{"id":20023892,"date":"2018-02-13T12:30:43","date_gmt":"2018-02-13T07:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=23892"},"modified":"2021-05-14T20:07:32","modified_gmt":"2021-05-14T14:37:32","slug":"rhododendron-bloom-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/rhododendron-bloom-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Rhododendron bloom early in the Himalayas"},"content":{"rendered":"

Something unusual happened this year in the hills of Uttarakhand in northern India \u2014 the rhododendron bloomed in January. The blooming, celebrated as flower day (phool sankranti<\/em>) across the Himalayan state, usually heralds the onset of spring.\u00a0But the blooming of Rhododendron two-three months early, due to an unusually warm spell, could be a result of\u00a0climate change<\/a>, some researchers say.<\/p>\n

Rhododendron blossom, Rhododendron arboretum<\/em>, a small evergreen tree locally known as\u00a0buransh<\/em>, is flowering early because\u00a0temperatures are rising<\/a>\u00a0in the hills. Rhododendron needs a temperature of 15-20 degree Celsius to bloom, which is the average temperature in the months of March and April in middle and higher reaches of the Himalayas. But, for the last few years, the winter months have recorded high temperatures leading to the early flowering.<\/p>\n

This phenomenon was first noted in a\u00a02014<\/a>\u00a0study, which, based on real-time field observations from 2009-11, showed peak flowering of rhododendrons from early February to mid-March. Earlier, the full bloom used to be from March to May. The same study also analysed long-term temperature data of the region from 1971 to 2011 and found a significant increase in mean maximum temperature.<\/p>\n

Rhododendron isn\u2019t the only tree in Uttarakhand affected due to rising temperature and changing climate. Kaphal (Myrica esculenta<\/a><\/em>), a local tree with edible fruits much loved in jams, jellies and pickles, has also been\u00a0bearing fruit\u00a0three-four months\u00a0earlier<\/a>. In the adjoining hill state of Himachal Pradesh, reports of early flowering of\u00a0mango and lychee\u00a0<\/a>trees are pouring in.<\/p>\n

Why are Rhododendrons flowering early?<\/h2>\n

Whereas it is hard to pinpoint the exact reason for early flowering and early fruiting of trees in the Hindu Kush Himalayas, meteorologists say the changing pattern of the western disturbances (WDs), the only source of winter precipitation in the mountains and also the plains of Pakistan and northern India, could be an important contributing factor.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe early flowering of trees in these hill states means early onset of spring-like conditions, which is an indication of improper winter and lack of winter precipitation, as winter rains and snowfall help lower the temperature,\u201d Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist, told\u00a0indiaclimatedialogue.net<\/a>. \u201cThe only source of winter precipitation in northern India is western disturbances that seem to be weakening during winter months.\u201d<\/p>\n

Deoras, along with Soumik Basu and Peter Bieniek, carried out a\u00a0study<\/a>\u00a0last year published in the\u00a0Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences<\/a>, which documented reduced western disturbance activity over northwest India during 2014-15.<\/p>\n

Grim situation<\/strong><\/h2>\n

The winter precipitation situation remains grim. As per India Meteorological Department\u2019s (IMD<\/a>) rainfall map for January 2018, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) had a large rainfall and snowfall deficit of 95%. Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, too, have large deficits of 91% and 66%, respectively, for the same month.<\/p>\n

A\u00a0western disturbance<\/a>\u00a0(WD) is an extra-tropical storm\u00a0that originates in the Mediterranean region. This disturbance, essentially an area of reduced air pressure, carries moisture in an easterly direction from the Mediterranean Sea and the Caspian Sea. It carries rain and snow to Pakistan and northern India. The WD is associated with winter rainfall, snowfall and fog in northern India.<\/p>\n

WDs are crucial for winter precipitation in north India. \u201cDuring December, January and February, WD snowfall is the dominant precipitation input to establish and sustain regional snowpack, replenishing regional water resources\u2026 WD wintertime precipitation provides critical mass input to existing glaciers and modulates the albedo characteristics of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, affecting large-scale circulation and the onset of the succeeding Indian Summer Monsoon,\u201d reads an April 2015 research\u00a0paper<\/a>\u00a0titled\u00a0Western Disturbances: A Review<\/a>.<\/p>\n

However, in the last four to five years, meteorologists have observed a changing pattern in WDs. \u201cNormally there used to be six to seven WDs a month in north India during the winter, of which two to three were strong WDs. These seem to have reduced,\u201d said Deoras.<\/p>\n

The timing of WDs is also changing, he said. For instance, the September\u00a02014 floods\u00a0<\/a>in Kashmir and the\u00a0June 2013\u00a0<\/a>flooding disaster in Uttarakhand were caused due to strong WDs. Untimely\u00a0hailstorms<\/a>\u00a0in Marathwada and parts of Central India have also been linked to WDs.<\/p>\n

\u201cApart from the frequency of WDs, even their strength is reducing in winters, which needs careful scientific examination as changes in WDs will have a direct impact on the water resources, hydropower generation and Rabi (winter) crops,\u201d Deoras told\u00a0indiaclimatedialogue.net<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Changing disturbances<\/strong><\/h2>\n

