u201d in Po\u00e7o Fundo, according to Rosiel de Lima, the town\u2019s mayor. Its 16,000 inhabitants rely on family farming as the driving force of the local economy. Many of the beans are destined for export. Almost all of Paes\u2019s production is sent to Europe, Japan and the US via Coopfam, a cooperative comprising nearly 500 family farmers that is currently seeking authorisation to export to China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"Man<\/div>
Po\u00e7o Fundo\u2019s mayor Rosiel de Lima, who is also a coffee farmer, says some kind of adverse weather affects production every year (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"Aerial<\/div>
The 16,000 inhabitants of Po\u00e7o Fundo rely on farming to drive the local economy \u2013 the local coffee cooperative, Coopfam, comprises nearly 500 family farmers (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

For Coopfam, entering the Chinese market is a strategic growth opportunity<\/a> beyond its traditional European buyers, which currently absorb more than 90% of its exports. The cooperative sees China\u2019s fast-growing coffee demand as an \u201cinfinite potential\u201d market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another coffee farmer and member of Coopfam, Lima lost 75% of his crop in a hail storm in 2021. Last year, a drought in the middle of the rainy season reduced the quality of the beans, contributing to a 40% drop in his coffee income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEvery year there\u2019s some kind of adverse weather: hail, frost, cold winds, drought, rain during flowering, at the wrong time,\u201d explains the mayor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many producers are adapting by replacing older plants with varieties that are more productive, and resistant to water stress and disease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"Close-up<\/div>
This malformed coffee bean is the victim of lengthening droughts, intensifying heat and increasingly irregular rainfall (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"A<\/div>
Many producers are betting on new varieties of Arabica beans \u2013 such as Acau\u00e3 Novo, Arara and Para\u00edso \u2013 which are more productive and more resistant to water stress and disease (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth) \u00a0\u00a0<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"A<\/div>
To protect coffee seedlings from hail storms, some producers have installed protective nets over their nurseries (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth) \u00a0<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Others, like Paes, are using trees to help protect their crops. He has planted cedar and African mahogany trees to shade his coffee plants. He also practises techniques that improve the soil\u2019s moisture retention, such as applying more fertiliser and keeping the earth between the coffee trees covered by planting grasses and legumes. Confident in this year\u2019s harvest, he holds up a branch laden with beans. But then he adds: \u201cYou see a good patch of coffee, but right in front of it, another that has none. It\u2019s not as uniform as it used to be.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s like this in practically all the plantations in the area,\u201d says Alexander Ferreira, an agricultural engineer and technician at Coopfam.

