{"id":110596,"date":"2023-08-31T09:55:05","date_gmt":"2023-08-31T09:55:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=110596"},"modified":"2023-09-05T08:53:50","modified_gmt":"2023-09-05T08:53:50","slug":"china-carbon-market-turns-two-how-has-it-performed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/china-carbon-market-turns-two-how-has-it-performed\/","title":{"rendered":"As China\u2019s carbon market turns two, how has it performed?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

China\u2019s national emissions trading scheme (ETS), which turned two in July, has largely met its opening goals, experts have told China Dialogue. These were to build market awareness, set up trading mechanisms, and guide companies to pay attention to their emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the nascent market still faces many roadblocks, such as problems with data integrity and lack of effective legislation, they added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s ETS, the world\u2019s largest of its kind in terms of emissions regulated, covers companies that together emit three times more than those covered by the European Union\u2019s ETS. The central government considers it one of its \u201ccore policy tools<\/a>\u201d for achieving the national climate goals announced<\/a> by President Xi Jinping three years ago: to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and reach carbon neutrality before 2060.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market covers China\u2019s power sector, which accounts for the most emissions. The plan is to at some point bring in other heavy emitters, such as iron and steel, petrochemicals and building materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central government is also due to revive the country\u2019s voluntary carbon credit system by the end of this year.<\/a> This step will facilitate power companies to offset their emissions and allow stakeholders in other industries to participate in the national carbon market, experts said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectation \u2018largely met\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

After a decade of preparation<\/a>, China\u2019s national ETS went online in July 2021. Officials from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), which is in charge of the market, have expressed satisfaction with its performance so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Li Gao, director-general of the MEE\u2019s Department of Climate Change, told<\/a> the 21st Century Business Herald, a Chinese financial newspaper, that the market has \u201cbasically met\u201d the government\u2019s expectation. Its operation has been \u201cstable\u201d, its regulations \u201cimproved comprehensively\u201d and its method for allocating rights to emit \u201coptimised constantly\u201d, Li said.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market\u2019s pricing mechanism is \u201cgradually showing its effect\u201d, noted<\/a> Lai Xiaoming, chair of Shanghai Environment Energy Exchange, which runs the market\u2019s trading platform. Companies\u2019 awareness of reducing emissions has been \u201ceffectively raised\u201d, Lai said at a conference marking the second anniversary of the ETS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

