{"id":20035690,"date":"2020-07-21T10:00:21","date_gmt":"2020-07-21T04:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=35690"},"modified":"2021-01-29T18:11:27","modified_gmt":"2021-01-29T12:41:27","slug":"can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/","title":{"rendered":"Can the Himalayan region go green as economies flounder?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The countries of the Hindu Kush Himalayan<\/span><\/a> region were experiencing a spurt of decent growth over the last few years \u2013 until the Covid-19 pandemic hit. Last year, the Asian Development Bank had predicted<\/span><\/a> that continued annual growth of 7% on average will double the size of south Asian economies in the next 10 years. But now that is all in the past. Among the HKH countries, Afghanistan (-5.5%), India (-3.2%) and Pakistan (-2.6%) are expected to have negative GDP growth in 2020, while others are projected to have very small positive GDP growth, ranging from 1.0% in China to 1.8% in Nepal.<\/span><\/p>\n

The pandemic has not only slowed down economic growth, it has caused unprecedented social disruptions \u2013 especially for the poor and marginalised \u2013 that are likely to deepen inequality gaps. An analysis report<\/span><\/a> released by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD<\/span><\/a>), a regional intergovernmental organisation based in Kathmandu, has urged governments in the region to keep environmental sustainability as a central tenet in all recovery pathways and long term response to the virus.<\/span><\/p>\n

See: <\/b>Himalayan women left more vulnerable amid pandemic<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe will get a vaccine for Covid-19 sooner or later but climate change doesn\u2019t have that luxury. So, [the] response trajectory of the pandemic should have emphasis on ecosystem health along with individual health which would help to foster better future of the region as a whole,\u201d said Eklabya Sharma, Deputy Director General at ICIMOD.<\/span><\/p>\n

The HKH region has been heating up faster than most of the rest of the world because of elevation dependent warming. Over the past six decades, the mean temperature in the HKH has increased at a rate of 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade. A 1.5 C increase in global temperature would result in a 2.1 C degree increase in temperature by the end of the century.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lowered human activity due to lockdowns has led to some relief for ecosystems, but even these come with a catch. \u201cAbove average snow accumulation of ~20% has been observed in the ten major river basins compared to the 2003-2019 average. The snowmelt slowdown due to reduced anthropogenic activities during the lockdown could lead to excessive melting in summer which may exacerbate flood-like disasters,\u201d reads ICIMOD\u2019s report<\/span><\/a>. <\/span><\/p>\n

It has been projected that global carbon dioxide emissions will decline by 8% in 2020 due to lockdowns but past experience shows that there are rapid upsurges in the following years after an economic crisis (CO2 emissions grew by 5.9% after the 2008-2009 financial crisis). \u201cSuch emission peaks are of concern, especially when larger economies like China have increased their oil imports by 5% due to the fall in global prices,\u201d added Sharma.<\/span><\/p>\n

The region is likely to have low inflation in 2020 due to lower global oil prices. Oil imports account for large external expenses for the countries of the region. According to the report except Pakistan (11.1%), all other HKH countries are expected to have a low level of inflation (3.0% in China to 6.7% in Nepal) in 2020, which is comparable to 2019 inflation rates. \u201cIn the short-term, reduced oil prices would bring down the production costs but if that becomes an incentive for the industries more and more dirty fuel would be consumed putting climate action into risk which is of serious concern for the mountains. So, investments in renewable energy should be a priority to keep climate actions on track,\u201d Sharma said.<\/span><\/p>\n

In addition, the poverty consequences of the pandemic will also necessarily make clean fuel such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity less affordable for households. \u201cTo meet energy needs, poor people may use more biomass fuels, subsequently increasing their exposure to indoor air pollution,\u201d the report added.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is predicted that over half of the additional poor due to pandemic will be in South Asia, many in the mountainous regions, which are generally poorer than the rest. A recent study by UNU-WIDER<\/span><\/a> estimated contraction rates at 5%, 10% and 20%, at poverty being measured at USD 1.9 per day, USD 3.2 per day, and USD 5.5 per day. South Asia would account for 48.1% to 52.5% of the new poor in this scenario.<\/span><\/p>\n

The numbers are not small. A 5% contraction would lead to 80-140 million new poor across the world (depending on the poverty line of USD 1.9, 3.2, or 5.5). A 10% contraction would mean 180-280 million new poor, and a 20% contraction would mean 420-580 million new poor. <\/span><\/p>\n

While the study has important limitations, even as educated guesses such numbers are scary, reversing a decade of growth.   <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Progressive recommendations, regressive actions<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