\u201cDespite the fact that WDs play a very important role in India\u2019s winter weather, limited research has been done to investigate the causes of their inter-annual variability,\u201d reads the 2017 research\u00a0study<\/a>. Only a handful of studies have documented the changing pattern of WDs in north India.<\/p>\n

In one such study,\u00a0Winter frequency of western disturbances and precipitation indices over Himachal Pradesh, India: 1977-2007<\/a>, published in January 2015, researchers examined the temporal variability in the winter month frequency of WDs and various precipitation indices like wet days, rainy days, rather heavy and heavy precipitation days, and precipitation intensity from 1977 to 2007 over Himachal Pradesh. They found a statistically significant decreasing trend in the frequency of WDs over the region.<\/p>\n

\u201cSince winter precipitation in Himachal Pradesh mainly occurs due to WDs, total winter precipitation and frequency of rather heavy and heavy precipitation days have decreased over the region,\u201d noted the 2015 study, which also reported a decrease of about 25% in heavy precipitation days and of 13% in total winter precipitation from their respective mean (from 1977 to 2007) over Himachal Pradesh.<\/p>\n

The same year, another landmark study titled\u00a0Changes in western disturbances over the Western-Himalayas in a warming environment<\/a>\u00a0by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM<\/a>) pointed out that the western Himalayan region has witnessed a significant rise in surface temperatures since the 1950s. Data analysed by IITM researchers found temperature differences between the Himalayas (sub-tropics) and mid-latitudes have gone up due to warming in the Tibetan Plateau, which is conducive to WD and its increased variability.<\/p>\n

Rising winter temperatures<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Rising winter temperature in the hill states of northern India has been recorded in the IMD\u2019s 2013 monograph,\u00a0State Level Climate Change Trends in India<\/a>, which has analysed long-term (1951 to 2010) temperature and rainfall data from hundreds of weather monitoring stations across India. \u201cThe highest increase in winter mean maximum temperature (across India) was obtained for Himachal Pradesh (plus 0.06 degree Celsius per year),\u201d it said. Uttarakhand, too, showed a significant increase (plus 0.02 degree Celsius per year) in winter mean maximum temperature.<\/p>\n

Scientists have projected that a winter temperature rise of 0.5 degree Celsius will\u00a0reduce<\/a>\u00a0rain-fed wheat yield by 0.45 tonnes per hectare in India.<\/p>\n

Climate change and western disturbance<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Climate change will make WDs more erratic, scientists forecast. Changes in the climate impact\u00a0jet streams<\/a>, which in turn impact the WDs. A jet stream is a river-like current of air circulating across the globe at upper levels of the troposphere (at around 30,000 feet). The jet stream has a direct impact on weather. For instance, when a broad low-pressure region, also known as trough, is present, this current dips southward, creating a kind of U-shape. This shape reflects presence of WD.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe jet stream is a result of temperature difference between the poles and the tropical regions. Currently, the warming rate at the poles, especially the Arctic region, is almost double than that of the rest of the world. This is reducing the temperature difference and is believed to be slowing the jet stream,\u201d said Deoras. In spite of this, we don\u2019t have a clear idea about WDs in the future climate due to lack of research, he added.<\/p>\n

Acknowledging the non-uniform winter precipitation in the Srinagar Valley, Sonam Lotus, director of Meteorological Centre, Srinagar (J&K), said a comprehensive study of climate and changing pattern of WDs needs a minimum of 30 years data. \u201cOne or two events cannot give us a clear picture, although it is a cause for concern,\u201d he told\u00a0indiaclimatedialogue.net<\/a>. The\u00a0J&K State Climate Change Action Plan<\/a>\u00a0notes that the \u201camount of snowfall has reduced over the years\u201d.<\/p>\n

Climate change and changing pattern of the WDs are expected to impact the Himalayan glaciers. \u201cWinter WD precipitation provides critical mass input to glaciers and snowpack. In the spring, snowpack melt provides essential runoff to the regional river networks and to replenish groundwater storage at low elevations. While it seems that increasing air temperatures in the future will push the beginning of the melt season to earlier in the year, and glaciers in headwater basins of the Ganga appear to be on a continued decline, it is not clear whether snowmelt runoff will continue to increase in the future since this depends on the snow accumulation regime of WDs,\u201d reads the April 2015\u00a0paper<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Keeping in mind the crucial role WDs play in securing water resources and winter crops in northern India, it is imperative that the changing pattern of these extra-tropical storms is studied and its impacts recorded so that an action plan can be drawn to address the emerging challenges.<\/p>\n

This article was first published on indiaclimatedialogue.net<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The \u2018western disturbances\u2019 that bring rain and snow to the mountains every winter have themselves been disturbed by climate change, leading to warmer and shorter winters and untimely flowering of the famous flower<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":581,"featured_media":20037877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,764],"tags":[511,519],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000111],"class_list":["post-20023892","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-nature","tag-biodiversity","tag-climate-impacts","country-india"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRhododendron bloom early in the Himalayas | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The \u2018western disturbances\u2019 that bring rain and snow to the mountains every winter have been altered by climate change, leading to early flowering 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