{"id":113589,"date":"2023-10-24T16:19:17","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T16:19:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=113589"},"modified":"2023-10-30T07:44:04","modified_gmt":"2023-10-30T07:44:04","slug":"our-take-on-the-third-belt-and-road-forum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/our-take-on-the-third-belt-and-road-forum\/","title":{"rendered":"Our take on the Third Belt and Road Forum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

After a pandemic-induced hiatus, the Third Belt and Road Forum took place on 17-18 October in Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It provided rare insight into China and member countries\u2019 aspirations for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as it enters its second decade. The BRI is evolving, with new announcements made particularly in the fields of \u201cgreen\u201d and \u201cblue\u201d (ocean) cooperation. There were hints of a more cautious approach from China. Yet, while promoting \u201csmall yet smart\u201d infrastructure projects, it did not back away from delivering large-scale finance via its development banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How exactly the new loans will land, as countries lobby for more investments while facing rising debt burdens, will become apparent in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what announcements were made? And what are the signals for the future direction of the BRI?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still big, still greening<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tom Baxter, Global China editor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a closing speech<\/a>, Xi Jinping gave an overview of the forum\u2019s outcomes and his vision of the BRI\u2019s future. It contained a blizzard of announcements, ranging from opening up greater market access to China, to a new global initiative on governing AI. Perhaps most notably, Xi indicated a doubling down on the BRI as a promoter of large-scale, debt-financed infrastructure. The two Chinese development banks most engaged with BRI lending would each be given a \u201cfinancing window\u201d worth 350 billion yuan (US$47.8 billion). The pledges were similar in scale to those announced at the First Belt and Road Forum in 2017. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

An additional 80 billion yuan ($11 billion) from the Silk Road Fund was also announced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xi stated that together this finance would contribute to promoting both large-scale \u201csignature\u201d and \u201csmall but beautiful\u201d infrastructure projects. The latter term (now translated in the official English transcript as \u201csmall yet smart\u201d) means more modest, less risky constructions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The announcement of more finance for infrastructure comes as something of a surprise. Loans to partner countries signed up to the BRI have declined over the last couple of years. Many countries find themselves in a difficult economic situation as interest rate rises accentuate debt burdens. Data from the Boston University Center for Global Development Policy shows that total loans from China\u2019s two main development banks have consistently declined since 2016. In 2021, just US$3.7 billion<\/a> worth of loans were disbursed to Belt and Road partners. Xi also indicated, however, that the new finance pledges would \u201csupport BRI projects on the basis of market and business operation\u201d \u2013 perhaps a sign of a more cautious approach to overseas financing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was an emphasis on green development at the forum, including a high-level dialogue on greening the BRI. An outcome document<\/a> on Belt and Road Green Development encouraged partners to \u201cstrengthen cooperation on green energy, support other developing countries in green and low-carbon energy development, [and] encourage countries to set targets for renewable energy deployment based on nationally determined contributions.\u201d In Xi\u2019s closing speech, \u201cgreen development\u201d formed the fourth of a list of eight cooperation areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As seen over the last few years, some of these green goals may be easier said than done<\/a>. One new scheme worth watching is the Green Investment and Finance Partnership. Could it help address the financing gap for green projects in developing countries? A pledge to train 10,000 students in green technologies by 2030, an echo of previous commitments to global south countries, may also help address capacity gaps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adding to the big numbers, Xi said that US$97 billion worth of deals were signed at the forum. Details of these projects will begin to emerge in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

