{"id":114019,"date":"2023-11-14T16:18:12","date_gmt":"2023-11-14T16:18:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=114019"},"modified":"2023-11-20T17:16:25","modified_gmt":"2023-11-20T17:16:25","slug":"how-climate-change-complicates-chinas-battle-for-blue-skies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/pollution\/how-climate-change-complicates-chinas-battle-for-blue-skies\/","title":{"rendered":"How climate change complicates China\u2019s \u2018battle for blue skies\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Air pollution levels in China fell a \u201cremarkable\u201d 42.3% between 2013 and 2021, <a href=\"https:\/\/aqli.epic.uchicago.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/AQLI_2023_Report-China_v03.5_globalview_spreads.pdf\">according<\/a> to this year\u2019s Air Quality Life Index from the University of Chicago\u2019s Energy Policy Institute (EPIC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The report found that, if sustained, this pollution reduction will extend the average Chinese citizen\u2019s life expectancy by 2.2 years. \u201cThat is outstanding, rapid progress over a single decade,\u201d Christa Hasenkopf, director of air quality programmes at EPIC, told China Dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Autumn 2013 was a turning point for air pollution in China, when the State Council <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.cn\/zwgk\/2013-09\/12\/content_2486773.htm\">released<\/a> its \u201cAir pollution prevention and control action plan\u201d. The following year, then-premier Li Keqiang told the National People\u2019s Congress: \u201cWe must be as resolute in the war on pollution as we are in the war on poverty\u201d. In 2018, the action plan was succeeded by the \u201cThree-year plan on defending the blue sky\u201d, which brought <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/zh\/7\/43989\/\">more <\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/pollution\/10711-china-releases-2-2-action-plan-for-air-pollution\/\">cities<\/a> under air quality management targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The progress on air pollution is well illustrated by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which has been China\u2019s most polluted since 1998. Between 2013 and 2021, control measures achieved a <a href=\"https:\/\/aqli.epic.uchicago.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/China-FactSheet-2023_Final.pdf\">53%<\/a> drop in airborne particulate concentrations. Following such success, the region\u2019s leading group on air pollution control was <a href=\"https:\/\/science.caixin.com\/2023-10-13\/102116626.html\">disbanded<\/a> in October this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/15744320\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Curbing air pollution remains a daunting challenge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While China has made rapid progress over the past decade, the Air Quality Life Index still rates its air quality as 13th-worst in the world. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 microns wide) in China is six times the World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline of five micrograms per cubic metre. Only 0.1% of China\u2019s population lives in areas where this guideline is not exceeded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Particulate pollution is now the fifth-biggest factor limiting life expectancy in China, after cardiovascular disease, tumours, high blood pressure and tobacco. The index notes that even though China\u2019s own particulate pollution standard is relatively weak (35 micrograms per cubic metre), around 30% of the population lives in areas where this is not met either. Life expectancy would increase by six months in those areas if air pollution was brought within national standards. Reducing air pollution to the WHO guideline across the whole country would increase China\u2019s average life expectancy by 2.5 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At a recent conference, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thepaper.cn\/newsDetail_forward_24734410\">revealed<\/a> that air quality in nearly a third of China\u2019s cities fell short of standards at the end of 2022. In general, pollutant emissions are still high and air quality continues to depend heavily on pollution dispersing in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the Air Quality Life Index states: \u201cDespite China\u2019s progress in reducing pollution, more progress is necessary to reach the air pollution concentrations that the WHO considers a safe level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pollution rebounds amid economic recovery<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It is yet to be seen if China built upon its air-quality improvements during 2023, a year in which <a href=\"https:\/\/pmi.caixin.com\/2023-10-01\/102113663.html?originReferrer=caixinsearch_pc\">pressure<\/a> for steady economic growth has grown. The government has refocused on economic development since <a href=\"https:\/\/database.caixin.com\/2022-12-26\/101982210.html\">adjusting<\/a> its Covid response measures at the end of last year, which is often at odds with efforts to combat air pollution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On 20 February, inspection teams headed by the environment minister Huang Runqiu <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywdt\/hjywnews\/202302\/t20230223_1017246.shtml\">descended<\/a> unannounced on seven businesses in the Henan cities of Pingdingshan and Xuchang. These visits were prompted by a protracted haze event that had affected much of southern Henan since the turn of the year. Problems identified by inspectors included: improper operation of pollution-management installations; emissions exceeding standards; failure to implement emergency emissions-abatement measures during heavy pollution conditions; and falsified production and monitoring data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At a regular MEE press <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywdt\/zbft\/202303\/t20230328_1022381.shtml\">briefing<\/a> in March, Liu Bingjiang, director of the ministry\u2019s department of atmospheric environment, outlined the factors that have increased air pollution: the resumption of typical transit levels since Covid measures were relaxed; modernisation projects in the steel, aluminium, cement and glass manufacturing sectors; and the launching of new \u201chigh energy, high pollution\u201d programmes by local governments that are primarily designed to boost economies, without adequate environmental considerations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/chinese-steel-production.