The HKH supports 240 million people, and its wider ecosystem services \u2013 primarily rivers from the region \u2013 support nearly two billion people. The pandemic\u2019s economic impacts are yet to be fully revealed in the region but according to the World Bank\u2019s forecasts HKH countries will experience the worst economic performance of the last 40 years with considerable decline in GDP. \u201cThe governments should take this crisis as an opportunity to rebuild toward a green economy, to strengthen agribusiness for input and marketing support, and to build entrepreneurship around farming, forestry, energy and tourism,\u201d added Sharma.<\/span><\/p>\n

See: <\/b>Opinion: India must go green or perish<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, while the governments are responding to the crisis in several different ways, environmental sustainability has been of less concern. \u201cThe pandemic has shown how badly prepared the region is, not only in terms of public health but also in economic management. The region faces a multitude of crises, so we need to consider an integrated resilience building approach; you cannot just work for flood and forget earthquake or pandemic. This sort of integrated thinking is lacking in policy responses,\u201d said Hemanta Ojha, Adjunct Associate Professor at University of Canberra in Australia, a noted policy expert on socio-environmental issues in the region.<\/span><\/p>\n

See: <\/b>Bhutan uses Covid-19 crisis to boost agriculture<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, several governments have been rushing to bring back the economy on track by loosening up environmental procedures for infrastructure development, opening up new schemes for dirty energy. Recently India\u2019s coal ministry launched<\/span><\/a> its first auction to private companies to mine and sell coal which would allow 41 new coal mines. This has been seen as a regressive move. The coal ministry estimates the new mines will employ about 70,000 people and earn extra annual revenue for various provinces to the tune of INR 200 billion (USD 2.6 billion). Experts say Pakistan\u2019s economic stimulus package of PKR 1.2 trillion has also let the green recovery fall behind. \u201cIt offers an important and immediate reprieve in these times but will have very limited utility in putting the economy on track for inclusive and sustainable development. They will hardly help us \u2018build back fast\u2019, let alone \u2018build back better\u2019. Pakistan\u2019s stimulus packages need to suit a sluggish economy that is constantly under siege from climate change-induced disasters,\u201d wrote<\/span><\/a> Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, an Islamabad based expert on climate change and development.<\/span><\/p>\n

See: <\/b>Opinion: Pakistan\u2019s \u2018Green Stimulus\u2019 to combat Covid-19, protect nature<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

But Sharma sees silver linings and reiterates cooperation and collaboration as a key to post pandemic recovery for the mountains. \u201cThe governments must take this as a transition to organic farming in the Himalayas, develop and implement large mountain specific economic and resilient development programmes to build self-reliant economies and promote local food systems. They need to emphasise community-based tourism activities, reduce gender inequality, bring in programmes for revival of mountain-native livestock and neglected and under-utilised crops by providing support price for farmers,\u201d he added. \u201cThese aren\u2019t impossible things to do but it\u2019s not going to happen in a day or a year. It should be a long-term post Covid-19 trajectory and I don\u2019t think there is an option.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

However, many experts see these as a wish list that looks good but nearly impossible to implement as the region has its own socio-political and geological complexity. \u201cArticulating new concepts is okay but the complex politics that underpin any policy shift is intractable in South Asia. It\u2019s unlikely that Covid-19 will push the countries towards green recovery pathways but if they do that would be great,\u201d added Ojha.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The pandemic has hit the economies of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region particularly hard, but will it be back to carbon intensive growth, or is this a chance for countries to go green?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20000200,"featured_media":20037901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[20000022,20000237],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000115,20000110,20000111,20000113,20000112],"class_list":["post-20035690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-himalayas","tag-sustainable-development","country-afghanistan","country-china","country-india","country-nepal","country-pakistan"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan the Himalayan region go green as economies flounder? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The pandemic has hit the economies of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region particularly hard, but will it be back to carbon intensive growth, or is this a chance for countries to go green?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can the Himalayan region go green as economies flounder?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The pandemic has hit the economies of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region particularly hard, but will it be back to carbon intensive growth, or is this a chance for countries to go green?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-07-21T04:30:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-01-29T12:41:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/glacier-in-the-Pir-Panjal.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ramesh Bhushal\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@RameshBhushal\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ramesh Bhushal\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/3e78417e6352788bd42af871c90b3bfd\"},\"headline\":\"Can the Himalayan region go green as economies flounder?\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-07-21T04:30:21+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-01-29T12:41:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/\"},\"wordCount\":1332,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/glacier-in-the-Pir-Panjal.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Himalayas\",\"Sustainable development\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Climate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/can-the-himalayan-region-go-green-as-economies-flounder\/\",\"name\":\"Can the Himalayan region go green as economies flounder? 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