Over the past four years, producers have spent over BRL 40 million (USD 7.9 million) in federal loans on restoring coffee crops, almost all of it in Minas Gerais state, where climate change is already altering the production calendar and yields. The author of Unifei\u2019s 2024 study, C\u00e1ssia Gabriele Dias, is a meteorologist and researcher at the university. She explains that droughts have become longer, heat has intensified and rainfall has become more irregular in the state. This affects crucial stages, such as flowering and the formation of coffee beans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Aerial<\/div>
Most of the coffee plantations in Minas Gerais are concentrated at higher altitudes, mitigating the effects of global warming \u2013 for the time being (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"A<\/div>
The soil on Douglas Lago\u2019s coffee plantation in Santa Rita de Caldas retains more moisture because he plants grass, which keeps the earth covered and reduces evaporation during heatwaves (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Most of the coffee plantations in Minas Gerais are concentrated at higher altitudes, which, for the time being, mitigates the effects of global warming. \u201cRegions further south, such as southern Minas Gerais, tend to remain more suitable. But they are not free from risks,\u201d Dias tells Dialogue Earth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lima says the rise in coffee prices has provided some compensation to producers affected by the climate. According to Ferreira, the price<\/a> of a 60 kg bag<\/a> of conventional coffee in early 2025 shot up to more than double the 2023 price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Organic production suffers <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the costs of maintaining productivity in the face of climate change are rising, reducing real profits. Ros\u00e2ngela Paiva and her husband, Luis Carlos, are considering installing irrigation to cope with the increasingly frequent<\/a> periods of heat and drought, particularly between July and October when flowering occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"A<\/div>
Ros\u00e2ngela Paiva is considering installing an irrigation system on her plantation to cope with intensifying heat and droughts; she says coffee production has become very expensive (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"Man<\/div>
Coopfam\u2019s production supervisor surveys its coffee packing machines. The cooperative is currently seeking authorisation to export to China (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cProducing today is very expensive,\u201d complains Paiva. In Po\u00e7o Fundo, she cultivates 5.5 hectares for Coopfam\u2019s organic coffee line. Following organic methods, which avoids the use of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides, can increase<\/a> coffee production costs by up to 30%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strong demand has led producers to prioritise quick gains in productivity, thus switching from organic to non-organic farming. At Coopfam, the number of organic members has fallen by almost 60% in two years, to 75 coffee farmers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ferreira estimates that organic coffee will once again become more financially advantageous when the supply of beans stabilises in the market, which could happen as early as this harvest. More stable weather conditions this year have led Conab, the government agency responsible for agricultural supply statistics and policies, to forecast<\/a> a record harvest for 2026: sixty-six million bags, almost half of which will be produced in Minas Gerais. Rosana Mendes and Avair de Oliveira, also based in Po\u00e7o Fundo, switched from organic to non-organic farming in 2025. They say they apply pesticides to grasses and weeds only, not to the coffee plants. Furthermore, Coopfam\u2019s European Fairtrade certification prohibits or restricts<\/a> the use of the more potent pesticides, such as glyphosate, which provides a layer of environmental protection even for non-organic crops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Clusters<\/div>
Some Po\u00e7o Fundo coffee farmers have decided to move away from organic methods and return to pesticide use in response to rising costs, but are applying them more judiciously than before (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The couple have also replanted their coffee crop with more productive and resilient Arabica varieties \u2013 a strategy that has been gaining ground among producers in southern Minas Gerais. With these adaptations, they plan to increase production by 260% by 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe future of coffee farming is a mystery,\u201d says Mendes. \u201cWe are studying and learning every day from the climate, from nature, from the plant itself, to adapt to whatever is necessary.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The power of trees<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme weather, tree-shaded coffee plantations like Paes\u2019s are gaining ground among small-scale producers in southern Minas Gerais. Jo\u00e3o Ademir Pereira has planted ip\u00ea (Tabebuia<\/em>), pear, cambuc\u00e1 (Plinia edulis<\/em>) and yellow jabuticaba (Plinia cauliflora<\/em>) trees on a third of the three hectares he cultivates here. \u201cThe trees help balance the climate and soften the sun,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the shade, the coffee trees produce a crop every year; without it, they tend to alternate between seasons of high and low yield. For this cycle, Pereira expects to harvest more than 30 bags per hectare, which is in line with the national average. Almost all his harvest is destined for export.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Aerial<\/div>
Preserved Atlantic Forest trees stand next to a coffee plantation in Santa Rita de Caldas, a town neighbouring Po\u00e7o Fundo. Small-scale producers are harnessing the benefits provided by trees to stabilise their crops (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth) \u00a0\u00a0<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In partnership with German coffee roaster Tchibo, which buys Coopfam coffee, the Minas Gerais Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology (IFMG) is researching ways to control pests. These include the leaf miner, a larva that burrows into the leaves and damages the beans. Irregular rainfall and above-average temperatures encourage its spread, but studies suggest the fruit and flowers of trees planted amongst the coffee plants attract predatory wasps that help control these infestations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe need to support small-scale farmers, because they are the most vulnerable to climate change,\u201d says L\u00eada Gon\u00e7alves, an agricultural engineer and lecturer at the institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At an altitude of over a thousand metres, the mist and morning dew cool Douglas Lago\u2019s coffee trees in Santa Rita de Caldas, a town neighbouring Po\u00e7o Fundo. With plans to start exporting, his family has converted three hectares of degraded pasture into a coffee plantation for the new harvest, adding to six hectares already cultivated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast to tales of drought and extreme heat, Lago\u2019s crop has been threatened by excessive cold. In 2021, a severe frost<\/a> killed 60% of the family\u2019s 10,000 plants. After replanting, another frost wiped out a further 2,500. \u201cThe climate is our biggest challenge,\u201d says Lago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Dark<\/div>
Heavy summer rain approaches Lago\u2019s plantation in Santa Rita de Caldas. The region\u2019s irregular rainfall is prompting producers to plant trees that help protect their coffee crops (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Lago\u2019s family has planted trees to mitigate these climate impacts. As well as offering protection from the heat, they cushion their coffee crops from hail storms. The family has also increased the density of their coffee plants to reduce water stress, and they keep native bees, which boost the pollination and nutrition of the beans. \u201cIf there\u2019s no rain, there\u2019s no water in the bean; if there\u2019s no water in the bean, it doesn\u2019t produce the sugar that coffee needs,\u201d explains Lago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results are clear to see. Over the past two harvests, the family has achieved yields twice the national average. Last year, they won<\/a> the speciality coffee competition organised by the cooperatives of Minas Gerais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By turning to trees for solutions, coffee farmers like Lago are taking their first steps into agroforestry, a technique that remains largely unexplored in the region. This approach takes inspiration from Arabica\u2019s native environment \u2013 the tropical highlands of Ethiopia. While planting trees in coffee plantations can assist in reducing heat and wind, comprehensive agroforestry integrates trees into a more complex system, in which they regulate soil moisture and the flow of water, carbon and nutrients. Agroforestry can create a more stable environment in which to grow coffee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAgroforestry is more self-sufficient,\u201d explains Rafael Furtado, a local farmer with a master\u2019s in agroecology and rural development. \u201cIt produces more resources than the system requires and relies less on external inputs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\n
\"Man<\/div>
Rafael Furtado has turned to agroforestry systems for his two-hectare Po\u00e7o Fundo coffee farm, and is seeking organic certification with a view to exporting the results (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\n
\"Close-up<\/div>
Furtado says the productivity of his farm is not satisfactory yet \u2013 but he has achieved \u2018really good quality\u2019 coffee (Image: Lucas Ninno<\/a> \/ Dialogue Earth)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