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/chinese-steel-production-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/chinese-steel-production-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/chinese-steel-production.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"Chinese worker processes steel parts at the plant of Shandong Iron Steel Group\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Processing steel at a factory in Laiwu, Shandong province. State-mandated expansion of polluting industries like steel and cement, intended to stimulate local economies, has resulted in an uptick in air pollution this year (Image: Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/chinese-steel-production.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"592 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1707\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>According to MEE <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywdt\/xwfb\/202310\/t20231016_1043272.shtml\">data<\/a> for January to September this year, the national average PM2.5 concentration was 28 micrograms per cubic metre, up 3.7% year-on-year. The average PM10 concentration was 51 micrograms per cubic metre, up 6.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China Dialogue spoke to Ruan Qingyuan, who leads the air quality programme for the non-profit Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs (IPE) in Beijing. Ruan believes the main reason for this year\u2019s rebound in air pollution is that control measures have been cancelled out by the recovery of social and economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe pandemic had a huge impact on social and economic activity in China over the past three years, so there has indeed been a rebound in pollution compared with last year in many cities,\u201d said Ruan. \u201cIf we compare with the same period in 2019, however, there has actually been a drop in PM2.5 concentrations.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"110933\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>MEE data confirms this: China\u2019s average PM2.5 concentration between January and September was down 17.6% on the same period in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI think China remains as determined to manage air pollution this year as in the past decade, and overall environmental quality continues moving in the right direction,\u201d Ruan said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ruan explained that much work has been done in recent years to fine-tune pollutant management in many parts of the country. This has included grading different industries to better target emitters with customised regulatory approaches. These grades consider the industry processes, the level of an emitter\u2019s pollution, and the related control measures being taking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New challenges posed by climate change<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The marginal gains made by the end-of-pipe treatment of pollutants are diminishing, however, as the management of air pollution enters a new phase. \u201cThe downward curve in pollutant concentrations of the past few years is less steep than it was, and it\u2019s getting harder to prise the next microgram of reduction,\u201d said Ruan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The effects of climate change are worsening these challenges by adding air pollutants and weakening the necessary conditions for the atmosphere to disperse them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-did-you-know alignleft block--did-you-know\"><p class=\"block--did-you-know__title\">&#8216;Atmospheric stagnation&#8217;?<\/p><div class=\"block--did-you-know__content\"><p>When low wind speeds at ground level cause air pollutants to concentrate in an area. Over time, it can lead to haze.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Northern China was hit by a series of sandstorms this spring, causing pollution levels to <a href=\"https:\/\/m.gmw.cn\/2023-04\/11\/content_1303338431.htm\">rise<\/a> off the scale; the increased frequency of sandstorms is inextricably linked with <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/china-and-mongolia-team-up-to-fight-sandstorms\/\">desertification in Mongolia<\/a>, which is driven by climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding pollution dispersion, climate change will likely mean more frequent atmospheric <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cma.gov.cn\/kppd\/kppdkpdt\/201811\/t20181130_484586.html#:~:text=%E9%9D%99%E7%A8%B3%E5%A4%A9%E6%B0%94%E9%80%9A%E5%B8%B8%E6%8C%87,%E5%9C%A8%E6%B0%B4%E5%B9%B3%E6%96%B9%E5%90%91%E4%BC%A0%E8%BE%93%E6%89%A9%E6%95%A3%E3%80%82\">stagnation<\/a> in China. This phenomenon, characterised by low wind speeds near ground level, hinders the diffusion of pollutants. Over time atmospheric stagnation can give rise to haze conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.1812881116\">study<\/a> from Tsinghua University considered future atmospheric stagnation events in China under a \u201cmedium-emissions\u201d scenario (carbon emissions peak around the year 2040 and the average global temperature rise likely exceeds 2C by the end of the century). In this case, China\u2019s average number of atmospheric stagnation days between 2046 and 2050 would be 57.4 per year. Between 2006 and 2010, it was 54. The biggest increases would take place in China\u2019s north-east, northern Inner Mongolia, the North China Plain and the Sichuan Basin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If pollutant emissions in China remain at current levels, the number of winter days with PM2.5 concentrations above 150 micrograms per cubic metre (heavy pollution) and 250 micrograms (severe pollution) in 74 key cities will increase by 1.8 and 1.1 days respectively. This would primarily be due to atmospheric stagnation events becoming more common.