{"id":20026444,"date":"2019-01-08T13:07:54","date_gmt":"2019-01-08T07:37:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=26444"},"modified":"2020-12-15T22:51:19","modified_gmt":"2020-12-15T17:21:19","slug":"dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/water\/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali\/","title":{"rendered":"Dams and dreams \u2013 a journey down the Karnali"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is the second part in a five part series on the Karnali River. <\/em>See also: <\/em><\/p>\n

Faith to reality: A journey down the Karnali River from Tibet to India<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Part 1: Living in fear of floods<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

Dal Bahadur Shahi lives in Twinkuna, in Dailekh<\/a> district of western Nepal. This is the proposed site for Nepal\u2019s largest hydropower dam \u2013 the 900 megawatt (MW) Upper Karnali.<\/a> He was in his 50s when he first heard that electricity would be produced from the river he used to cross several times a day.<\/p>\n

The dam was first proposed 30 years ago, but there is still no electricity.  Shahi\u2019s life has not changed, apart from the wrinkles deepening on his face.<\/p>\n

A few weeks after the withdrawal of the monsoon<\/a> in early October we were camping on the river sands near his house, as part of our 1,000-kilometre journey along the river from the Tibetan plateau to India. Shahi drove down before sunset to see what we were doing. He walked around our tents a couple of times before coming to talk to us.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy arms could conquer the strongest waves of the river back then, but now I don\u2019t dare to go near it,\u201d he said. He seemed hopeful but tired. \u201cEven if it (the hydropower project) is built in the near future, I won\u2019t be able to see it as I am getting older. But I hope that our sacrifice of leaving this place for the sake of the nation will not be forgotten,\u201d he lowered his voice as the sun disappeared into the mountains.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Dal Bahadur Shahi in Twinkuna in Dailekh district in the bank of Karnali River where the biggest hydropower projects is about to kick off. Shahi’s family will be displaced once the dam construction starts [Image by: Nabin Baral]<\/figcaption><\/figure>According to Nepal\u2019s Investment Board<\/a>, the project will acquire about 50 hectares of private land and 200 hectares of government land. About 250 households will be displaced.<\/a><\/p>\n

In the late 1990s, when the first project survey began, one of the engineers advised Dal Bahadur to buy more land so that he would receive compensation when the dam was built. But Shahi didn\u2019t take his advice seriously; he didn\u2019t have enough money anyway. There was no road, no mobile signal, no televisions in the area, but he heard on the radio that some projects were underway.<\/p>\n

Hopes rise and fall<\/strong><\/p>\n

Time and again international companies and the Nepali government conducted surveys in the Karnali, but the locals were unaware of the wider water and electricity politics at play.<\/p>\n

In 2008 an Indian company, GMR<\/a> one of the biggest infrastructure companies in the country, received a deal to carry out a detailed study, but a decade later the project is yet to take off. The company signed the project development agreement four years ago but has not yet managed to attract investors.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Dam site of the Upper Karnali hydropower (900 MW) in Daab, Dailekh district. Indian company GMR is preparing for construction but hasn’t raised enough finance yet [image by Nabin Baral].<\/figcaption><\/figure>\u201cI don\u2019t think this company has money. It looks like it will sell the licence of this project at higher price to another company and then this project will be delayed for years,\u201d another resident, Lokendra Rawat said.<\/p>\n

Compensation dries up<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rawat left his village in 2008 when the company set up a project office. \u201cI came here to operate a hotel as the construction work would bring a lot of people. But it looks like I will be too old when it will be implemented,\u201d he smiled. Rawat doesn\u2019t have legal land rights so he built a small hut near the road illegally and has been staying there in the hope that one day he will have a chance to run a hotel after the dam project starts.<\/p>\n

Recently the company said it had provided compensation for the 250-odd families whose land will be submerged by the dam but only a few people have received it. Dal Bahadur\u2019s two sons were lucky to get compensation for their land at NPR 9 lakhs [USD 9,000] per ropani (about 500 square metres) a few months ago. The company has now halted the compensation process and no one knows why or when it will be resumed.<\/p>\n

People living at the dam site in Balde about 30 kilometres downstream said that the company is only paying compensation to influential and politically powerful people. \u201cSome people have received money and have already bought land and houses in cities in the southern plains, but we haven\u2019t been given anything yet. The land price will soar in a year. Then how do we buy new land,\u201d asked Roshan Buda in Balde. \u201cThe company listens to people who speak up and threaten them, but they turn deaf ears to us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Political power play<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Karnali has always been a high profile political project. The Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, and Nepal\u2019s then Prime Minister Sushil Koirala signed a deal for the Karnali dam during Modi\u2019s visit to Nepal in 2014.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Roshan Buda and her family preparing a meal in Rabalde, Accham district. This is the power house site of the Upper Karnali hydropower project and the family will soon be displaced [image by Nabin Baral]<\/figcaption><\/figure>But investors haven\u2019t been convinced by the controversial project and it\u2019s not clear who will buy the electricity. The project is designed to generate power for export to India, but there is no power purchase agreement.<\/p>\n

Frustrated by the lack of progress in India, last year the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Bangladesh, which could buy the electricity. Later in August this year Nepal signed a cooperation agreement<\/a> with Bangladesh aimed to facilitate trade between the two countries.<\/p>\n

Nepal needs permission from India to take electricity across India to Bangladesh so all three countries need to agree on a deal. But experts say it\u2019s not easy given the complex geopolitics of the region. However, India recently indicated that it\u2019s open to trilateral trade by amending its earlier cross border trade regulation.<\/p>\n

