A climate deal between China and the US, the world\u2019s two largest emitters of global-heating greenhouse gases, is a bright spot ahead of tough negotiations at the COP28 climate talks starting in Dubai on 30 November. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
US and China climate watchers say the agreement<\/a>, which follows months of discussions and a diplomatic push to ease tensions, can inject momentum into the negotiations but still leaves much hard work for countries to agree on a successful COP28 outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Under the deal, the two nations reaffirmed a commitment to work together to address the climate crisis, and to scale up renewable energy this decade to displace fossil fuels.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n They committed to policy dialogue and technical exchanges on a range of issues, agreed to cooperate on advancing five large carbon capture and storage projects each, and pledged to include methane reduction targets in the 2035 climate plans they are due to release in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The accord was struck by the nations\u2019 climate envoys John Kerry and Xie Zhenhua at a meeting in the Sunnylands resort of California, a symbolic site of US\u2013China cooperation. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping and former US President Barack Obama met here for talks that paved the way to a joint pledge to reduce emissions and led to the adoption of the Paris climate agreement in 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Alan Yu, senior vice president at the Center for American Progress and a former senior advisor to envoy Kerry on the Indo-Pacific region, said the deal puts \u201csome wind in the sails for global climate action\u201d in Dubai.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It was publicly released a day before a highly anticipated meeting between President Xi and his US counterpart Joe Biden on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leader\u2019s summit in California last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nearly a year to the day since Biden and Xi met in Bali, Indonesia, the meeting resumed efforts to prevent a further deterioration of relations despite fundamental disagreements on issues of trade and geopolitics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Those efforts had come to a screeching halt after former US speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in 2022 and Washington accused Beijing of flying a spy balloon over the US in February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The joint climate statement demonstrates that both sides see cutting emissions as \u201ccritical enough that climate action should rise above the other challenges in the relationship,\u201d said Yu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Biden and Xi both \u201cwelcomed\u201d the deal, according to a readout<\/a> from the White House, and \u201cunderscored the importance of working together to accelerate efforts to tackle the climate crisis in this critical decade\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThis is not as big as the agreement before Paris \u2026 but I think it\u2019s a significant statement,\u201d said Alden Meyer, a veteran climate watcher and senior associate at think-tank E3G. \u201cIt really does signal that both countries want a robust\u201d political decision at COP28, which is due to set expectations for climate action in the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Specifically, the agreement will help stabilise politics at the talks, Li Shuo, director of China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, told China Dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But neither side made ground-breaking domestic pledges and a heavy lift is still needed for countries to agree on how to step up action at COP28. Notably, the statement makes no mention of phasing out unabated coal or overall fossil fuel use \u2013 one of the most contentious discussions points in Dubai. <\/p>\n\n\n\n On the political front, the deal will make it \u201charder for others to cite challenging geopolitics as a reason that delays progress\u201d, said Bernice Lee, a distinguished fellow for sustainability at think-tank Chatham House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Byford Tsang, a senior policy advisor at E3G, added that the common ground found between Beijing and Washington in California could even \u201ctake a bit of heat out of the COP28 discussions\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The US and China confirmed they would set economy-wide emission-reduction targets in their 2035 climate plans and include all greenhouse gases, including, importantly, methane \u2013 setting an expectation which could form the basis for agreement in Dubai. Despite being the world\u2019s largest methane emitter<\/a>, China\u2019s current plan only covers carbon dioxide emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In addition, the pair backed efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 \u2013 a key ask<\/a> from the COP28 presidency. On achieving this goal, Zou Ji, CEO of Energy Foundation China, told China Dialogue: \u201cChina\u2019s production capacity for renewable power equipment can help provide cost-effective solutions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n China towers over the rest of the world when it comes to the deployment of renewable energy. In 2023 alone, the country is expected<\/a> to add twice the total solar capacity of the US. Analysis shows this record growth in the installation of clean energy sources could see China\u2019s emissions peak in 2023<\/a> \u2013 seven years ahead of its 2030 target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Both sides agreed \u201cto sufficiently accelerate renewable energy deployment in their