{"id":20037875,"date":"2020-09-10T12:30:49","date_gmt":"2020-09-10T07:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=37875"},"modified":"2021-05-20T13:32:33","modified_gmt":"2021-05-20T08:02:33","slug":"studies-show-rise-in-extreme-rain-and-flash-floods-in-himalayas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/studies-show-rise-in-extreme-rain-and-flash-floods-in-himalayas\/","title":{"rendered":"Extreme rainfall events have more than doubled in Himalayas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The horror of June 2013 is etched in Rajendra Singh Negi\u2019s mind. On June 12, he travelled a few kilometres from his village to the town of Rudraprayag in Uttarakhand on some work.<\/p>\n<p>Heavy, incessant rainfall started the next day and water levels rose alarmingly in the Garhwal Himalayas at the confluence of the Alaknanda and Mandakini rivers, headwaters of the Ganga.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOn the morning of June 17 around 7.30 am, I saw a wall of water more than 20 feet high rush down the Mandakini,\u201d Negi remembered. \u201cIt looked like the end of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Days of extreme rainfall had dumped billions of litres of water over the western Himalayan region. Between June 13 and 19, the mountain state of Uttarakhand received excess rainfall of nearly 850%. As a result of the unprecedented deluge, more than 6,000 people died in northern India and parts of Nepal, and <a href=\"https:\/\/nidm.gov.in\/pdf\/pubs\/ukd-p1.pdf\">property worth billions was damaged<\/a>, India\u2019s National Institute of Disaster Management estimated.<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_37881\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-37881\" style=\"width: 887px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-37881 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Vishnuprayag_hydroelectric_project_Uttarakhand_Ganga_Matu_Jansangthan.jpg\" alt=\"Vishnuprayag Hydroelectric Project, Ganga Matu Jansangthan\" width=\"887\" height=\"485\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-37881\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In 2013, water surged over the 55 foot-high Vishnuprayag Hydroelectric Project in Uttarakhand [Image by: Ganga Matu Jansangthan]<\/figcaption><\/figure>On June 17 alone, Uttarakhand received 340 millimetres of rainfall \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2212094714000206\">375% more than the normal daily rainfall<\/a> during the southwest monsoon that occurs between June and September. The western Himalayas are no stranger to cloudbursts \u2013 sudden, very heavy downpours \u2013 but such extreme rainfall over large areas was rare even 50 years ago.<\/p>\n<p>Rainfall patterns in the Indian sub-continent are changing, partly due to climate change. The chance of extreme precipitation has increased significantly in the past few decades, recent research shows.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Increase in extreme rainfall<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the <a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1029\/2020GL087815\">first scientific analysis<\/a> of observed data, a team of researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay (IITB) and National Institute of Hydrology (NIH) found that between 1980-91 and 1992-2003, extreme rainfall events in the Sutlej river basin in Himachal Pradesh and the Ganga headwaters in Uttarakhand have more than doubled.<\/p>\n<p>The deluges were inevitably followed by \u201cextreme streamflow\u201d and flooding in the foothills and plains, said the study, which was published in July.<\/p>\n<p>In another <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-020-63571-x\">study<\/a> at the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur (IITK), hydrologists found that there has been a significant increase in extreme rainfall over south India and the Himalayas during the southwest monsoon.<\/p>\n<p>Rainfall extremes are increasing \u201calmost everywhere, with maximum increase in the Western Ghats [a mountain range in southwest India],\u201d said Rajib Maity, an associate professor at IITK and co-author of the study, which was published in April. \u201cThe Himalayan foothills also distinctly exhibit an increase.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe expect floods, particularly flash floods, will increase in the future if short-duration spells of extreme rainfall increase,\u201d Maity said.<\/p>\n<p>The IITB-NIH study correlated data from six river gauges \u2013 two on the Sutlej river at Suni and Rampur, and four on the upper Ganga at Mandakini, Alaknanda, Uttarkashi and Devprayag \u2013 with observed rainfall data.<\/p>\n<p>The study found that \u201cextreme flow events\u201d have \u201cdoubled with an increasing trend in annual maximum streamflow\u201d. The analysis showed that this streamflow change was due to increased precipitation extremes during both the summer monsoon and the winter.<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_14675\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-14675\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-14675\" src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2015\/04\/9081906642_74e97bf92e_z.jpg\" alt=\"Uttarakhand monsoon flood 2015\" width=\"640\" height=\"455\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-14675\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Flash floods have become increasingly common in the western Himalayas [image by:AFP\/Indian Army]<\/figcaption><\/figure>Such studies are rare because India closely guards data on water flow in transboundary river basins such as the Indus and Ganga, citing national security concerns.