{"id":20011184,"date":"2015-08-27T09:54:49","date_gmt":"2015-08-27T04:24:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=11184"},"modified":"2021-01-08T04:24:02","modified_gmt":"2021-01-07T22:54:02","slug":"el-nino-does-hit-the-monsoon-but-some-links-still-missing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/el-nino-does-hit-the-monsoon-but-some-links-still-missing\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o does hit the monsoon, but some links still missing"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fears of the impact of a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/a> \u2013 the warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean waters \u2013 on South Asia\u2019s monsoon system seem to have been confirmed by deficit rains in the region this year.<\/p>\n

More than halfway into the South Asian monsoon<\/a>, a crucial lifeline for agriculture in the subcontinent, the India Meteorological Department<\/a> (IMD) has recorded 10% deficit rain.<\/p>\n

“El Ni\u00f1o has adversely affected the monsoon so far, as per the model forecasts. It is also expected to affect the monsoon in the coming months,” India\u2019s Minister for Science and Technology Harsh Vardhan confirmed in a written reply to the Indian Parliament recently.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the strong El Ni\u00f1o conditions that we see since the last two months or so, to me, it looks that the current El Ni\u00f1o has played a major role in the 2015 monsoon rainfall deficit,\u201d Ashok Karumuri, associate professor, University Centre for Earth and Space Sciences at the Hyderabad University, told thethirdpole.net<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Adding to the impact is the absence of a rain-inducing event that scientists refer to as the \u2018Indian Ocean Dipole<\/a>\u2019 \u2013 the difference between in sea surface temperatures between India’s west and east coasts. It is this difference which leads to a lot of the rain in South Asia during the monsoon.<\/p>\n

Krishna Achuta Rao, associate professor at the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences<\/a> (CAOS), Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Delhi, is a little more cautious in his conclusion. \u201cThe developing El Ni\u00f1o does appear to be one of the strongest ever, on par or stronger than the 1997-98 event<\/a>,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, it is too early to conclusively say that the reason for the monsoon deficit is the El Ni\u00f1o. We have to remember that while 2014 wasn\u2019t officially an El Ni\u00f1o year, we still had a slight deficit.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year the monsoon is not yet over yet, but the rainfall\u00a0received so far is found to be below normal. El Ni\u00f1o conditions are prevailing in the Pacific, but we can\u2019t say the last word because the strongest phase of El Ni\u00f1o is yet to come, in December,\u201d added P.K. Dinesh Kumar, scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography<\/a>\u2019s regional centre in the coastal town of Kochi in Kerala.<\/p>\n

Changing El Ni<\/strong>\u00f1<\/strong>o<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Of late, scientists have been reporting changes in El Ni\u00f1o trends in the Pacific, and parallel weaker monsoon rains over South Asia.<\/p>\n

At a session on climate modelling at a workshop on climate change held at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences<\/a> (TISS), Mumbai, on July 31-Aug 1, Karumuri reported how El Ni\u00f1o, “one of the strongest drivers” of monsoon rainfall over South Asia, has been changing in recent years.<\/p>\n

More warming has been observed in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, rather than the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as was seen earlier. The impact of a Central Pacific El Ni\u00f1o would be greater over the South Asian monsoon system, with more dry spells, he said.<\/p>\n

In 2007, Karumuri, who was then with the\u00a0Frontier research Center for Global Change<\/a> \u00a0at \u00a0the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology<\/a>,\u00a0had used the term \u2018El Ni\u00f1o Modoki<\/a>\u2019 (Modoki is Japanese for \u2018same but different\u2019) for the central Pacific El Ni\u00f1o. \u201cEl Ni\u00f1o Modokis have a maximum anomalous warming in central tropical Pacific for more than a few seasons, generally also flanked by cooling on both sides in summer,\u201d he explained. These events influence the South Asian summer rains, particularly in the Indian peninsula, he added.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt turns out that these central Pacific warming events affect the monsoon adversely compared to the eastern Pacific ones,\u201d agreed Achuta Rao. \u201cThe central Pacific warming appear to have been more frequent in recent decades compared to historically typical east Pacific warming events.\u201d<\/p>\n

