{"id":114797,"date":"2023-11-17T12:28:05","date_gmt":"2023-11-17T12:28:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=114797"},"modified":"2023-11-23T15:16:55","modified_gmt":"2023-11-23T15:16:55","slug":"what-does-chinas-new-methane-plan-mean-for-the-climate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/what-does-chinas-new-methane-plan-mean-for-the-climate\/","title":{"rendered":"What does China\u2019s new methane plan mean for the climate?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Last week, China <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/delayed-national-methane-plan-released\/\">published<\/a> its long-awaited action plan for controlling national methane emissions. After carbon dioxide (CO2), <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/vital-signs\/methane\/\">methane<\/a> is the second-largest contributor to human-caused global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Methane is not targeted by China\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/chinas-emission-intensity-falls-35-in-10-years\/\">2030 carbon-peaking agenda<\/a>, which only deals with CO2. But it does feature in the country\u2019s efforts to achieve net-zero emissions for all greenhouse gases before 2060, <a href=\"https:\/\/live.worldbank.org\/en\/event\/2022\/cop27-fast-targeting-methane-emissions\">according<\/a> to Beijing\u2019s climate envoy, Xie Zhenhua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Experts tell China Dialogue that the new methane <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/xxgk2018\/xxgk\/xxgk03\/202311\/W020231107750707766959.pdf\">plan<\/a> is significant in two regards. One is its sheer importance to curbing global warming, by tackling a potent greenhouse gas. The other is its geopolitical weight, as a symbol of China\u2013US climate cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the plan was published, China and the US have issued a new <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/china-and-us-agree-to-accelerate-substitution-of-fossil-fuels\/\">joint statement<\/a> on addressing climate change, which reiterated their commitment to tackling methane. A meeting between the two countries\u2019 leaders also pledged to enhance climate cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Top-level methane plan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina is the world\u2019s largest emitter of methane and in some sectors, like coal, it is near-impossible to cut global emissions down to size without its cooperation,\u201d says Ryan&nbsp;Driskell Tate, director of the coal programme at the US-based NGO Global Energy Monitor (GEM). Tate tells China Dialogue: \u201cThe action plan is nothing to sneeze at,\u201d even though it does not set methane-reduction targets or timelines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tate\u2019s analysis from last year <a href=\"https:\/\/globalenergymonitor.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/GEM_CCM2022_r4.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">found<\/a> that Shanxi, China\u2019s coal heartland, emits roughly the same amount of coal mine methane (13.1 megatonnes) as that of the rest of the world combined (13.8).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"74512\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">STEP BACK<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE), which led the publication of the action plan, it is Beijing\u2019s top-level document for managing and controlling methane emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China emitted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywgz\/ydqhbh\/wsqtkz\/201907\/P020190701765971866571.pdf\">55.3 million<\/a> tonnes of methane in 2014, with the largest sources being energy (44.8%), agriculture (40.2%) and waste (11.9%), according to the latest available data reported by China. The warming potential of these emissions is equivalent to 1.16 billion tonnes of CO2, according to a 2022 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.igdp.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/%E7%94%B2%E7%83%B7%E5%87%8F%E6%8E%92%EF%BC%9A%E7%A2%B3%E4%B8%AD%E5%92%8C%E6%96%B0%E7%84%A6%E7%82%B9.pdf\">study<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA) put the country\u2019s methane emissions during 2022 at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/data-and-statistics\/data-tools\/methane-tracker\">55.7 million<\/a> tonnes, or 15.6% of the global total; Of China\u2019s total, the energy, agriculture and waste sectors respectively accounted for 45.5%, 33.2% and 18.7% of emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A potent greenhouse gas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Curbing methane emissions is key to addressing climate change because it has far <a href=\"https:\/\/unece.org\/challenge\">greater<\/a> warming potential than CO2: 80 times greater over a 20-year period and about 30 times across 100 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the other hand, methane\u2019s atmospheric <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/vital-signs\/methane\/\">lifetime<\/a> is between seven and 12 years, whereas CO2 can stay in the atmosphere for <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.nasa.gov\/news\/2915\/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide\/\">300-1,000<\/a> years. This means cutting methane emissions has a more immediate impact on slowing global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCutting methane emissions substantially in the near-term gives a double win,\u201d Piers Forster, a professor at the UK\u2019s University of Leeds, tells China Dialogue. Forster says slashing global methane emissions by 30% by 2030 could \u201chalve the rate of warming and save many lives through reducing air pollution\u201d.