{"id":20001004,"date":"2010-12-29T15:05:24","date_gmt":"2010-12-29T15:05:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/184.172.177.95\/~chinad\/?p=1004"},"modified":"2010-12-29T15:05:24","modified_gmt":"2010-12-29T15:05:24","slug":"on-the-mekong-a-better-way-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/on-the-mekong-a-better-way-2\/","title":{"rendered":"On the Mekong, a better way (2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

China is shooting itself in the foot as far as river management is concerned \u2013 attracting unnecessary suspicion through lack of openness, says Qin Hui.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\"\"If it became clear that China\u00a0has indeed been impounding water during the dry season,\u00a0then a wave of criticism would likely follow. But there might also be gratitude: while people living downstream of a reservoir normally hope it will prevent flooding and relieve droughts, in certain circumstances they actually desire the opposite.<\/p>\n

Evaluating the impact of a reservoir is complicated. Not only are there various ways of operating a dam, but one particular scheme can also have different\u00a0consequences\u00a0for different stretches of the river. China and downstream nations may have competing interests, but there\u00a0are\u00a0also conflicts of interest between the downstream nations themselves.<\/p>\n

For example, the 2008 floods on the Vientiane plains\u00a0in Laos and the drought on the northern Mekong have both resulted in\u00a0complaints<\/a>\u00a0that China\u2019s reservoirs are making the changes in river level more extreme \u2013 flood peaks are higher and dry periods drier.<\/p>\n

But in Cambodia I heard a different story. There, the\u00a0Tonl\u00e9 Sap L<\/a>ake<\/a>\u00a0relies on seasonal changes in the level of the Mekong. In flood season, water flows back up a tributary to fill the lake which, in turn, rises to cover a much greater area. The floodscarry\u00a0nutrient-rich sediment,\u00a0providing nourishmentfor the unique strain of high-stalked rice that grows there, and the higher waters allow fish populations to migrate upstream and breed (this is one of the world\u2019s largest freshwater fisheries). In the dry season, the water flows back out into the Mekong, the lake shrinks and the locals get out of their boats to collect the fish stranded in traps and harvest the now mature rice And so the lake is known as the land of rice and fish.<\/p>\n

This semi-aquatic traditional way of life and the unique seasonal ecosystem both rely on the rise and fall of the Mekong. Unlike those living on the banks of the river in Laos, the people here worry that the flood waters won\u2019t come or that the river will remain in full flow during the dry season. Here, they complain that the changes in the level of the Mekong have been too small \u2013 the lake doesn\u2019t rise enough, meaning the water doesn\u2019t reach all of the rice, while in the dry season water levels are too high and much of the rice harvest is lost.<\/p>\n

Add in the impact on fish migration, and the land of rice and fish isn\u2019t as abundant as it used to be. Locals are earning less and both the way of life and the ecosystem are under threat. Some point the finger at China\u2019s reservoirs, blaming the impoundment of flood waters and the release of water during the dry season.<\/p>\n

I explained to the people I met that I had no idea what China\u2019s reservoirs were actually doing and\u00a0therefore\u00a0didn\u2019t know if they could be blamed or not. But I could be sure that these complaints contradicted the ones I hadheard in Laos: either of the charges could be true, but not both at once.<\/p>\n

If China is responsible for the problems in Thailand and Laos, then we need to look at changes in rainfall patterns and the flow of tributaries such as the\u00a0Kong River<\/a>\u00a0and Tonl\u00e9\u00a0Sap itself to explain the woes at the lake:\u00a0theycannot\u00a0have\u00a0anything to do with China. It could also be possible that both sets of problems are driven by local changes and that China\u2019s reservoirs are innocent on both counts. But a firm conclusion requires an examination of the region\u2019s hydrology and data on the operation of China\u2019s reservoirs.<\/p>\n

Only abuse<\/strong><\/p>\n

This brings us to a deeper issue.\u00a0If it were true that China\u2019s reservoirs weremaking changes in water level more or less extreme, in either case\u00a0there would be advantages and disadvantages. And,\u00a0by rights, China\u00a0should \u2013 in amongst the complaints \u2013 be hearing words of gratitude. If Laos and Thailand are complaining about more extreme changes, Cambodia should be thanking China. And vice versa. But there are only complaints.\u00a0Is this simply anti-China bias at work?<\/p>\n

In fact, I believe the problem stems from\u00a0claims in certain Chinese quarters that the\u00a0country has \u201cno impact\u201d\u00a0downstream. This means that anyone benefitting from upstream schemes will see no need to thank China, while those suffering simply\u00a0reject\u00a0its claims, since it has provided\u00a0no\u00a0proof. Is there evidence for their complaints? No\u00a0\u2013\u00a0because China has\u00a0not published data on what is actually happening at the reservoirs, making it impossible to objectively evaluate that \u201cimpact\u201d. And if \u201cevaporation\u201d is then brought up, they may simply conclude they are being\u00a0lied to.<\/p>\n

For example, everyone knows that natural drought has played a role in the drying up of the Mekong. But how did\u00a0China\u2019s\u00a0reservoirs respond? The authorities refuse to say. Maybe\u00a0the country deserves\u00a0thanks for releasing water (even if the drought was so severe that this action didn\u2019t help). And ifit was\u00a0impounding water, well then\u00a0it\u00a0can hardly refute the complaints. But refusing to say one way or the other means that China is either losing out on the thanks it deserves from Cambodia, or failing to provide the evidence necessary to\u00a0counter\u00a0complaints from Thailand and Laos.<\/p>\n

The evasiveness of the authorities over reservoir operation\u00a0means that, if China is doing something good, nobody knows about it. But\u00a0it cannot hide any harm that it does\u00a0and will be suspected of causing harm it has nothing to do with. What\u00a0sort of strategy is that?<\/p>\n

Furthermore, some parties appear to think that other nations\u00a0work\u00a0like China \u2013 that the entire country will stick to the official line and so you only need to worry about the official stance. I once heard an employee of a Chinese-funded firm complain: \u201cTheir government isn\u2019t saying anything, what are the NGOs and media doing going on about it?\u201d But these countries work differently \u2013 public opinion and official statements play complementary roles, with the public saying what the government is not able to\u00a0say\u00a0in order to apply pressure and leave the\u00a0authorities room to manoeuvre.<\/p>\n

But in China, we argue that diplomacy is too important to be left open to public debate and keep a lid on comment. If this means China cannot use public opinion to strengthen its voice internationally, so be it. But if the country applies this view overseas, believing that all it needs to do is win over government officials while public opinion can be ignored or fobbed off, the results will\u00a0be poor. Western diplomacy often takes a tough line with foreign governments but is softer with public opinion. In China, we used to joke that our officials were scared of foreigners, while the foreigners were scared of us. Maybe we should remember this when we are the foreigners.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

This article was first published in the\u00a0Economic Observer<\/a>.\u00a0It is reproduced here with permission.<\/p>\n

Qin Hui is professor of history at Tsinghua University<\/p>\n

PART ONE:\u00a0Pulling the wool over critics\u2019 eyes<\/a><\/p>\n

NEXT:\u00a0Taking lessons home<\/a><\/p>\n

Homepage image from\u00a0Paul Mannix<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
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