A study<\/a> published in 2020 by the journal Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment indicates agroforestry systems can mitigate the effects of extreme weather. Projecting ahead to the year 2050, the study concludes that agroforestry could preserve up to 75% of Brazil\u2019s coffee-growing areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When Furtado moved to his two-hectare farm in Po\u00e7o Fundo four years ago, he inherited a coffee plantation that had relied on pesticides and chemical fertilisers. Since then, he has been eliminating synthetic inputs and developing an agroforestry system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMy productivity hasn\u2019t been satisfactory so far, but we\u2019ve already achieved a really good quality,\u201d says the farmer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furtado is now working to make his agroforestry system economically viable: accessing government credit for family farms; seeking organic certification with a view to exporting; testing new varieties and assessing which crops grown alongside coffee can earn an income, such as bananas, avocados and African mahogany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

The Brazilian government\u2019s Pronaf Agroecologia<\/a> fund provides up to BRL 250,000 (USD 50,000) per farmer to finance organic or agroecological practices. But as the most recent 12-month data release shows, financing totalled<\/a> just BRL 10 million across all family farming sectors, from vegetables to cacao and coffee. International sustainable finance remains similarly early-stage: the Chinese agriculture business platform, COFCO International, is running<\/a> a carbon footprint pilot for Brazilian coffee; Europe\u2019s Rabo Foundation, together with COFCO, has launched<\/a> a BRL 1.6 million impact-credit line for water resilience in Minas Gerais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furtado says coffee agroforestry still has \u201cvery low uptake\u201d in Brazil due to a lack of technical knowledge, the need for more complex management, and greater returns in quality than in productivity. Even so, he sees this model as the best solution in the face of growing climate challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOnce there is more research, institutional support and greater experience, it will be far more worthwhile to adopt this more diversified and complex system than to remain in monoculture in a scenario of climate extremes,\u201d he says.

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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