African leaders look for infrastructure and finance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Justus Wanzala, Africa editor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the forum this year saw fewer national leaders attend (23, compared to 37 at the last forum in 2019), a number of important partners were in Beijing last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the African continent, Kenya\u2019s President William Ruto, Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed all attended. Africa\u2019s largest economy, Nigeria, sent Vice President Kashim Shettima. The leaders used their speeches to invite further lending for desperately needed infrastructure, and support for industrialisation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ruto called for<\/a> greater investment in energy, transport and industrial infrastructure: \u201cAfrica can become the world\u2019s clean, green, cheap global manufacturing hub if the right volume of investment is directed to our continent.\u201d He also used the forum to lobby<\/a> for a further $1 billion in loans, despite Kenya\u2019s coming crunch year for debt repayments in 2024. Nigeria, meanwhile, sought<\/a> funding for new projects. Deals were signed for $2 billion worth in the country, with \u201cletters of intent\u201d signed for an extra $4 billion, according to Reuters<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While no doubt discussed on the side lines and at bilateral meetings, debt distress was notably missing from official communications between African leaders and China. A total of eight African countries are currently debt distressed, according to the IMF<\/a>, with Chinese banks among the major bilateral lenders to a number of them. Nonetheless, African leaders\u2019 mission in Beijing last week appeared to be about securing even more financing in the push to expand and restructure their economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Low turnout, low concern in the Americas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Patrick Moore, Latin America editor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While 22 Latin American and Caribbean nations have signed up to the BRI, only the leaders of Chile and Argentina arrived in Beijing for last week\u2019s forum \u2013 a meagre turnout, but true to previous form<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a first China visit for Chile\u2019s young president, Gabriel Boric, meetings with Xi Jinping and Premier Li saw calls<\/a> for Chinese firms to invest in Chile\u2019s green hydrogen ambitions<\/a>, 5G networks, and lithium industry; a US$233 million lithium plant deal with Tsingshan was announced<\/a> during his visit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xi was keen to note<\/a> that Chile was the first South American country to establish diplomatic relations with China (in 1970), and is still seen as a key partner in the region. Boric expressed<\/a> support for China\u2019s efforts to join the Trans-Pacific trade partnership, and invited Xi for a state visit in 2024 \u2013 including a stop in Antarctica<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Argentina, the forum was a last dance for outgoing president Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez, whose visit came as campaigns wrapped up ahead of the country\u2019s fiercely contested 22 October elections. His government has sought close ties with China since 2019. During his term, Argentina formally joined<\/a> the BRI and recently received an invitation to join the BRICS bloc. While in China, Fern\u00e1ndez began the country\u2019s entry process into the New Development Bank<\/a>, the so-called \u201cBRICS bank\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"group<\/div>
Participants of the Third Belt and Road Forum on 17 October (Image: Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

At the forum, there were BRI project progress assessments<\/a> between the two countries, but no infrastructure deals of note. The top-line announcement was the upping<\/a> of Argentina\u2019s currency swap line with Beijing from $5 billion to $6.5 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For Fern\u00e1ndez, the visit seemed mainly focused on offering reassurances on the two countries\u2019 relations ahead of a potentially radical shift in the coming months, should far-right libertarian Javier Milei \u2013 who has labelled China an \u201cassassin\u201d and threatened to cut ties \u2013 emerge victorious in the second round of presidential elections on 19 November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That so many leaders did not appear in Beijing may come down to priorities. Pressing domestic crises likely trumped the grand statements and mood-setting of the forum. Meanwhile, with South America seeing some of the highest BRI investment in years<\/a> so far in 2023, leaders may feel confident about the region\u2019s position within the initiative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2018Blue cooperation\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Regina Lam, Special projects assistant editor<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From green BRI to blue BRI, the Third Belt and Road Forum for the first time included a special thematic forum<\/a> on ocean cooperation. It concluded with the unveiling of a new \u201cBlue Cooperation Initiative\u201d that laid down principles on how China could cooperate on ocean-related projects with BRI nations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The special forum\u2019s outcome document<\/a> speaks of the ocean as a source of development, post-pandemic economic recovery, and sustainable growth. It pledges to establish financial institutions for blue investments, support global aquaculture technologies, and build marine scientific research partnerships. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to multiple Chinese policy papers,<\/a> the blue economy vision is built on synergies between economic development and ecological protection. It aims to boost fisheries and marine aquaculture, shipping, offshore renewable energy, polar research, and even medical discoveries. It also covers restoring and protecting coastal ecosystems, which hold high blue carbon values and are instrumental to climate adaptation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before and during the forum, China also signed national and ministerial agreements on ocean and Antarctic cooperation with Indonesia, Vietnam, Argentina, Chile and other countries. Representatives from small island developing states, including the Solomon Islands, Seychelles, Maldives, also attended the session, which involved discussing cooperation on coastal adaptation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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