{"id":20001035,"date":"2011-01-24T16:39:33","date_gmt":"2011-01-24T11:09:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/184.172.177.95\/~chinad\/?p=1035"},"modified":"2021-01-08T16:05:37","modified_gmt":"2021-01-08T10:35:37","slug":"power-to-the-people-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/power-to-the-people-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Power to the people?"},"content":{"rendered":"

As winter power shortages shroud Nepal in familiar darkness,\u00a0Deepak Adhikari\u00a0unravels the country\u2019s hydro debate.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n\"\"<\/a>With winter in full swing, the spectre of planned power cuts, euphemistically called \u201cload shedding<\/a>\u201d, is\u00a0haunting Nepal’s electricity consumers. The country\u2019s\u00a0citizens\u00a0dread this time of year, which not only brings the Himalayan chill but also the inevitable power shortages,\u00a0beginning in October to November and continuing until the monsoon arrives in June or July.\u00a0By\u00a0February<\/a>\u00a0the cuts areexpected to intensify to 16 hours a day.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s a pattern that is fuelling the country\u2019s debate over hydroelectricity \u2013 as well as frustration with the failure to move forward with dam projects. With a government eager to build large-scale schemes pitted against an active civil society keener on small-scale hydropower, progress has stalled. And a middle way is needed fast.<\/p>\n

Nepal\u00a0was not supposed to be like this. Or so its people were led to believe. Almost all educated Nepalis know the official magnitude of hydroelectricity that the country\u2019s 6,000 rivers (many of them snow-fed) are capable of generating: 83,000 megawatts. But in a nation that produces a meagre\u00a0698 megawatts of hydropower\u00a0\u2013 far below demand \u2013 such extreme estimates are increasingly questioned.<\/p>\n

In a recent\u00a0article<\/a>\u00a0on Nepal\u2019s energy sector, two researchers sought to dispel the \u201c83,000 megawatts\u201d hydro-myth: \u201cA Russian Masters level student, who, unfortunately, was not able to travel to Nepal for his research, came up with this number,\u201d they wrote, referring to Dr\u00a0Hari Man Shrestha<\/a>, who carried out his research at the Moscow Power Institute. Citing two other contradictory figures (40,000 megawatts and 200,000 megawatts) that feature in discussion of the sector, the authors opined that a thorough study to establish the country\u2019s true hydro potential was badly needed.<\/p>\n

At a recent seminar on strengthening the\u00a0Nepal Electricity Authority<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a government body that buys, monitors and supplies electricity in Nepal \u2013 the energy minister,\u00a0Dr Prakash Sharan Mahat<\/a>, sounded cautious but optimistic. Reminding the audience of the ministry\u2019s goal to produce 10,000 megawatts in 10 years, he said: \u201cWe\u2019ll have to wait for four to five years, then we don\u2019t have to face load shedding.\u201d When a participant questioned the usefulness of a seminar conducted in a luxury hotel, he replied, \u201cWe should think big.\u201d<\/p>\n

To think big or small is at the heart of the hydro debate in Nepal, a country rich in biodiversity but also endowed with fast flowing rivers that surge through the Himalayas. The coalition government, like its predecessor, the\u00a0Maoist<\/a>\u00a0government, has promised to cash in on the nation\u2019s \u201cliquid gold\u201d. Though most of Nepal\u2019s hydroelectric power can be generated using\u00a0run-of-the-river<\/a>\u00a0systems, large dams, some argue, are inevitable for a nation only just emerging from the shadow of a decade-long\u00a0civil war<\/a>\u00a0and desperate for development and growth. Government policy therefore remains large-scale and export-oriented. But Nepal\u2019s \u201cbig thinking hydrology\u201d has seen strong opposition from a vibrant civil society, especially since the\u00a0restoration of democracy<\/a>\u00a0in 1990. Indeed, Nepal\u2019s quest to exploit hydropower potential mirrors the political upheaval of the past two decades.<\/p>\n

The early 1990s marked the World Bank\u2019s infamous withdrawal from the 404-megawatt\u00a0Arun III<\/a>\u00a0project located on the eponymous river in north-eastern Nepal. On the basis of a petition filed by members of the local community and activists, Nepal\u2019s Supreme Court ruled that the World Bank and Nepalese government must provide information on the project to the public. There were several criticisms of the scheme, including the fear of a rise in the electricity tariff (the project\u2019s estimated cost was US$5,400 [36,800 yuan] per kilowatt), the ecological impact of the plant on the rich biodiversity of the Arun Valley and the claim the project was too big for Nepal (the cost was equal to the country\u2019s entire annual budget).<\/p>\n

These concerns eventually forced the World Bank to back out, a phenomenon often equated with the shattering of the dream of prosperous Nepal. Writing a decade later in his book\u00a0In Defence of Democracy: Dynamics and Faultlines of Nepal’s Political Economy<\/a>, former finance minister Dr Ram Sharan Mahat\u00a0rues the project\u2019s demise: \u201cArun III was lost, and with it the attractive financial package whose benefits included the huge social profit potential to boost the national revenue also vanished.\u201d<\/p>\n

