{"id":116374,"date":"2023-12-13T11:28:42","date_gmt":"2023-12-13T11:28:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogue.net\/?p=116374"},"modified":"2024-01-03T17:18:33","modified_gmt":"2024-01-03T17:18:33","slug":"why-china-hasnt-signed-pledge-triple-renewables","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/why-china-hasnt-signed-pledge-triple-renewables\/","title":{"rendered":"Why China didn\u2019t sign global pledge to triple renewables"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">On day three of the COP28 UN climate negotiations in Dubai, applause greeted the news that Mexico had signed up to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cop28.com\/en\/global-renewables-and-energy-efficiency-pledge\">global commitment<\/a> to triple renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030. It brought the number of countries making the commitment up to 118. That has since swelled to 123.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China Dialogue asked experts why China, despite being a world leader in renewables, has not signed.  The general picture they gave is that the tripling is achievable, but the doubling is a sticking point. Energy efficiency is the size of an economy divided by its energy use. Although China has been making strides in cutting the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP, reducing this \u201cenergy intensity\u201d a further 4% every year to 2030 would be extremely challenging. This is because China\u2019s economy is still at a stage where it relies on energy-intense sectors such as heavy industry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-renewables-target-achievable\">The renewables target: Achievable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The tripling goal comes from a report published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in the summer. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irena.org\/Publications\/2023\/Jun\/World-Energy-Transitions-Outlook-2023\">World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023<\/a> found that renewable power capacity must triple by 2030 if global heating is to be limited to 1.5C. That\u2019s calculated on a baseline of the end of 2022, when the capacity was 3,400 gigawatts (GW). In other words, 11,000 GW of capacity will be needed by the end of the decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/16096698\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Three months after the report was published, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mea.gov.in\/Images\/CPV\/G20-New-Delhi-Leaders-Declaration.pdf\">G20 New Delhi Leaders\u2019 Declaration<\/a> adopted the target, along with others including a faster phasedown of unabated coal power. China, as a G20 nation, was part of that consensus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moreover, just last month, China and the US published the <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/wind-in-the-sails-us-china-climate-agreement-can-boost-global-action\/\">Sunnylands Statement<\/a> on enhancing climate action. The agreement stated that: \u201cBoth countries support the G20 Leaders Declaration to pursue efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and intend to sufficiently accelerate renewable energy deployment in their respective economies through 2030 from 2020 levels.\u201d&nbsp;(The wording suggests use of a 2020 base line domestically, rather than 2022.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s worth noting that the target does not apply to all countries equally. That is, not all are expected to triple renewables capacity by 2030, as some are developing faster than others. The four biggest renewables generators in 2022 were China, the US, Brazil and India \u2013 with China at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/267233\/renewable-energy-capacity-worldwide-by-country\/\">three times<\/a> the capacity of the US in second place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite this, a tripling of renewables capacity would not present a problem for China, on either the 2020 or 2022 baseline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using the 2020 baseline of <a href=\"https:\/\/pjzx.cec.org.cn\/detail\/index.html?3-293319\">934 GW<\/a> would mean China needs about 2,800 GW of renewables capacity by 2030. All the experts consulted by China Dialogue were confident this can be achieved. Dr Yang Fuqiang, a senior advisor to Peking University\u2019s Climate Change and Energy Transition Program, predicts the figure will stand at 2,800 to 3,000 GW.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At a COP28 side event, Wang Yi, deputy chair of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change, said: \u201cThe current tripling target is a global target. If China was to do that, and we suggest only considering non-hydropower renewables, we calculate a 2022 baseline of 800 gigawatts, which would mean tripling to 2,400 gigawatts by 2030. That would take work, but it\u2019s achievable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The energy efficiency target: A sticking point<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>One possible reason that China and India, biggest and fourth-biggest renewables generators respectively, did not sign the pledge is the bundling of the headline target of tripling renewables with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irena.org\/News\/pressreleases\/2023\/Dec\/IRENA-Call-to-Triple-Renewables-by-2030-Becomes-a-Key-Commitment-at-COP28\">doubling energy efficiency<\/a>. Experts said the countries were keen not to over pledge and under deliver, aware that whatever targets they commit to, even if not binding on individual countries to achieve, may invite international pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/commentaries\/a-global-target-to-double-efficiency-progress-is-essential-to-keep-net-zero-on-the-table\">calculations<\/a> by the International Energy Agency (IEA), doubling energy efficiency globally would require an annual 4% fall in energy intensity, or an overall fall of 32% on 2022 levels by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-accordion block--accordion\"><span class=\"block--accordion__title\">What does energy intensity mean?