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pollution by particulate matter is not the only concern. Comparing the same 2006 to 2010 and 2046 to 2050 periods, the Tsinghua study predicts climate change will increase heatwave days in the 74 cities from 2.7 to 8.8 per year. This will make urban ozone pollution more frequent: the number of summer days when maximum one-hour ozone concentrations exceed national standards will increase by 3.8 days per year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-pull-quote block--pull-quote\"><div class=\"block--pull-quote__wrapper\"><blockquote class=\"block--pull-quote__quote\"> The overall situation is not optimistic<\/blockquote><cite class=\"block--pull-quote__cite\">Ruan Qingyuan, Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, around 14% of those high-ozone days will occur during heatwaves when high temperatures contribute to the photochemical reactions that give rise to ozone. This \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/zh-hans\/media\/\u65b0\u95fb\u901a\u7a3f\/\u300awmo\u7a7a\u6c14\u8d28\u91cf\u4e0e\u6c14\u5019\u516c\u62a5\u300b\u7a81\u51fa\u5f3a\u8c03\u91ce\u706b\u5f71\u54cd\">climate penalty<\/a>\u201d reflects the amplifying effect of climate change on ozone production at ground level. It will exacerbate ozone pollution events and bring adverse health effects for hundreds of millions of people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the authors of the Tsinghua study state: \u201cManaging air quality in China will become more challenging under a changing climate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ruan Qingyuan said: \u201cEffort has gone into managing ozone continuously in the past few years in China, but the overall situation is not optimistic. Climate change will indeed bring new challenges to the managing of ozone in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThere are several ways in which the climate could make air pollution worse,\u201d added Christa Hasenkopf, \u201cfrom increased ozone levels, to increased wildfires producing PM2.5 pollution, to worse health outcomes when high temperatures and high PM2.5 levels combine. These reasons provide even more incentive toward lowering our carbon emissions as soon as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-next-steps-structural-transformation-and-market-trading\">Next steps: structural transformation and market trading?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>As well as mitigating climate change, cutting carbon emissions also reduces air pollutant emissions. Li Gao, director of the MEE\u2019s climate change response department, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.cn\/xinwen\/2018-10\/31\/content_5336281.htm\">pointed out<\/a> in 2018 that China\u2019s energy consumption is dominated by coal, which is its main source of air pollution. In terms of targets and approaches, he noted synergies between managing air pollution and dealing with climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2020, Xi Jinping announced China\u2019s dual goals of carbon-peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. For Ruan, realising this would enable China to more effectively reduce pollution at source, via the necessary transformation of electricity generation and industrial production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The \u201cSynergetic road map for carbon neutrality and clean air in China\u201d was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cma.gov.cn\/2011xwzx\/2011xqxkj\/2011xkjdt\/202301\/t20230111_5251310.html\">released<\/a> earlier this year, co-sponsored by five organisations including Tsinghua University. It notes the benefits of jointly reducing greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions: if China reaches peak carbon by 2030, it can expect to reduce major air pollutant emissions by more than a third of current levels. The proportion of Chinese cities meeting air quality standards would rise to more than 80%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWith the \u2018dual carbon\u2019 goals leading the way, I believe there will be added momentum in the future for further reducing pollutant emissions at a deep level,\u201d said Ruan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"110596\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">READ MORE<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Hasenkopf suggests establishing a trading market for air pollutant emissions, inspired by <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/china-carbon-market-turns-two-how-has-it-performed\/\">China&#8217;s carbon market<\/a>, which promotes reductions by issuing firms with emission quotas that they can trade. In her view, China is still over-reliant on administrative orders for cutting pollution that impose significant social and economic <a href=\"https:\/\/aqli.epic.uchicago.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/AQLI_2022_Report-Global.pdf\">costs<\/a>. \u201cIt is an open question on whether or not political appetite will be maintained for using those same measures to further ratchet down air pollution,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A regional trading market for air pollutant emissions in India is a testament to the feasibility of this concept. In an effort to curb particulate pollution in the industrial city of Surat, the Gujarat state government <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-asia-india-48744163\">set up<\/a> the world\u2019s first emissions trading market for particulate pollution in 2019. Michael Greenstone, the director of EPIC, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hindustantimes.com\/india-news\/gujarat-to-launch-india-s-first-carbon-trading-market-among-large-polluters-101653415939802.html\">told<\/a> Indian media in 2022 that participating factories had reduced their emissions by 24%, with little cost to industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina maintains the world\u2019s largest national carbon market, which could also position the country well for the adoption of more market-based approaches for further improving air quality,\u201d said Hasenkopf. \u201cAir pollution-based markets could more efficiently and sustainably reduce pollution at a lower cost than previous command-and-control style policies.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Air pollution in China rebounds as economic activity picks up, while climate change is bringing new challenges for air quality management<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1072,"featured_media":114554,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,760],"tags":[14274,513],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110],"class_list":["post-114019","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-pollution","tag-air-pollution","tag-carbon-emissions","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How climate change complicates China\u2019s \u2018battle for blue skies\u2019 | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Air pollution in China rebounds as economic activity picks up, while climate change is bringing new challenges for air quality management\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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