respective economies\u201d this decade \u201cso as to accelerate the substitution for coal, oil and gas generation\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As a result, they anticipate \u201cpost-peaking\u201d absolute emission reductions in the power sector in the 2020s. This could signal confidence that Beijing will achieve its 2030 peaking target early and sees emissions from coal power falling in the next few years \u2013 a trajectory which is consequential for the world\u2019s climate future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n While the term \u201csubstitution\u201d falls short of some countries\u2019 push for an agreed \u201cphase out\u201d of fossil fuels at COP28, Li said the wording creates \u201can opening\u201d for negotiations and emphasises that clean energy must be phased in before coal, oil and gas can decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Leading scientists and the International Energy Agency have warned that investment in new coal, oil, and gas production is incompatible<\/a> with limiting global warming to 1.5C. At COP28, countries should agree to an \u201corderly decline of fossil fuel use, including that no new unabated coal plants are to be built,\u201d IEA executive director Fatih Birol said recently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But Beijing is reluctant to commit to cut fossil fuel use as it tries to bolster energy security and battle an economic slowdown. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In September, China\u2019s climate envoy Xie said phasing out unabated fossil fuels was \u201cunrealistic<\/a>\u201d while technologies like energy storage remain immature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n China\u2019s huge solar and wind buildout hasn\u2019t yet translated into a reduction in coal capacity. In fact, since President Xi pledged<\/a> in April 2021 to \u201cstrictly control coal-fired power generation projects\u201d, China\u2019s coal pipeline has skyrocketed<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe litmus test of whether China is serious about raising its ambition on climate action is to see if it would support strong political commitments at COP28\u2026 on phasing down fossil fuel, including coal,\u201d said Tsang.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The US, the world\u2019s largest producer of oil and gas, has previously said<\/a> it supports a phase out of unabated fossil fuels. At the same time, it accounts for more than a third<\/a> of planned global oil and gas expansion to 2050 \u2013 the largest share of any country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Outside UN climate negotiations, the US and China have identified key areas for cooperation. Methane emission reductions is one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Earlier this month, two years after Beijing and Washington had jointly agreed<\/a> to tackle methane emissions, China released its methane control plan<\/a>. But it did so without setting numerical targets, citing \u201cweak\u201d baseline data. For Li, the US\u2019s experience on the issue could help China strengthen its monitoring capacity and set targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Energy efficiency, developing circular economies, and efforts to halt deforestation have also been identified as areas of collaboration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Such teamwork will not also be straightforward, however. \u201cWherever you have an intellectual property issue \u2026 it gets much more fraught,\u201d said Ilaria Mazzocco, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noting the competitive tensions over the development of clean energy technologies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Ultimately, US\u2013China relations will need stability to gradually improve bilateral relations and rebuild trust, Liu Yuanling, an assistant professor at the Institute of America Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China Dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But elections in Taiwan and the US next year risk injecting uncertainty into relations and could thwart fragile gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Liu said the US needed to demonstrate \u201cstable\u201d commitment to climate cooperation as \u201cmany people [in China] are worrying about the climate attitude of the next US president\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Former President Donald Trump, who is hawkish on China and temporarily withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, is favourite to stand as the Republican nominee, according to polls<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Regardless of the next White House resident, climate cooperation at the sub-national level offers a reliable way forward, argues Fan Dai, director of the California-China Climate Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n California has a strong track record of collaborating with Chinese provinces, cities, and research institutions on climate action and these ties recently got stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a highly successful climate-themed trip to China last month, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed five agreements<\/a> to strengthen collaboration with Chinese actors, including learning from Jiangsu province about how it rapidly scaled up<\/a> its offshore wind capacity. <\/p>\n\n\n\nA symbolic location<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A significant statement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
What was agreed?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Implications for COP28 fossil fuel \u2018phase out\u2019 debate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Key areas for cooperation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Sub-national teamwork<\/h2>\n\n\n\n