{"id":20034726,"date":"2020-07-07T12:45:35","date_gmt":"2020-07-07T07:15:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=34726"},"modified":"2021-05-20T01:50:20","modified_gmt":"2021-05-19T20:20:20","slug":"himalayan-dams-elatin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/himalayan-dams-elatin\/","title":{"rendered":"Himalayan dams become economic burdens: lessons for Etalin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">On April 23, 2020, the Forest Advisory Committee (FAC) of India\u2019s environment ministry met to deliberate the 3,097-megawatt Etalin hydropower project in the north-east state of <\/span><span lang=\"DE\">Arunachal Pradesh<\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">The proposed dam is a joint venture between private company Jindal Power Ltd (JPL) and the Hydro Power Development Corporation of Arunachal Pradesh Ltd, a public sector undertaking.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">The <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"http:\/\/forestsclearance.nic.in\/writereaddata\/FAC_Minutes\/51111121912211FACminutes23April20_compressed.pdf\"><span class=\"Hyperlink0\">minutes of the meeting<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> show that the FAC did not to decide whether to approve the project but sought views from the Ministry of Power (MoP) with <\/span>respect<span lang=\"EN-US\"> to three issues: the six-year delay to the project and change in the country\u2019s energy plans during this time; the high tariff structure; and prioritising proposed hydro projects based on their <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2019\/02\/15\/biodiversity-of-hindu-kush-himalayas-will-plummet-by-2100\/\"><span lang=\"EN-GB\">adverse impacts on ecology<\/span><\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">The Etalin hydropower project in Dibang Valley is one of over 160 dam projects planned in Arunachal Pradesh. It has attracted particular controversy over its impacts on wildlife and indigenous communities in the dense forests of north-east India.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Concerns about time and cost overruns are not unique to the Etalin dam. These issues are common in hydropower projects, particularly in the Himalayan states of Uttarakhand, <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"DE\">Himachal Pradesh<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">, <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"DE\">Arunachal Pradesh<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">, <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"PT\">Assam<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">, Sikkim, Jammu and Kashmir, and West Bengal. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">According to the Central Electricity Authority\u2019s (CEA) latest quarterly review (covering January-March 2020), many large hydropower projects under construction in these states have cost overruns as high as 200% and delays of up to 13 years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px;\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3027860\/embed\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%!; margin-top: 4px!important; text-align: right!important;\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px;\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/2974356\/embed\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">In reality the delays will be much greater, since they only start being recorded once the construction phase starts, ie when the project has received all relevant clearances \u2013 which can take years. The Etalin hydropower project, which is yet to receive clearances, was <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"http:\/\/forestsclearance.nic.in\/writereaddata\/UploadFormA\/10112412212141Etalin_FormA-Part-I-V.pdf\"><span class=\"Hyperlink0\">first proposed in 2008<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Questions about the economic viability of projects like Etalin are clearly on the radar of the governmental authorities that recommend them. <span class=\"Hyperlink0\">India\u2019s parliament has <a href=\"https:\/\/powermin.nic.in\/sites\/default\/files\/uploads\/RS17032020_Eng.pdf\">discussed time and cost overruns<\/a><\/span> of large hydropower projects a number of times. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">Government supports big hydro<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">No wonder then that <span class=\"None\">Bharat Rohra<\/span>, chief executive of JPL, <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloombergquint.com\/business\/jindal-to-seek-investors-for-3-3-billion-india-hydel-project\"><span class=\"Hyperlink0\">noted<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> in May that given the amount of finance the Etalin dam requires, it \u201cdoesn\u2019t look like an attractive investment\u201d and sought other investors. Rohra added that since Etalin is a large project, \u201cwe feel we\u2019ll struggle to find long-term buyers for the entire capacity but policy support from the government can make the project viable and draw investors.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Yet the Indian government is still promoting large hydropower projects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">To encourage investment, last year the government reclassified large hydropower (more than 25 MW capacity) as a renewable <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/energy\/\">energy<\/a> source, increased the debt repayment period to 18 years and agreed to pay for enabling infrastructure such as roads and bridges for some projects.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Experts saw this policy change as partly driven by the need to meet the country\u2019s United Nations commitment to install 175 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2022. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">See:<\/span><\/b><\/span> <span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2020\/06\/23\/india-ignores-climate-concerns-to-open-up-coal-mines\/\">India ignores climate concerns to open up coal mines<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">JPL has previously tried to wash its hands of the Etalin project. In February 2016, it was <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/industry\/energy\/power\/jindal-power-gmr-ask-nhpc-to-take-over-hydro-projects-or-form-jv\/articleshow\/50916084.cms?from=mdr\"><span class=\"Hyperlink0\">reported<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> that JPL asked the government-owned hydropower company NHPC to take over three of its projects. \u201cIf the project&#8217;s cost is viable then certainly NHPC is ready to take over,\u201d NHPC stated at the time. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Since NHPC has not yet taken over the project, does this mean its cost is not viable? <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/\">The Third Pole<\/a> sent queries to JPL and NHPC requesting an interview but no response had been received at the time of publication.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">Large dams become stranded assets<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Etalin is likely to become a stranded asset, like many other Himalayan hydropower projects. <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.manthan-india.org\/submission-to-the-ministry-of-power-regarding-the-financial-viability-related-issues-for-the-proposed-etalin-hydro-electric-project-ehep\/\"><span class=\"Hyperlink0\">Analysis<\/span><\/a> <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">submitted to the <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"IT\">MoP<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> on June 5, 2020 states that Etalin\u2019s tariff for the first year is likely to be INR 6.7\/kWh in an optimistic scenario and INR 8.9\/kWh in a slightly less optimistic scenario. The latter is more than double the tariff for a solar photovoltaic system including battery storage, estimated at around INR 3.94\/kWh in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px;\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3028102\/embed\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%!; margin-top: 4px!important; text-align: right!important;\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">The analysis by Ashwini Chitnis,&nbsp;an independent policy analyst, and&nbsp;research organisation <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.manthan-india.org\/about\/about-us\/\"><span class=\"Hyperlink1\">Manthan Adhyayan Kendra<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">, aimed to address queries raised by the FAC. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">\u201cThe costing for Etalin was prepared in 2011 and the tariff [as per the detailed project report, a document routinely prepared by project proponents and submitted to the CEA and other bodies] is the tariff at completion,\u201d explained Shripad Dharmadhikary, founder of Manthan Adhyayan Kendra. In essence, cost estimates were based on the assumption that <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"FR\">construction <\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">would begin in 2014 and be completed by September 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Chitnis and Dharmadhikary considered two scenarios with completion dates of 2027 and 2031 based on timelines given in the detailed project report. Dharmadhikary pointed out that completion by 2027 is wishful thinking given pre-construction activities like road building have not been completed, and even completion by 2031 would be difficult.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">See:<\/span><\/b><span lang=\"EN-US\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2019\/04\/19\/the-curse-of-hydropower\/\">The curse of hydropower?<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Addressing why costs escalate, Dharmadhikary said that project proponents lobby for high tariffs and subsidies, and that there are usually no buyers for the expensive power. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Dharmadhikary also noted that private players approach the state government to buy them out because they know the tariff will be too high to attract buyers. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/\">The Third Pole<\/a> filed a Right To Information request with the environment ministry for a list of hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh that have been scrapped over the past five years after memorandum of understandings were signed, or where private projects were later taken over by public sector undertakings including the reasons behind these decisions. The request was forwarded to the CEA and NHPC. Both said that the information was not available&nbsp;and did not confirm whether such projects have been scrapped or taken over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">White elephants <\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">In the case of the 1,200-MW Teesta III hydroelectric project, \u201cthe equity share of the Sikkim government was increased from 26% to 51% because cost escalation was about INR 90 billion [USD 1.9 billion] and no one was ready to fund it unless more equity was brought in\u201d, <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"DE\">Chitnis <\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Most hydropower projects run on a 70-30 debt-equity share, meaning that 70% of the cost is financed by debt and the remaining 30% is brought in by the project developers. But with the Teesta III dam, this ratio was changed to cover risks such as cost escalations so that \u201ca small state like Sikkim was made to borrow money\u201d, Chitnis noted. \u201cIt\u2019s ridiculous\u2026 if you have to take a loan to put in more equity to make a project viable, it means that the project is not viable.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">See:<\/span><\/b><span lang=\"EN-US\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2018\/03\/29\/hydropower-in-the-himalayas-the-economics-that-are-often-ignored\/\">Hydropower in the Himalayas: the economics that are often ignored<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">For Etalin, the Arunachal government has a 26% equity share through Hydro Power Development Corporation of Arunachal Pradesh Ltd. \u201cThe government will very likely have to borrow money to fund this,\u201d Chitnis said. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">When the Teesta III project was finally commissioned in 2017 after a five year-delay, other problems arose. \u201cBuyer states like Punjab and Rajasthan refused to purchase power because the tariff was too high,\u201d Chitnis explained. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">The same situation applies to Etalin, she added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">Geological hazards <\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Many hydropower projects under construction in India <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"><a href=\"https:\/\/powermin.nic.in\/sites\/default\/files\/uploads\/RS17032020_Eng.pdf\"><span class=\"Hyperlink0\">are in Himalayan states<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">. Experts say the geology and geography of the region make such projects inherently risky. This is a major reason why 80% of the projects with time and cost overruns in the CEA\u2019s quarterly report are in these states.