While COP28 is still a month away and no one knows quite what US\u2013China climate relations will look like then, experts see collaboration between the two countries as key to combating global warming. Will they deliver another joint message of unity on climate action, as they did at the Paris and Glasgow COPs of 2015 and 2021?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A world falling short on climate action<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
The collective effort of countries to lower emissions is insufficient to meet the 1.5C or 2C warming thresholds decided at the 2015 Paris COP. That was the verdict of a recent report<\/a> on the UN\u2019s first stocktake of global climate action. It offered guidance on how plans \u2013 known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) \u2013 towards reaching the Paris goals might be updated and enhanced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the report<\/a>, to keep the 1.5C target achievable, by 2030, the world needs to have reduced its annual emissions a further 20.3-23.9 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent from current NDC commitments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There will naturally be concern about whether China, the world\u2019s largest greenhouse gas emitter, will update its NDC and step up efforts to reduce emissions. But experts say that, given it did so in 2020, it may not do so significantly again soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chris Aylett, coordinator of the Environment and Society Centre at UK-based think-tank Chatham House, says China\u2019s focus is on the enormous task of implementation, rolling out the policies and technologies needed to meet the carbon peaking and neutrality targets set by President Xi in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, this doesn\u2019t mean there won\u2019t be pressure on China at COP28 to do more, Aylett notes. The EU has recently called on<\/a> China to commit to the Global Methane Pledge<\/a>, launched at Glasgow COP26 in 2021, as well as to the global goal of tripling renewable energy deployment by 2030, featured in the recent G20 New Delhi Leaders\u2019 Declaration<\/a>. The US has called on China to contribute to multilateral climate finance, something it has resisted thus far on the principle that as a developing country, which it defines itself as, it is not required to within the UN climate process<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cChina has an established preference for underpromising and overdelivering on its climate targets, and has made clear that it will not yield to external pressure,\u201d Aylett explains. \u201cIn parallel, Chinese officials have been critical of what they consider \u2018rich-world underperformance\u2019 on climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n China could, however, announce some additional measures, such as its own long-awaited methane control plan, and a raised target for renewable energy installed capacity, said Li Shuo, senior global policy advisor at Greenpeace East Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the joint declaration made with the US in Glasgow, China stated it would create a comprehensive national action plan to reduce methane emissions from fossil energy sources, the waste sector, and agriculture. The central government says the plan is still being developed, while industry insiders say a draft has long been finalised. The delay in announcing it may have been influenced by the rocky US\u2013China relationship or China\u2019s negotiating tactics on climate issues, they say.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While the release of the methane plan is slightly behind schedule, the growth in China\u2019s installed wind and solar power is significantly ahead. Given this trend, Li Shuo said, \u201cit is widely believed that it will be no problem at all to reach the wind and solar installation targets in China\u2019s NDC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cSo, will China raise this target? Such expectations still exist.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The success of the climate conference will be measured in part by how well it moves the needle on the fossil fuel phasedown, and whether more ambitious renewable energy deployment targets are set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Aylett thinks China is unlikely to sign up to the language of fossil fuel \u2018phaseout\u2019 that the EU and others will advocate for at COP28. Meanwhile, Xie Zhenhua, China\u2019s special envoy for climate change affairs, has said that phasing out fossil fuels is \u201cunrealistic\u201d. Following the severe power outages the country experienced in 2021, estimated to have affected as much as 44%<\/a> of industrial activity, Chinese energy policy is today organised around the principle of \u201cestablishing the new before destroying the old\u201d \u2013 retiring fossil fuel infrastructure only when the new low-carbon system is fully in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, as the world\u2019s number one manufacturer of solar panels and wind turbines, Aylett thinks China \u201ccertainly has an incentive\u201d to push for a more ambitious renewables target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the first half of this year, the country\u2019s wind and solar installed capacity reached 820 gigawatts<\/a> (GW). Meanwhile, its total renewable power capacity exceeded 1,300 GW<\/a>, or 48.8% of total power capacity, putting it ahead of coal power. China\u2019s wind and solar power is expected to reach its 1,200 GW target by 2025, five years earlier than planned, found a report<\/a> by think-tank Global Energy Monitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China has the potential to push the world to reach a more ambitious 2030 target for renewable energy installations under the UN\u2019s climate process, says Yao Zhe, strategic communications director at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP), a Beijing-based think-tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the G20 Summit in September, nations including China agreed to \u201cpursue and encourage efforts\u201d to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and \u201caccelerat[e] efforts towards phasedown of unabated coal power\u201d. But it set no binding country-specific climate targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Yao Zhe, if the world can agree on a target for installed renewable energy capacity at COP28, it would favour China given the country\u2019s domestic progress on this front. \u201cHaving such an expectation will drive the market, which will benefit China\u2019s industrial exports, as well as cooperation with supply chains in other countries,\u201d said Yao Zhe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether China and the US can make new progress in climate cooperation will be a major point of interest at the COP. Since 2013, when the US\u2013China Climate Change Working Group was established, climate issues have generally been a cooperation \u201csafe zone\u201d. John Kerry, the US president\u2019s special envoy on climate change, has repeatedly said that climate is a key mutual issue, independent of any disagreements the two countries may have.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kerry\u2019s visit to China in July marked the first time the two countries have touched on climate matters since the suspension of US\u2013China climate talks in August last year. Since then, the world has been full of expectation that China and the US will resume working together on climate issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Li Shuo told China Dialogue that if relations remain stable for the rest of the year, the two countries may issue a joint statement at COP28 that includes unilateral, bilateral and multilateral elements. This would follow the example of the joint presidential statement<\/a> made in the lead up to the successful Paris COP of 2015, as well as the Glasgow statement<\/a> of 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The two countries could announce measures on climate assistance and investment, overseas energy, as well as cooperation on joint research and information sharing regarding low-carbon technologies like carbon capture and storage, Li Shuo said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He said that because US\u2013China climate talks are ongoing, it may be challenging for the two sides to reach a joint statement under the current complicated international situation. \u201cEven if a joint statement can be reached, it will be difficult for it to be as groundbreaking as the 2015 [one]. It may be more about paving the way for negotiations rather than setting the tone for the global process,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Aylett thinks the value of the US\u2013China talks is arguably more symbolic than substantive. \u201cThey represent the importance of putting differences to one side to tackle a shared challenge, and keep alive the spirit of cooperation between the two superpowers that was critical to the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether or not China will inject money into the \u201closs and damage\u201d fund \u2013 designed to compensate developing countries for unavoidable climate impacts \u2013 has been the focus of international attention. China Dialogue has previously devoted an article<\/a> to China\u2019s position on the issue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n African countries have been pushing developed ones to contribute to loss and damage compensation. A report<\/a> by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that Africa\u2019s loss and damage for 2020-2030 will cost between US$290 billion and $440 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the UN climate process principle of \u201ccommon but differentiated responsibilities\u201d, states are not equally responsible for addressing global environmental destruction, and China\u2019s \u2018developing country\u2019 status means it is not obliged to pay into the fund. However, since the formation of the convention 30 years ago, the country\u2019s economic position and emissions have grown rapidly, and it is currently the second-largest economy and top emitter. This has led developed economies such as the US and European Union to argue that it should also pay into the fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Xie Zhenhua declared at last year\u2019s COP27 that China does not have the \u201cresponsibility\u201d to contribute financially to loss and damage. But given the large sums<\/a> China has invested in building infrastructure overseas, through its Belt and Road Initiative, there is clear potential for it to contribute further towards supporting development in Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cChina can play a big role in enabling the rollout of renewable energy across the African region,\u201d says Marina Agortimevor, coordinator of the African Coal Network, a network of civil society organisations working on the energy transition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n She believes Africa could benefit from China\u2019s support for renewable energy, not only in terms of infrastructure, but also skills and technology development. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen the possibility of a comprehensive strategy around renewable energy that includes job creation, enabling local manufacturing and skills development.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The same is true for developing infrastructure that reduces and adapts to climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n[US\u2013China talks] keep alive the spirit of cooperation critical to the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015<\/blockquote>Chris Aylett, Chatham House<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
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<\/div>Contributing to global renewable energy targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
US\u2013China climate cooperation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/div>Loss and damage, and alternatives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
China can play a big role in enabling the rollout of renewable energy across the African region<\/blockquote>Marina Agortimevor, African Coal Network<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n