Some speculate that this move to ease the trade of electricity was only to help the Indian company GMR to secure finance for the Karnali dam. Nevertheless the amendment is also good news for Chinese and other companies who have been eyeing bigger projects in Nepal. \u201cThere are technical difficulties and we will unlock them, but it\u2019s certainly a good move,\u201d said Barshaman Pun, Nepal\u2019s water resources minister during a recent press meeting.<\/p>\n

Rising ambitions<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Karnali dam was first envisaged as a 240 MW project in the 1990s, but the project has grown in scale over the decades.<\/p>\n

GMR agreed to build a 900 MW project in 2008, but some technocrats and activists have blamed Nepal\u2019s government for selling the project short.<\/p>\n

The feasibility studies<\/a> identified the possibility of developing a 4,180 MW project a little further upriver from where the current 900 MW project is planned. Whether this is really possible or not – especially given the fragile geography of the region – is another matter, but the numbers have generated intense speculation. \u201cWhy was the best and cheapest project handed over to a foreign company who will export the energy, while we have a shortage of power? It should be developed for us,\u201d said Ratan Bhandari, a water rights activist from the region.<\/p>\n

The current project will still be the biggest hydropower investment, worth about USD 1.5 billion. The Upper Karnali has rare hydropower potential, where water can be pushed through a 2.5 kilometre tunnel over a drop of 130 metres, creating a huge generating capacity. This project is often called Nepal\u2019s \u201cjewel in the crown\u201d. \u201cThe jewel has been sold at the rate of coal,\u201d Ratna Sansar Shrestha, a hydro-economist told thethirdpole.net<\/a> two years ago.<\/p>\n

Dangerous dam building<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nepal\u2019s move towards big dams has come at a time when scientists warn that more extreme weather events like floods and landslides will increase in already fragile mountain regions. These warnings have been largely ignored in Nepal. In next few months, Nepal\u2019s largest hydropower dam so far,  the 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi will be completed in eastern Nepal, whereas another 900 MW Arun III (in the east) and 900 MW Upper Karnali (in the west) are in the offing. But, there is little consideration of impacts of climate change on Nepal\u2019s hydropower sector.<\/p>\n

Several studies have show increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation and snow have resulted in an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events. A 2015  report<\/a> by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development reviewed the impacts of climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, including Nepal: \u201cThe changing probabilities and magnitudes of extreme events can place additional risk on power generation infrastructure (dams and hydropower plants) as well as secondary infrastructure (roads and transmission lines). Further, hazards associated with shrinking glaciers, such as glacial lake outburst floods, can jeopardise large infrastructure investment,\u201d the report stated. Other studies have quantified glacier melt in Nepal, including a 2014 study<\/a> that revealed Nepal\u2019s glaciers have shrunk by 24% and its ice reserves by 29% over the past three decades.<\/p>\n

However, developers say that current knowledge about the impacts of climate change on hydropower is inadequate and this hinders better planning. While reports say that hydropower projects will be affected they lack the details as to what degree, and what precisely to take into consideration, said Kumar Pandey, vice-president of the Independent Power Producers Association Nepal<\/a> (IPPAN) \u2014 the national agency of private hydro investors. \u201cInvestors need accurate information with evidence at micro scale so that they can use it while developing the project,\u201d added Pandey.<\/p>\n

This may be an unrealistic expectation. \u201cClimate science is complex, however there are clear indications that large infrastructures will be impacted if current changes in temperature and precipitation in the region is not taken into account,\u201d said Ajaya Dixit, executive director at ISET-Nepal.<\/p>\n

It’s not only climate change,  seismologists are warning that western Nepal is waiting for another big earthquake after the 2015 earthquake that killed more than 10,000 people. \u201cThere are two dangers lurking beneath the Himalaya: one is the unfinished business of 2015, and the other is a looming mega quake in western Nepal,\u201d reported Nepali Times<\/a> recently. Large hydroprojects like the Upper Karnali would be impacted if it happens but these issues are ignored in a hydro sector dominated by politics.<\/p>\n

Rivers, fish and tourism suffer <\/strong><\/p>\n

If built, this will be the first hydropower project on the Karnali, the country\u2019s longest river which originates near Mount Kailash in Tibet and becomes Ghaghara in India before it meets the Ganga at the border of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.<\/p>\n

\"Rabalde,
In Rabalde, the power house site of the Upper Karnali hydropower project is seen through a fishing net hung in Roshan Buda’a home in Accham. The zinc roofed buildings in the field are the offices of GMR company which is building the project [image by Nabin Baral].<\/figcaption><\/figure>Nepal has sought to aggressively develop hydropower over the last few years. The country currently generates 1,100 MW of hydropower energy and the Nepal Electricity Authority<\/a> recently said that about 750 MW of electricity will be added to the main grid by mid-2019. The country\u2019s largest project in eastern Nepal is the 456 MW Upper Tamakoshi which is due to be connected to the grid next year.<\/p>\n

However scientists and activists say current hydropower development in the country is haphazard and poorly planned, threatening river ecosystems and destroying river-based tourism.<\/p>\n

Megh Ale\u2014the team leader of our scientific expedition \u2014 believes the main stream of the Karnali should be left free flowing, \u201cWe can bring millions of tourists here while other tributaries could be used for electricity,\u201d he said. The Karnali is a world class river for white water rafting.<\/p>\n