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px;\" src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/3029329\/embed\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 100%!; margin-top: 4px!important; text-align: right!important;\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">\u201cThe Himalayas are one of the youngest mountain systems in the world, and are still rising because the Indian plate is still pushing against the Eurasian plate,\u201d said Jagdish Krishnaswamy, a senior fellow at the Suri Sehgal Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation, part of the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment. Krishnaswamy is also a coordinating lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s special report on climate change and land.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">The risks of constructing and operating large hydro projects in the Himalayan region are \u201cvery well known\u201d because landslides and geological instability due to tectonic activity are well documented, Krishnaswamy explained.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">In the CEA quarterly report, common reasons for time and cost overruns are \u201cpoor geology\u201d, \u201cheavy monsoon\u201d, \u201cfund constraints due to increase in project cost\u201d, \u201cdifficult areas\u201d, \u201cweather conditions and accessibility\u201d and \u201cflash floods\u201d. \u201cThis is not surprising,\u201d Krishnaswamy said, adding that these risks are severely underplayed during technical assessments for environmental clearances to ensure that the cost-benefit ratio looks feasible. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">Growing risks<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Krishnaswamy also said that risks from heavy, erratic rainfall driven by climate change are not adequately accounted for in environmental risk assessments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Another important issue is that hydropower dams in the western Himalayas, like those in Uttarakhand and some parts of Himachal Pradesh, fall within the Ganga river basin. \u201cIf the government is committed to the health of the Ganga, then it should also bear in mind that these Himalayan projects affect this river system,\u201d Krishnaswamy said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">See:<\/span><\/b><span lang=\"EN-US\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2020\/07\/02\/himalayan-rivers-must-be-lynchpin-of-indias-new-water-policy\/\">Opinion &#8211; Himalayan rivers must be lynchpin of India\u2019s new water policy<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Other rivers in the western Himalayas, such as the Beas and Sutlej in Himachal Pradesh and Chenab in <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2018\/07\/30\/opinion-focus-on-small-hydropower-in-jammu-kashmir\/\">Jammu and Kashmir<\/a>, are part of the Indus basin. Together, the Ganga and Indus basins support about 600 million people.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span class=\"None\"><b><span lang=\"EN-US\">Developers blame protesters<\/span><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">As well as affecting rivers, <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2019\/02\/07\/in-the-himalayas-women-are-left-behind-in-the-changing-climate\/\">communities<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2019\/02\/15\/biodiversity-of-hindu-kush-himalayas-will-plummet-by-2100\/\">fragile mountains<\/a>, poor environmental risk assessments result in substantial delays and cost escalations. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">A good example of this is the 2,000-MW Lower Subansiri hydroelectric project under construction on the border between Assam and <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"NL\">Arunachal Pradesh<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">. &nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Work on the project was stopped from December 2011 to September 2019 due to \u201cserious concerns about dam safety and downstream impacts\u201d, said Neeraj Vagholikar of environmental NGO<\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/kalpavriksh.org\/\"><span class=\"Hyperlink1\">Kalpavriksh<\/span><\/a><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">But, <\/span><span class=\"None\"><span lang=\"SV\">Vagholikar<\/span><\/span><span lang=\"SV\"> added, <\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\">\u201cthe public narrative that is being peddled right now by the dam developers is that it is only due to protests by affected communities that the project got delayed.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">In the CEA report, the reason cited in bold for time and cost overruns at the Lower Subansiri project is \u201cagitation launched by anti-dam activists in Assam against construction of the project\u201d.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">\u201cThe project is a white elephant,\u201d Vagholikar said. He said that well before work was stopped due to locals\u2019 concerns, a major landslide occurred at the powerhouse site, leading to delays and a change of design.&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">Protest by local groups and communities on the downstream impacts of the dam led to an independent review by an expert committee in Assam, which recommended that the dam was not appropriate in this location. Over the next few years, additional reviews were done by committees set up by the central government.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\"><span lang=\"EN-US\">While the central government overruled the Assam expert committe\u2019s safety concerns in 2019, \u201cmassive changes\u201d were made to the dam design to make it \u201crelatively safer\u201d, Vagholikar said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"BodyA\">\u201cTime and money lost due to detection of an unsafe dam design and technical reviews undertaken to change the design cannot be blamed on local protests,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spiralling costs, long delays, earthquakes and landslide risks plague developers trying to build hydropower projects in the Indian Himalayan states<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20000286,"featured_media":20037498,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[50040314,554,580,585],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000111],"class_list":["post-20034726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-dams","tag-hydropower","tag-policy","tag-renewables","country-india"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Himalayan dams become economic burdens: lessons for Etalin | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Spiralling costs, long delays, earthquakes and landslide risks plague developers trying to build hydropower projects in the Indian Himalayan states\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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