<\/p>\n<p>Subimal Ghosh, a professor at IITB and co-author of the study, said the trend continued beyond the study period of 1980-2003. He pointed to five catastrophic floods between 2010 and 2019: 2010 in Pakistan, 2013 in Uttarakhand, 2014 in Kashmir, 2017 in Nepal and 2019 again in Kashmir.<\/p>\n<p>The IITK study estimates that by 2100, rainfall in south India and the western Himalayan foothills could increase by as much as 16.5 millimetres per day on average.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Floods can be mitigated <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cScientific research is now validating what we have been seeing in the past few decades,\u201d said Somnath Bandyopadhyay, associate professor at the School of Ecology and Environment Studies at Nalanda University. \u201cWe will have to brace ourselves for more such events of sudden river flooding in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Maity said that since increased extreme rainfall cannot be avoided, \u201cwe need to adopt flood mitigation strategies\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>In 2013, there was no warning of the deluge in Rudraprayag, Negi said. \u201cMany lives could have been saved if the people knew what was coming,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>To avoid future damage, Maity recommended both structural and non-structural measures. \u201cStructural measures include the construction of dams and river dikes, flood-control reservoirs, stormwater detention basin, flood ways, channelisation including deepening, widening and improving conveyance capacity, bank protection,\u201d he said. \u201cNon-structural measures include flood forecasting and warning, floodplain management, flood insurance.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ghosh said it is possible and necessary to design early warning systems for extreme rainfall and flooding in the Himalayas. \u201cIndia has taken huge strides in weather forecasting in recent years. Our early warning system for cyclones, for instance, has minimised loss of lives among coastal communities,\u201d Ghosh said. \u201cIt is time we set up an early warning system for the Himalayas as well.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>A flood forecasting system in the western Himalayas would benefit more than 17 million people. It would also prepare the ground for better ecosystem services to mitigate increasing flood hazards.<\/p>\n<p><strong>See:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2020\/09\/07\/guwahati-gets-an-experimental-flood-warning-system\/\">Guwahati gets an experimental flood warning system<\/a><\/p>\n<p>While a technological fix through real-time forecasting is well within reach, managing and mitigating the impact of the floods is a more complicated. \u201cOur main problem is to view floods as a problem,\u201d said Bandyopadhyay. \u201cThese are natural phenomenon that human populations have to learn to live with.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Managing the surge<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Overflowing rivers need to be able to absorb the surge in water. \u201cIn mountainous regions, the floodwater does not have space to spread. It will overflow banks and rush down at great speed. The heavy rains also cause landslides in areas with steep slopes,\u201d said Ghosh. \u201cIn such a scenario, care must be taken where we build.\u201d Imprudent construction will get washed away or be smothered under landslides, causing recurring losses.<\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_37880\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-37880\" style=\"width: 768px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-37880\" src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Landslide_flood_Himalayas_AFP_IndianArmy.jpg\" alt=\"Landslide, Himalayas, AFP\/Indian Army\" width=\"768\" height=\"456\"><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-37880\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The impact of floods in the western Himalayas is compounded by the hazard of landslides [image by: AFP\/Indian Army]<\/figcaption><\/figure>In the foothills and plains, there has to be space where the water can spread and be quickly absorbed into underground aquifers, Bandyopadhyay said. \u201cUnless we stop encroaching on the floodplains, stop building constricting embankments and stop building over wetland ecosystems along rivers, how can we mitigate the impacts of floods?\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>See: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/2017\/02\/13\/mismanaged-urbanisation-and-the-destruction-of-indian-wetlands\/\">Mismanaged urbanisation and the destruction of Indian wetlands<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Policy action will have to be directed at reducing the economic value of such activities through levies, taxes and penalties so that river basins are not further hemmed in and degraded, experts said.<\/p>\n<p>Lived experience and scientific analysis now show that there will be many more incidents of extreme rainfall and river flooding in the Himalayas. How we adjust to these changed circumstances remains to be seen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New studies show the chance of sudden, catastrophic river flooding in the western Himalayas has doubled as climate change leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20000286,"featured_media":20037879,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,50039903],"tags":[17827,519,543,20000022,50040707],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000111,20000113],"class_list":["post-20037875","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-water","tag-climate-adaptation","tag-climate-impacts","tag-extreme-weather","tag-himalayas","tag-the-third-pole","country-india","country-nepal"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast 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