Then came the\u00a0Mahakali Treaty<\/a>\u00a0between Nepal and India in the mid-1990s, which envisioned the 315-metre high, multipurpose\u00a0Pancheshwar dam<\/a>, with water-storage capacity of 12.3 billion cubic metres and a 6,480 megawatt power house. Nepal\u2019s Supreme Court determined that the treaty required ratification by a two third majority of the parliament. After intense debate, the agreement was finally ratified on November 27, 1996, but deep disagreement split the main opposition party (the United Marxist Leninists). The treaty stipulated that the detailed project report (DPR) would be completed in six months, but more than 10 years after signing it, India and Nepal have failed to make significant progress.<\/p>\n

What could be the reason behind the initial euphoria and the now dormant status of the treaty? Some hydro-watchers say that India is not interested in exploiting and developing Nepal\u2019s hydro potential and is, rather, thirsty for water. The critics says that the Indian side is eager to build the 269-metre high dam at\u00a0\u00a0Barahkshetra<\/a>\u00a0on the\u00a0Kosi River<\/a>, a major contributor to the Ganges in India, as a solution to the annual\u00a0floods<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0Bihar<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Uttar Pradesh<\/a>, its two most populous states.<\/p>\n

Prashant Aryal, a Nepali journalist who has written extensively on Nepal\u2019s hydropower sector, says that India is drawn by water and irrigation, not electricity. \u201cIndia imports power from Bhutan, its friendly neighbour; it has signed nuclear deal with the US; and has its own hydro capacity in north-east and other parts,\u201d he says. \u201cSo, it would be incorrect to say that it is eyeing Nepal\u2019s hydroelectricity.\u201d Electrical engineer Bimal Gurung disagrees: \u201cIndia, which is increasingly drawn into the climate-change debate, can\u2019t use thermal plant,\u201d he argues. \u201cIt would be cheaper to import from its geographically close neighbour Nepal than from remote Bhutan.\u201d<\/p>\n

But the Bhutanese model, in which India builds the project and then imports the power, has drawn criticism from experts in Nepal. In an\u00a0article<\/a>\u00a0published in\u00a0Himal Southasian\u00a0magazine in August, leading water-resource expert\u00a0Dipak Gyawali<\/a>\u00a0termed the model, a \u201cneo-colonial path to power\u201d. In the much discussed article (Bhutan business news editor Tenzin Lamzang has\u00a0responded<\/a>\u00a0in the\u00a0Bhutan Times), he writes: \u201cA rent-seeking, royalty-earning model might enrich governments, politicians and senior bureaucrats for some time, much like the Arab sheikhdoms, but it does nothing to develop national capacity \u2013 which is what development is, in the true sense.\u201d<\/p>\n

The sentiment is echoed by Ratan Bhandari, a coordinator of the\u00a0Water and Energy Users\u2019 Federation Nepal<\/a>\u00a0(WAFED), an organisation that questions the utility of big dams and says that it fights for the benefit of the local people. \u201cWe are not anti-dam or anti-development per se,\u201d he clarifies at the outset, before elaborating on the disadvantages of big dams: \u201cThey displace many thousands of people, destroy local environment and benefit only the rich.\u201d In fact, Bhandari\u2019s own involvement in the protest movement parallels the development of a hydro project in his home village in western Nepal.<\/p>\n

The 750-megawatt\u00a0West Seti project<\/a>\u00a0has been through many\u00a0ups and downs<\/a>, culminating in the sudden withdrawal of its Chinese investor early last year. Initially conceived as a 77-megawatt run-of-the-river project, it was later optimised to a 195-metre, concrete face rockfill dam capable of producing 750 megawatts of electricity. But, if it goes ahead, it is feared the dam will displace the people of four districts. The reservoir will cover 25 square kilometres and have a volume of around 1.5 billion cubic metres. \u201cNo project can be successful without the inclusion of the local communities,\u201d Bhandari argues. \u201cWe should make sure that the projects are for our benefit not for some foreign investment company.\u201d He says that the very concept of exporting electricity to India is flawed because it is only raw material, not a product to be exported.<\/p>\n

Can Nepal itself develop the hydro projects that require huge investment? Bhandari and Gurung, who stand on opposite sides of the hydro debate, agree that there is money in Nepal but lack of security is hindering investment. Gurung argues that, since most of Nepal\u2019s hydro plants would be run-of-the-river, and if care is taken to construct earthquake resistant facilities, even big dams are realistic. \u201cThe structure should be designed properly,\u201d he says. \u201cFor rapid growth, big projects are what we need at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to US-based NGO\u00a0International Rivers<\/a>, 400,000 square kilometres of land has been submerged due to the construction of 40,000 big dams in the past 50 years. Critics of such dams say that there is no compensation for the social, economic and environmental cost of these projects.<\/p>\n

How can these opposing development narratives for Nepal be reconciled? Perhaps there is a middle way after all. As Bhandari says, \u201cNot all big dams are bad and not all small dams are good.\u201d The solution may be promoting micro hydropower as well as investing in environmentally friendly and sustainable medium-sized and large-scale projects.<\/p>\n

Deepak Adhikari is a Nepali journalist based in Kathmandu.<\/p>\n

Homepage image from imageshack<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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