Karumuri was also part of an international team from France, India and the US who in June this year reported<\/a> in Nature about the drying of the Indian subcontinent, with rapid Indian Ocean warming and fewer temperature differences between the land and sea in the region.<\/p>\n

Their analysis, using multiple data sets, showed a \u201csignificant weakening trend\u201d in summer rainfall during 1901-2012 over the central-east and northern regions of India, along the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna<\/a> basins and the Himalayan foothills.<\/p>\n

They reported that temperature differences between land and sea in South Asia were declining due to rapid warming in the Indian Ocean, and a relatively subdued warming over the subcontinent. They concluded that higher warming in the Indian Ocean dampened summer monsoon circulation and reduced rainfall over parts of South Asia.<\/p>\n

At the TISS workshop, Achuta Rao observed changes in the climate in South Asia \u2013 there were inter-decadal variations in monsoon rains, with a noticeable declining trend in monsoon rainfall, more frequent deficit monsoon rains, an increase in monsoon breaks and rise in sea surface temperatures. \u201cThe frequency of heavy precipitation events is increasing, while light rain events are decreasing,\u201d he said at the workshop.<\/p>\n

The observations add to recent research<\/a> published by the Kochi and Visakhapatnam regional centres of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research\u2019s National Institute of Oceanography in the journal Regional Studies in Marine Science.<\/p>\n

Warming sea<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Scientists from the two centres analysed historical weather data sets from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal from 1880 to 2010, and noted higher sea surface temperatures, especially from 1960 to 2010, in both the basins.<\/p>\n

They found sea temperatures were rising faster in the Bay of Bengal than in the Arabian Sea.<\/p>\n

The team next studied whether the rise in sea temperature was linked to three climatic events \u2013 El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a (the reverse of El Nino, cooling of Pacific waters) and the Indian Ocean Dipole.<\/p>\n

They found that climatic events caused sea temperatures to peak in April and May, as well as cool in September in both the basins. These anomalies over the study period 1880-2011 were linked to occurrences of El Ni\u00f1o, La Ni\u00f1a and the Indian Ocean Dipole.<\/p>\n

They reported that warmer sea surface temperatures were linked to El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Although research does not elaborate on the El Ni\u00f1o-monsoon relationship directly, it shows that Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal sea surface temperatures are increasing at a constant pace, said Dinesh Kumar, lead author of the paper. This, in turn, will result in\u00a0less differential heating of the land and sea, which reduces the strength of the monsoon.<\/p>\n

Trouble brewing<\/strong><\/h2>\n

While the financial implications of a weak monsoon will be computed only after the season gets over in September, smallholder farmers across South Asia will clearly be the worst hit.<\/p>\n

In India, agriculture now contributes less than 12% of the GDP, so the impact on the economy may be manageable. But over half the 1.25 billion Indians still depend on farming for their livelihoods. And of the farmers, an estimated 61% are in areas without irrigation. Mostly with holdings of less than acre, these farmers are always the worst sufferers whenever the monsoon is poor.<\/p>\n

Prices of a few staple food items like onions have started rising already, and the government has raised its minimum export price in an effort to check the rise in the domestic market. Apart from that, there is not yet any sign that the authorities are preparing to tackle the economic fallout of a deficit monsoon, either this year or into the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Experts say there is a correlation between El Ni\u00f1o and the weak monsoon in South Asia this year, though a conclusive link is yet to be established<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20000187,"featured_media":20015299,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[519,543],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000111],"class_list":["post-20011184","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-climate-impacts","tag-extreme-weather","country-india"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEl Ni\u00f1o does hit the monsoon, but some links still missing | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Experts say there is a correlation between El Ni\u00f1o and the weak monsoon in South Asia this year, though a conclusive link is yet to be established\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/el-nino-does-hit-the-monsoon-but-some-links-still-missing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Ni\u00f1o does hit the monsoon, but some links still missing\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Experts say there is a correlation between El Ni\u00f1o and the weak monsoon in South Asia this year, though a conclusive link is yet to be established\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/el-nino-does-hit-the-monsoon-but-some-links-still-missing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2015-08-27T04:24:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-01-07T22:54:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2015\/08\/GP0STOYPY_Low_res_with_credit_line.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"400\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"T.V. 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