{"id":115002,"date":"2023-11-21T14:31:48","date_gmt":"2023-11-21T14:31:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=115002"},"modified":"2024-05-16T10:58:33","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T09:58:33","slug":"global-warming-on-course-for-2-9c-un-report-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/global-warming-on-course-for-2-9c-un-report-warns\/","title":{"rendered":"Global warming on course for 2.9C, UN report warns"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Countries must make far greater efforts to implement their climate strategies this decade to stand a chance of keeping global temperature rise within 1.5C of the pre-industrial average. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued delays will only increase the world\u2019s reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR), according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its latest annual assessment of progress on global climate action, the Emissions Gap Report 2023<\/a>, UNEP pointed to progress since the Paris Agreement. When it was adopted in 2015, greenhouse gas emissions were projected to rise 16% by 2030. Today, that increase is projected to be 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But from now emissions must fall<\/em> 28% by 2030 to keep temperature rise to 2C, or 42% to stay within 1.5C, and countries are failing to match this need with action, UNEP found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Current climate policies will result in a rise of 3C this century. The increase will be limited to 2.9C if countries fully implement their national climate plans (known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This could be kept to 2.5C if plans by developing countries, which are currently conditional on obtaining financial support, are carried out \u2013 since that would result in a 9% fall in emissions.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In UNEP\u2019s most optimistic scenario, where all conditional NDCs and net zero pledges are met, limiting temperature rise to 2C could be achieved, UNEP says. This scenario is considered to give at best a 14% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, 97 countries have pledged to meet net zero emissions, up from 88 last year. Pledges cover 81% of the world\u2019s greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the authors do not consider these pledges to be credible, pointing out that none of the G20 countries are reducing emissions at a pace consistent with their net-zero targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

National net zero plans have several flaws, according to Anne Olhoff, chief scientific editor of the report. Many are not legally binding, or fail to have clear implementation plans, and there is a lack of targets between now and the dates when governments claim to be aiming for net zero, she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emissions are still going up in countries that have put forward zero emission pledges<\/blockquote>Anne Olhoff, chief scientific\u00a0editor of the report<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut most importantly, emissions are still going up in countries that have put forward zero emission pledges. There are many ways to net zero, but at some point you need to peak and reduce. And the longer you wait until you peak, the more difficult it\u2019s likely to be to actually get to net zero,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under the Paris Agreement, ambition in the NDCs is designed to be ramped up over time. At COP28<\/a>, which begins in Dubai at the end of November, countries will debate how to build new ambition under the first Global Stocktake<\/a>. This will inform the next round of NDCs that countries should submit in 2025, which will have targets for 2035.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Countries should focus on implementing existing policies this decade, rather than pledging higher targets for 2030, says Olhoff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhether or not the ambition of the 2030 targets is raised or not is less important than achieving those targets. If countries find that they can also strengthen ambition for 2030, that\u2019s an added benefit,\u201d she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The more action taken this decade, the more ambitious countries can be in their new targets for 2035, and the easier it will be to achieve those targets, she points out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n