240 million tonnes<\/p>

of CO2 traded as \u2018allowances\u2019 on the national carbon market in the two years since it opened \u2013 around 2% of China\u2019s emissions in 2021<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The MEE currently hands out free emission \u201callowances\u201d to power companies. These give firms the right to emit a certain amount of CO2 and are calculated based on emissions intensity, meaning the volume of emissions per unit of output. If a company emits more CO2 than their allocated allowances can cover, it must buy more allowances from the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the national ETS has been running for two years, it has only completed one \u201ccompliance period\u201d. During the first compliance period, 1,833 companies handed in enough allowances from July to December 2021 to cover their emissions for 2019 and 2020, while 178 firms partly covered their emissions, the MEE said<\/a>. The compliance rate of allowances reached 99.5%, it noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power companies are now in their second compliance period. This requires them to account for their 2021 and 2022 emissions, and will finish at the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of 14 July, a total of 239.9 million tonnes of emissions allowances had changed hands on the market and the cumulative turnover had reached 11.03 billion yuan (US$1.54 billion), according to the latest statistics<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both figures are dwarfed by those of the EU ETS, which has been running for nearly 20 years. In 2022 alone, it saw the trading of 12.5 billion tonnes of emissions allowances and registered a record-breaking 865 billion euros ($958 billion) turnover, according to Carbon Market Year in Review 2022<\/a>, published by Refinitiv, a provider of financial markets data and infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe liquidity of the national carbon market is low and seasonal. Transaction levels are usually low,\u201d Zhang Jianhong, executive director of the Environmental Technology and Economics Branch of the China Society of Technology and Economics, told the Securities Times<\/a>, a Chinese financial newspaper.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because most companies only buy or sell allowances to fulfil their market duty, transactions tend to concentrate near the end of each compliance period, leading to \u201cimbalanced\u201d trading activity and a slow market most of the year, Zhang explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market has \u201csome issues\u201d that need resolving, Huang Ming, executive director of the Research Centre of Sustainable Development at Fudan University, told the same newspaper. \u201cFor example, the transaction volume needs to be boosted, market coverage is relatively narrow and trade products need to be expanded,\u201d Huang noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Building market awareness<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There is a consensus among the experts spoken to by China Dialogue that the short-term goal of the national carbon market isn\u2019t to yield instant and obvious emissions cuts, contrary to the expectations<\/a> of some critics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, it aims to let stakeholders understand the concept of carbon trading, guide them to monitor, report and verify their emissions, and show them the benefits of doing so, the experts say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One key mission is to help businesses realise that emitting CO2 costs money and reducing emissions can help save money, Chen Zhibin, senior manager for carbon markets and pricing at adelphi, a Berlin-based thinktank, tells China Dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Industrial<\/div>
A coal-fired power plant in Taizhou, east China\u2019s Jiangsu province. In June, China Energy, which owns the site, installed spherical tanks capable of storing 500,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, making this the largest<\/a> coal carbon capture facility in Asia. (Image: Tang Dehong \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Chen says that, currently, the main function of the national carbon market is to raise companies\u2019 efficiency and lower their emissions intensity, which matches the fact that China\u2019s overall CO2 emissions and economy are still growing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c[The market] has not set restrictions in advance on how much CO2 fossil fuel power companies can emit in total,\u201d Chen notes. \u201cThis is different from the positioning of the EU ETS, which puts a cap on companies\u2019 overall emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the market\u2019s launch, China\u2019s power companies, which collectively produce 40%<\/a> of national CO2 emissions, have for the first time had to face a direct cost for their CO2 emissions, and this has led to new business needs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chen notes that some companies have realised they need dedicated staff or departments to handle carbon affairs, while others have begun to think about potential emissions-reduction methods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This also means that carbon is \u201con the books\u201d of those companies and \u201cneeds to be factored into business decisions, much like commodity prices or taxation\u201d, says Huw Slater who led the 2022 China Carbon Pricing Survey<\/a>. The survey received more than 400 responses from stakeholders in the power sector and other heavy-emitting sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