<\/span><div class=\"block--accordion__content\"><div class=\"block--accordion__content__inner\">\n<p>Energy intensity is the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP. It indicates the strength of the link between a country\u2019s economic development and energy consumption. That is, how much energy is needed to produce a certain amount of value. The higher it is, the more reliant the country will be on energy for growth.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, among the G20 members, only China, Japan, France, the UK and Indonesia have managed 4% falls in energy intensity over any period of five consecutive years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The energy efficiency target is a much tougher ask, says Professor Teng Fei, of Tsinghua University\u2019s Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIRENA asking China to achieve that goal is like \u201cwhipping a willing ox\u201d, as countries with higher baselines will end up with much tougher goals,\u201d he told China Dialogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhip a willing ox\u201d is an old Chinese saying meaning ask for more from one who has already fulfilled their obligations, or ask someone to go beyond the call of duty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He went on: \u201cChina has already achieved 4% falls in energy intensity. In the last decade, we\u2019ve seen a cumulative fall of 26%. But maintaining that rate of change is no easy task.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China has seen a shift in its thinking on achieving peak carbon, says Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at think-tank the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). Previously, it encouraged \u201cdual controls\u201d \u2013 on energy intensity and total energy consumption. Now, it promotes energy saving and emissions reductions, he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"110933\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, due to the pandemic, the less energy-intensive services and consumer sectors were hit hard. Meanwhile, energy consumption grew <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/fggz\/hjyzy\/jnhnx\/202303\/t20230302_1350587_ext.html\">2.9%<\/a> on the previous year, with coal consumption going up by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ndrc.gov.cn\/fggz\/hjyzy\/jnhnx\/202303\/t20230302_1350587_ext.html\">4.3%<\/a>. That meant energy intensity for 2022 was virtually unchanged on 2021, dropping by only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.cn\/xinwen\/2023-02\/28\/content_5743710.htm\">0.1%<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina is&nbsp; promoting very large-scale deployment of clean energy while doing little to curb energy demand growth. This means that it should be quite plausible for China to agree to the global tripling goal but the energy efficiency goal is harder to sign up to,\u201d said Myllyvirta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Professor Sun Yongping, deputy head of the Institute of State Government at Huazhong University of Science and Technology, says that the main route to reducing the energy intensity of China\u2019s economy is improving the electrification rate (meaning the share of electricity in energy demand, relative to the share of direct fossil fuel burning). This, he says, requires an industrial transition, as coal power and other energy-intensive industries could still cause overall energy intensity to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cLast year, the National Development and Reform Commission called for an electrification rate of 30%, which is already very good, higher than some developed nations,\u201d he said. \u201cDeveloped parts of the east coast, like Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai, are already at almost 40%, while central and western China are at 20%. That reflects structural issues in the economy. A faster restructuring would bring the energy efficiency target within reach.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chinese business: Big opportunities, smaller challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If the renewables target is to be achieved, business will need to play its part. At COP28, China Dialogue interviewed the world\u2019s largest photovoltaic (PV) solar firm, LONGi. Founded in 2000, it now has manufacturing or sales operations in over 150 countries and has sold more solar modules than any other firm for the last three years running.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Huo Yan, LONGi\u2019s global marketing head, said the tripling target could act as a spur to countries that had been slower to deploy renewables. For a country like China, already rapidly rolling out clean energy, it was a conservative goal, he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIRENA reviewed international trends in renewable energy and found rapid growth, particularly in solar,\u201d he said. \u201cBut over the last five years, we\u2019ve seen some international organisations, including IRENA, make the same mistake when predicting future capacity: they underestimate.