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forster is the founding director of the&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/climate.leeds.ac.uk\/\">Priestley International Centre for Cli<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/climate.leeds.ac.uk\/\">mate<\/a> at the University of Leeds. He was also a coordinating lead author of the chapter that covered methane in relation to climate change in the Sixth Assessment Report (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i\/\">AR6<\/a>) of the UN\u2019s climate science body, the IPCC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-pull-quote block--pull-quote\"><div class=\"block--pull-quote__wrapper\"><blockquote class=\"block--pull-quote__quote\">China and the west have different approaches to climate targets<\/blockquote><cite class=\"block--pull-quote__cite\">Piers Forster, University of Leeds<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>He says the absence of numerical reduction targets in China\u2019s new methane plan is not a surprise, because the country did not <a href=\"https:\/\/unfccc.int\/news\/world-leaders-kick-start-accelerated-climate-action-at-cop26\">sign<\/a> the Global Methane Pledge at COP26 in 2021. That framework \u2013 led by the United States and European Union and signed by around 100 countries so far \u2013 carries the target of collectively reducing methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina and the west have different approaches to climate targets,\u201d Forster says. The UK, EU and North America tend to set themselves \u201cstretching\u201d targets they are \u201cunlikely to meet\u201d, whereas China tends to only commit to objectives it will \u201clikely over-deliver on\u201d, he notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But \u201cin the end it\u2019s the delivery of change that matters,\u201d Forster adds. \u201cWe\u2019ll only know how well China is doing as we track its progress.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implementation is key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Although China\u2019s plan lacks reduction targets, it does carry several specific objectives, especially on methane utilisation for the energy, agriculture and waste-treatment sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For example, the plan requires 6 billion cubic metres of coal mine gas, which contains methane, to be collected annually by 2025. It also stipulates that the \u201ccomprehensive utilisation rate\u201d of livestock manure, another source of methane, should reach 80% by 2025 and exceed 85% by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China Dialogue spoke to Hu Min, the principal of the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP), a Chinese thinktank. Hu regards the plan as a \u201cvery comprehensive\u201d policy framework. \u201cEven before the release of the plan, many policies already had methane-reduction effects. With the overall framework in place, the impact of those methane-reduction measures would be boosted greatly,\u201d Hu says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to projections by Hu\u2019s organisation, the measures in the plan can collectively help China cut its methane emissions by 246 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2035, compared to 2022 levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A Xinhua report from last year listed several existing Chinese policies to tackle methane. They included a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mee.gov.cn\/ywgz\/fgbz\/bz\/bzwb\/dqhjbh\/dqgdwrywrwpfbz\/200804\/W020111121355968126241.pdf\">trial policy<\/a> for emission standards of coal mine methane, issued in 2008; a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.cn\/zhengce\/content\/2017-03\/30\/content_5182124.htm\">scheme<\/a> to mandate the recycling of domestic waste, issued in 2017; and the <a href=\"http:\/\/news.cnpc.com.cn\/system\/2021\/05\/19\/030033272.shtml\">establishment<\/a> of the China Oil and Gas Methane Alliance of major Chinese energy firms in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221004_Carbon-Mapper-methane-leaks.png\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221004_Carbon-Mapper-methane-leaks-768x579.png 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221004_Carbon-Mapper-methane-leaks-1024x771.png 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221004_Carbon-Mapper-methane-leaks.png 1824w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 1824px\" alt=\"\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Infrared imaging of methane emissions at the Elk Hills oil and gas field in southern California (Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/data.carbonmapper.org\/map\">Carbon Mapper<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/4.0\/\">CC BY-SA 4.0<\/a>)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2022\/10\/20221004_Carbon-Mapper-methane-leaks.png\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"4 MB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1374\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"1824\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>GEM\u2019s coal director Tate cautions that the success of China\u2019s new methane plan \u201chinges on implementation\u201d. The 2008 coal mine methane policy required existing coal operations to flare or use all drained methane gas (if safe to do so) by 2010, but a 2019 study&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-018-07891-7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">suggested<\/a> methane&nbsp;emissions had still risen in&nbsp;China and coal was the primary source.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThis new action plan seems to recognise how weak&nbsp;those regulations may have&nbsp;been in practice,\u201d Tate adds. \u201cBut we&#8217;ll have to wait and see how these policies will function on the ground.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forster of the University of Leeds also points out the difficulties in tackling methane emissions in agriculture, especially from rice paddies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMost Western countries don\u2019t include substantial agricultural emission reductions in their plans. So, progress here [by China] would be a bonus,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some techniques that use less water, produce more rice and emit less methane have been gaining traction in China, China Dialogue&nbsp;has <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/food\/chinas-rice-farming-trials-cut-methane-emissions-and-increase-yields\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reported<\/a>&nbsp;previously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Data challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Tate says that a \u201cbright spot\u201d in the plan is its efforts to strengthen China\u2019s reporting systems and data management for methane emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The plan stipulates that China should \u201ceffectively increase\u201d its ability to monitor, report and verify methane emissions from now until 2025 and \u201csignificantly increase\u201d such ability between 2026 and 2030. It also seeks to establish frameworks for methane-related policies, technologies and standards in this decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe have such a low&nbsp;bar for methane emissions reporting around the world,\u201d Tate says. \u201cAs the old saying goes: \u2018You can\u2019t manage what you can\u2019t measure.