{"id":20017007,"date":"2015-12-10T12:39:43","date_gmt":"2015-12-10T07:09:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=17007"},"modified":"2021-01-06T22:14:45","modified_gmt":"2021-01-06T16:44:45","slug":"melting-permafrost-could-blow-worlds-remaining-carbon-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/melting-permafrost-could-blow-worlds-remaining-carbon-budget\/","title":{"rendered":"Melting permafrost could blow world\u2019s remaining carbon budget"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the world struggles to ink a new climate deal to save the planet from\u00a0the\u00a0irreversible perils of global warming, countries are rushing to claim their share of the world\u2019s remaining carbon budget.<\/p>\n

The world\u2019s \u201ccarbon budget\u201d, scientists say, is the total\u00a0amount of carbon dioxide that we can emit and still keep warming\u00a0below 2 degrees Celsius. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts this figure at an additional\u00a0275 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide<\/a>\u00a0by 2100.<\/p>\n

As negotiations continue, the world is divided between developed nations \u2013 who have consumed much of the carbon space already \u2013 and developing countries who want burn the remaining budget to develop their economies.<\/p>\n

But amid this fight, the world has missed a stark point: the remaining carbon budget maybe much smaller than previously thought.\u00a0 This is because the world is sitting on a time bomb as frozen soil, known as permafrost,<\/strong>\u00a0begins to melt, releasing potentially vast amounts of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

Permafrost is the perennially frozen soil that underpins 25% of the Northern Hemisphere and extends across the vast tundra of the Arctic, Siberia and the thinner soil of the Tibetan Plateau. \u00a0This frozen soil holds vast amounts of organic carbon in the form of plant and animal matter. As the permafrost thaws, bacteria start chewing up the organic matter it contains.\u00a0This releases yet more carbon dioxide, as well as methane, another greenhouse gas, which has 25 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n

A new report \u2018Thresholds and Closing Windows\u2019<\/a>\u00a0released by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative on the side lines of the Paris climate summit this week, presents two scenarios showing the impacts of thawing permafrost on greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs the permafrost thaws, organic matter will be decomposed by the bacteria and release carbon. So this is a positive feedback and the emissions in turn will lead to further amplification of global warming,\u201d said Susan Natali, from the Woods Hole Research Center who presented the report.<\/p>\n

The Polar Regions and Tibetan plateau are already warming two to three times faster than the global average. If the world makes drastic emissions cuts and limits warming to near 1.5 degrees, 30% of permafrost will melt, releasing an additional 50 gigatonnes of carbon by 2100, the report warns.<\/p>\n

But given the current emission cuts pledged by countries at Paris,\u00a0global temperatures are set to rise by 2.7 \u2013 3.5 degrees Celsius. In such a scenario, permafrost melt could release an extra\u00a0100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n

If average global temperatures rise beyond 4.5 degrees Celsius, 70% of its permafrost will disappear, releasing 130-160 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide straight into the atmosphere \u2013 almost two thirds the remaining global carbon budget.<\/p>\n

Experts say the only way to stop melting permafrost from warming up the planet is to take drastic low carbon measures.<\/p>\n

Irreversible damage<\/strong><\/p>\n

An estimated 1,500 gigatonnes of carbon is stored in permafrost \u2013 twice the amount of carbon in the atmosphere.\u00a0\u201cPermafrost is the largest vulnerable carbon pool on planet and once it thaws, no action can stop it,\u201d said Natali. \u201cEmissions from permafrost need to be accounted for in global carbon emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report also highlighted the risks that come with major ice loss: \u201cthe very nature of cryosphere \u2013 regions of snow and ice \u2013 carries dynamics that once started, cannot always be revered or even halted, even if temperatures were somehow returned to lower values.\u201d<\/p>\n

The report\u2019s scientific findings prove that changes to the cryosphere will be permanent, including loss of mountain glaciers, loss of portions of West Antarctica\u2019s ice sheets and complete annual loss of summer Arctic sea ice.<\/p>\n

Glaciologist Dr Georg Kaser from the University of Innsbruck said projections show that the Himalayas could lose 70% of its glaciers volume by 2100 even if global temperatures rise by only 1.5 degrees Celsius.<\/p>\n

Local impacts<\/strong><\/p>\n

Melting permafrost has\u00a0direct local impacts as well. It\u00a0changes local ecology\u00a0and\u00a0plays havoc with human structures, such as buildings, roads and pipelines, that sit on top of it. Thawing of soil has led to the collapse of houses in Ladakh in India and destabilised the Qinghai-Tibet railway in China.<\/p>\n

A recent report from the Chinese Academy of Science warned\u00a0melting permafrost on the Tibetan plateau<\/a>\u00a0was one of the most serious threats to the region\u2019s fragile ecosystem.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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