Carbon emissions trading has begun to weigh on companies\u2019 investment decisions, the survey found. \u201cOver half of our survey respondents say that the carbon market would already have at least a moderate effect on their investment decisions by this year. And over 70% expect the impact level to be at least moderate by 2025,\u201d says Slater, an energy and climate specialist at environmental charity ClientEarth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, over 20% of the respondents predicted the market to \u201cstrongly\u201d impact their companies\u2019 decisions by the middle of the decade. \u201cA strong impact on investment decisions suggests that it will be a very substantial factor in companies\u2019 decision making,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But other experts say that while it is important that power companies are held responsible for their emissions, they also need to be free to operate without heavy financial burdens, especially when many are tasked with bolstering the country\u2019s energy security<\/a>, a key economic task for China right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judging from the market\u2019s design, the central government wanted to avoid putting too much pressure on power companies, so that they can generate enough electricity for society, Chen says. Key power companies can ask for government bailouts if they struggle to fulfil their market duties, he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data and legislation challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s national carbon market still has various issues, with data integrity regarded as prominent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just two months after the market\u2019s launch, a power plant emitting around 10 million tonnes<\/a> of CO2 a year was caught doctoring its emissions data \u2013 a landmark fraud case that had affected at least 1 million tonnes of emissions allowances worth some US$7 million<\/a>. Data issues were the reason the market had delayed its expansion into other sectors, reported Caijing<\/a>, a Chinese financial outlet.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cData is a very important foundation of a carbon market,\u201d Song Yutong, carbon analyst at Refinitiv, tells China Dialogue. \u201cOnly when the market has a solid data foundation can it grow in an orderly and healthy manner.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Song says that the MEE has taken a series of actions to enhance data accuracy. For example, it released a notice in March last year, instructing companies to carry out a monthly inspection into the key parameters of their emissions and submit the results online. It also launched a research project<\/a> in June this year, aimed at building a long-term mechanism to help manage data quality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn the future, when China\u2019s national carbon market incorporates more sectors, managing and monitoring the quality of the data reported by different industries and companies will be a very important subject and challenge,\u201d Song adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MEE has not announced a clear timeline for the market\u2019s expansion. However, studies have been launched recently to examine the possibilities of bringing several sectors into the fold, including iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, chemicals and aviation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The money companies spend on allowances might far exceed their fines<\/blockquote>Zhao Xiaolu, Environmental Defense Fund<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Another major hurdle facing the national carbon market is the absence of a high-level law. China does not have overarching legislation for climate change or a law for managing CO2 emissions. As a result, the ETS currently follows a set of internal regulations issued by the MEE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe ministerial regulations have a lot of restrictions,\u201d Zhao Xiaolu, director of global climate change at the Beijing Office of the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), tells China Dialogue. \u201cFor example, it cannot issue severe enough penalties, resulting in the fact that the amount of money companies spend on allowances might far exceed their fines if they don\u2019t fulfil their market duties.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently, the maximum fine for a company is only 30,000 yuan<\/a> ($4,200), a fraction of what it could save by breaking the market rules. But Zhao says a state-level legislative document being formulated by the State Council, China\u2019s top administrative agency, is likely to be published soon, as the MEE\u2019s Department of Climate Change has repeatedly indicated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carbon prices to \u2018rise steadily\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism<\/a> by the EU \u2013 which imposes a carbon levy on certain emission-intensive products originating outside the bloc \u00ad\u2013 has brought much attention to the difference between the cost of emitting CO2 in China and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The carbon price of China\u2019s national ETS currently hovers at around 60 yuan ($8) per tonne, while its EU equivalent is more than 10 times higher, at around 100 euros ($110) per tonne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s important to remember that carbon prices are essentially a product of their unique regulatory and economic environment,\u201d Slater says. \u201cComparing them across jurisdictions is not particularly useful without context.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, the EU has taken some \u201cdeliberate\u201d steps to make the EU ETS its primary driver of emission reductions in energy and industry sectors, and those regulatory changes have resulted in a higher carbon price, Slater explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn China, on the other hand, the market is still one of the many policies in the energy space that are often overlapping, sometimes co-beneficial, and have similar objectives,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

Slater\u2019s survey found that stakeholders predict China\u2019s national carbon price will \u201crise steadily\u201d in the years to come, increasing to 87 yuan ($12) per tonne in 2025 and 130 yuan ($18) per tonne by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking into the future, the experts are hopeful that China will relaunch its voluntary carbon credits programme, the China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) scheme<\/a>, by the end of this year. The MEE is in the final stages of establishing its legislation, methodology and trading platform.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CCER, China\u2019s version of the Kyoto Protocol\u2019s Certified Emission Reduction, was launched in 2012 but suddenly halted in 2017 due to small transaction volume and a lack of standards<\/a> in carbon audits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The programme is important to the national carbon market and its pricing because, under the current rules, companies can use CCERs to account for up to 5% of their annual emissions. Demand for CCER credits could reach 350\u2013400 million<\/a> tonnes per year, as China Dialogue reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Refinitiv\u2019s Song anticipates that the looming revival of CCERs will help drive up participation in carbon trading across sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cFor some time into the future, the main participants of the national carbon market will still be the key emitting entities. But if the CCER scheme is restarted, some renewable energy projects and developers, as well as others allowed by its methodology, can all take part in the development and trading of the national carbon market,\u201d she explains.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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