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/16096316\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>He told China Dialogue that the global solar market is booming. According to LONGi\u2019s own figures, 38 countries installed 1 GW or more of new PV solar capacity this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And, according to data from LONGi and Jinko Solar (China\u2019s second biggest solar firm), they alone have produced a total of 490 GW of solar silicon wafers in their histories, equivalent to almost half of overall installed capacity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"102021\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, Chinese manufactures hold 97% of the market for silicon wafers, and 80% of all solar panels are supplied by China. Demand for solar modules is greatest in China, the EU and the US. Recently, the EU and US have moved to repatriate supply chains and put anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures in place on Chinese solar power products. These include the EU\u2019s Net Zero Industry Act, Critical Raw Materials Act, and a new Batteries Regulation; and the <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/inflation-reduction-act-turning-point-us-climate-policy\/\">Inflation Reduction Act<\/a> in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe EU and US don\u2019t have the manufacturing capacity or the competitiveness. These measures are a huge barrier to solar deployment, and possibly the IRENA renewables capacity target,\u201d said Pan Jiahua, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and deputy chair of the National Expert Committee on Climate Change. \u201cTo remove those barriers, we need dialogues. At the same time, Chinese companies need to step up and commit and contribute to global targets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChanges in market demand, regional policy barriers, being punished for breaking WTO rules \u2013 companies in many sectors face these kinds of challenges,\u201d Huo Yan told China Dialogue. \u201cIf companies do well on environmental, social and corporate governance, and communicate to dispel misunderstandings and prejudice, then we will all be working in the same direction, with the same targets, to tackle climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">China\u2019s contribution: Teaching people to fish<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s rapid roll out of renewables has provided impetus to the global energy transition. Cecilia Springer, a senior fellow at Boston University\u2019s Global Development Policy Center, thinks China has an important role to play as the world tries to achieve IRENA\u2019s targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the recent <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/our-take-on-the-third-belt-and-road-forum\/\">Third Belt and Road Forum<\/a>, the country announced a number of new decisions, including the establishment of the Green Investment and Finance Partnership, \u201cinnovative blended finance\u201d, and better support for renewables projects in their earliest stages, Springer said. She also noted a change in the language used, indicating a shift towards supporting smaller-scale and greener projects. \u201cThis all shows China will work hard to hit its existing targets, and give strong support to green and low-carbon development.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cOne big remaining question is if this support will emerge on the timeline needed to reach the 2030 RE capacity goal,\u201d Springer added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"112914\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Pan Jiahua thinks China could act as a role model for the world by hitting that goal. He pointed out that China is a developing nation, with per-head GDP below the global average, and 600 million people having only around 1,000 yuan (US$140) in disposable income per month. If China can hit the target, so can other developing nations \u2013 not to mention developed ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChina has already got the cost of solar power down to under 0.10 yuan per kilowatt hour, something which will be of great help to both the EU and the US, not to mention the rest of the world, allowing them to triple renewables capacity at minimum cost,\u201d said Pan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although China\u2019s renewables tech has reduced the cost of installing generation capacity, Springer thinks the country could do more to transfer its experience to developing nations, helping them to build out their own manufacturing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cChinese solar manufacturers in other countries are mainly bringing down costs for end-users (like the US) rather than the developing countries where the manufacturing is occurring,\u201d said Springer. \u201cI think China could do much more to safeguard local benefits, train local workforces, and help build out solar installations in those countries,\u201d she added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The renewables target is achievable but other elements would be much more difficult, say Chinese experts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3622,"featured_media":116589,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[569,585],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000110],"class_list":["post-116374","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-negotiations","tag-renewables","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Why China didn\u2019t sign global pledge to triple renewables<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The renewables target is achievable but other elements would be much 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Before joining China Dialogue she worked for Compassion in World Farming International as Marketing and Communications Manager. 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