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina could really change the game,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other experts believe that a weak data foundation for methane could be part of the reason China did not set reduction targets in this plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe absence of specific goals in the plan shows that China\u2019s progress in managing methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases is still in early stages,\u201d notes Li Shuo, who directs the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. He says the plan is an \u201cimportant step forward\u201d but he is \u201cslightly disappointed\u201d by the absence of reduction goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"69653\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>As early as November 2022, China\u2019s climate envoy Xie Zhenhua implied that data issues had \u2013 to some degree \u2013 hampered the country\u2019s goal-setting progress for methane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the sidelines of COP27, Xie <a href=\"https:\/\/live.worldbank.org\/en\/event\/2022\/cop27-fast-targeting-methane-emissions\">said<\/a> China had been able to set preliminary goals only for its energy, agriculture and waste sectors, because its statistical foundation was \u201cweak\u201d and the baseline data was \u201cunclear\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Xie set out then what became the two priorities of the national methane plan: that China should establish a monitoring, reporting and verification system for methane and prioritise ways to utilise methane emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beijing\u2019s recent drive to enhance energy security might have affected the plan, too. \u201cThe policymakers\u2019 recent priority has been to boost domestic coal, oil and gas output and reduce fuel costs, so not introducing more binding measures is likely related to this,\u201d Lauri Myllyvirta tells China Dialogue. Myllyvirta is the lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-china-us-climate-cooperation\">China\u2013US climate cooperation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Some experts say that the plan\u2019s geopolitical weight is equally \u2013 if not more \u2013 important than its environmental values, due to its close connection with China\u2013US climate cooperation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe timing of the plan\u2019s release, just ahead of COP28, is a strategic move signalling China\u2019s intention to contribute to global methane emission control efforts,\u201d Dorothy Mei tells China Dialogue. Mei is the project manager for GEM\u2019s Global Coal Mine Tracker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beijing first <a href=\"https:\/\/mp.weixin.qq.com\/s\/dfATwc9LZHf2cS6Bj0Om4g\">pledged<\/a> to develop a \u201ccomprehensive and ambitious national action plan on methane\u201d at COP26 in 2021, as part of a joint climate declaration with Washington. According to the declaration, the plan was meant to be released before COP27, but climate talks between the two nations were suspended last year amid <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/chinas-climate-diplomacy-in-a-turbulent-world\/\">geopolitical tensions<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead, the plan\u2019s release coincided with the last day of a four-day meeting in California between the climate envoys of China and the US. The talks led to the release of the China\u2013US \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/china-and-us-agree-to-accelerate-substitution-of-fossil-fuels\/\">Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis<\/a>\u201d, on 15 November Beijing time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Joe-biden-Xi-jinping-APEC-talk_Alamy_2T7GT4P.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Joe-biden-Xi-jinping-APEC-talk_Alamy_2T7GT4P-768x558.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Joe-biden-Xi-jinping-APEC-talk_Alamy_2T7GT4P-1024x744.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Joe-biden-Xi-jinping-APEC-talk_Alamy_2T7GT4P.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"Joe Biden and Xi Jinping walk past trees, talking\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden talk on the sidelines of the APEC conference in San Francisco on 15 November. In a statement released the day before, the two countries agreed to <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/digest\/china-and-us-agree-to-accelerate-substitution-of-fossil-fuels\/\">\u2019accelerate substitution\u2018 of fossil fuels<\/a>. (Doug Mills \/ The New York Times via Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/Joe-biden-Xi-jinping-APEC-talk_Alamy_2T7GT4P.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"544 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1861\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In the statement, the two parties pledged to implement their respective methane action plans and to develop methane reduction actions or targets to be included in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for 2035. Countries are expected to submit their 2035 NDCs in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They also announced they would jointly host a \u201cMethane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Summit\u201d at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Li, of the Asia Society Policy Institute, says that the new China\u2013US climate statement \u201csets broad boundaries for the anticipated debates at COP28\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He adds that the leaders\u2019 summit at the beginning of COP28 (1-2 December), the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chinadaily.com.cn\/a\/202311\/13\/WS65521536a31090682a5edf01.html\">recently scheduled<\/a> EU\u2013China summit (7-8 December), and the outcomes of COP28 are \u201csubsequent opportunities to assess China\u2019s political will on climate change as well as the US-China climate dynamic\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Plan for reducing methane emissions was followed by a new China\u2013US announcement and pledges on closer cooperation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3988,"featured_media":114817,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[18142,580,13817],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110,50040700],"class_list":["post-114797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-methane","tag-policy","tag-us-china","country-china","country-united-states-of-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>What does China\u2019s new methane plan mean for the climate? 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