{"id":20026233,"date":"2018-11-28T11:21:38","date_gmt":"2018-11-28T05:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=26233"},"modified":"2021-01-05T17:57:20","modified_gmt":"2021-01-05T12:27:20","slug":"governments-leading-world-to-disastrous-warming-un","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/governments-leading-world-to-disastrous-warming-un\/","title":{"rendered":"Governments leading world to disastrous warming: UN"},"content":{"rendered":"

Governments will not be able to uphold the Paris Climate Agreement, and with business as usual, we are heading for a 3\u00b0C warmer world, says UN Environment. The private sector may be the only saviour, it adds in its Emissions Gap Report 2018<\/a> that comes three days before the G20 summit<\/a> in Buenos Aires.<\/p>\n

G20 countries account for around 80% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The UN says six of them \u2013 US, Canada, South Korea, Mexico, South Africa and Indonesia \u2013 are not on target to meet their emission control pledges by 2020.<\/p>\n

Individually, the US, Australia, Canada, EU, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Argentina and South Africa fall short. China, Japan and Brazil are on track, while India, Russia and Turkey are doing better than they had pledged, though this probably means they pledged little.<\/p>\n

This ninth edition of the report also comes just days before the next climate summit<\/a> in Poland, and a few weeks after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change produced a special report<\/a> on what the world has to do if it wants to keep average global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level.<\/p>\n

See: 1.5 degree ambition demands radical change, UN warns<\/a><\/p>\n

Under the Paris Agreement<\/a>, all governments had pledged to keep this rise well below two degrees Celsius, with the 1.5 degree ceiling an aspirational goal. UN Environment now says, \u201cIt is still possible to keep global warming below 2\u00b0C, but the technical feasibility of bridging the 1.5\u00b0C gap is dwindling.\u201d<\/p>\n

If governments really want to keep the promises they made in Paris in 2015, they must raise their ambition by three times to meet the 2\u00b0C target and by five times to meet 1.5\u00b0C, says UN Environment. The Paris Agreement does have a provision for countries to raise ambition, and make fresh pledges in 2020. Negotiations on that have turned increasingly fractious, with most key governments trying to pass the parcel.<\/p>\n

In this situation, the UN warns, if governments do not raise their ambitions by 2030, \u201cExceeding the 1.5\u00b0C goal can no longer be avoided.\u201d It also says, \u201cIf the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is very plausible that the goal of a well-below 2\u00b0C temperature increase is also out of reach.\u201d<\/p>\n

The world is now just over 1\u00b0C warmer than in pre-industrial times, and already facing more severe and more frequent storms, floods and droughts, while the sea level is rising, and rainfall is getting more uncertain, affecting farm production.<\/p>\n

See: Floods and droughts \u2013 weather extremes beyond 1.5 Celsius<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

As for emissions, the situation is getting worse, not just because US President Donald Trump has announced his government will withdraw from the Paris Agreement. Global carbon dioxide emissions increased in 2017, after a three-year period of stabilisation. Carbon dioxide is the main contributor among greenhouse gases that are warming the atmosphere. The UN says emissions should peak by 2020 if the Paris Agreement goal is to be met, but they still show no sign of peaking.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Image from the Emissions Gap Report 2018<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The emissions gap<\/strong><\/p>\n

UN Environment warns, \u201cIf the emissions gap is not closed by 2030, it is extremely unlikely that the 2\u00b0C temperature goal can still be reached.\u201d<\/p>\n

Every year, this report of UN Environment assesses the gap between anticipated emission levels in 2030, compared to levels consistent with a target of keeping average global temperature rise within 2\u00b0C or 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

This year, the authors find that 57 countries, representing 60% of global emissions, are on track to close the gap by 2030. But that is not enough. \u201cThe current pace of national action is insufficient to meet the Paris targets. Increased emissions and lagging action means the gap number in this year\u2019s report is larger than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n

Joyce Msuya, UN Environment\u2019s Deputy Executive Director, said, \u201cGovernments need to move faster and with greater urgency. We\u2019re feeding this fire while the means to extinguish it are within reach.\u201d<\/p>\n

Msuya is the acting head of the organisation after Erik Solheim was forced to quit by countries \u2013 including his native Norway \u2013 refusing to foot the bill for his extensive travels.<\/p>\n

The report highlights that there is still a possibility for bridging the emissions gap and keeping global warming below 2\u00b0C. But, it says, \u201cThe kind of drastic, large-scale action we urgently need is yet to be seen.\u201d<\/p>\n

The solution <\/strong><\/p>\n

Moving from analysis of government actions, the authors of this edition analysed global emissions in the context of fiscal policy, the current pace of innovation and climate action from the private sector and sub-national levels to offer their roadmap for the kind of \u201ctransformative action\u201d required.<\/p>\n

This is based on their estimate that city, state and regional governments, plus companies and investors can reduce annual emissions by 19 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030, enough to close the gap to 2\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

\u201cComplemented by carefully designed fiscal policy, the potential is even greater,\u201d said Jian Liu, UN Environment\u2019s Chief Scientist. \u201cWhen governments embrace fiscal policy measures to subsidise low-emission alternatives and tax fossil fuels, they can stimulate the right investments in the energy sector and significantly reduce carbon emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThe potential of using fiscal policy as an incentive is increasingly recognised,\u201d he added, \u201cwith 51 carbon pricing initiatives now in place or scheduled, covering roughly 15% of global emissions. If all fossil fuel subsidies were phased out, global carbon emissions could be reduced by up to 10% by 2030. Setting the right carbon price is also essential. At US $70 per ton of CO2<\/sub>, emission reductions of up to 40% are possible in some countries.\u201d<\/p>\n

Now that the US government has contradicted its own President and reported that climate change is a huge and present risk to the country<\/a>, a group of American investors has demanded that the Trump administration remove its fossil fuel subsidies right away.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Not enough governments are on track to cut carbon emissions, but private sector could be the saviour if coal, oil and gas subsidies are removed, UN Environment 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