Editor\u2019s note:<\/p>
The fate of the CKU is reflective of a host of issues that China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative faces as it tries to expand trade and travel infrastructure. The challenges it faces may also provide lessons for\u00a0Nepal\u2019s dreams of a rail link<\/a>\u00a0from China, running through Nepal, to connect to India.<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n In his resignation speech on 16 October 2020, the then Kyrgyz President, Sooronbay Jeenbekov, shared his dream for the railway. \u201cOne of my dreams was the realisation of the CKU railway. High-level negotiations took place, and a political decision was taken regarding the start of the work. Kyrgyzstan needs this like it needs air and water, and I hope that my countrymen who have come to power will continue with it and make it a reality\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The three countries have conflicting interests. China and Uzbekistan want a shorter and cheaper transit route to Europe and the Middle East, whereas Kyrgyzstan prefers a longer variant that will connect centres in the north and south of the country and boost its economy. The train is expected to carry consumer goods from China to Central Asia and take food produce and minerals from Kyrgyzstan back to China. Uzbekistan hopes to boost its oil and cotton exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At a meeting about the development of the Kyrgyz rail industry in June 2020, the then President Jeenbekov noted the importance of railways for the country, the largest and most strategically important projects in this regard is the CKU<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The next day, general director of the Kyrgyz Railway Company, Vasily Dashkov, hastened to inform journalists that documents relating to the construction of the CKU were ready and denied there was any disagreement over the route and the track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In an interview with \u201cBirinchi Radio\u201d, Jeenbekov called the construction<\/a> of the route vitally important, and added that a 3+1 agreement was reached with Russia for participation in the project. \u201cWhen the pandemic began and borders were closed, we found ourselves in a very bad situation. Our priorities weren\u2019t only the economy, but the issue of providing food and flour to people. We were again convinced that the railway is very important for us. The Chinese are interested in this project.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n In an interview<\/a> with MK-Asia, former Kyrgyz deputy Minister of Transport and Communication Ulan Uezbaev underlined that although there has been a political decision to build the railroad, as of yet no viable approach has been suggested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThere\u2019s no investment or decision about a partnership between the government and private sector. After a feasibility study, the first variant of the railroad cost USD 1.5 billion \u2013 during discussions this sum rose to USD 4.5 billion, a figure which will continue to grow in the coming 5 years of discussion until it reaches around USD 8 billion. Construction on this project must begin now.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the Kyrgyz Railway Company (Kyrgyz Temir Zholy), the idea of the CKU railroad first appeared in 1996 when China announced the start of construction of a South Xinjiang rail route from Korla to Kashgar. A year later, China, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan signed a memorandum in Tashkent and Bishkek to cooperate on the construction of a Kashgar\u2013Osh\u2013Andijan railroad, and published the minutes of the first meeting of the Joint Working Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Initially, experts from the three countries researched eight options for the route, but eventually settled on two. A northern route from Kashgar to Andijan would go through Torugart, Arpu and Kara-Suu, and a southern route would go through Irkeshtam, Sary-Tash and Osh. In 2002, the Chinese government gave Kyrgyzstan a 20-million-yuan technical grant for research on the main line, after which the two sides agreed on the northern route, though the southern option was more beneficial for China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The northern route is 270 kilometres long and will link the northern and southern railways of Kyrgyzstan via an internal route of Balikchi \u2013 Kochkor \u2013 Kara-Keche \u2013 Arpa \u2013 Kara Suu. This will allow Kyrgyzstan to provide an inter-regional rail system. However, the Chinese government representatives rejected the Kyrgyz proposal during an online meeting on 15 July 2020 indicating<\/a> that the railway width and route must be agreed by all sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Whether the Kyrgyz government\u2019s call for the northern route will materialise is unclear but it has come under criticism from some Uzbek experts. Bakhtiyor Ergashev, director of the Tashkent based think-tank \u201cMano\u201d believes that the Kyrgyz authorities are focusing on purely \u201cselfish interests\u201d by proposing the northern route. \u201cThe option that they [Kyrgyz government] offer is simply longer and more expensive and does not work for the idea of \u200b\u200ba fast and affordable railway construction,\u201d Ergashev told<\/a> a news website in Kazakhstan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Preliminary data from feasibility studies show that construction will take place in mountainous areas. This will involve building 48 tunnels over almost 50 kilometres. This includes a Ferghana Tunnel (14.1 kilometres), a Torugart tunnel (3.4 kilometres) and a Kurshab tunnel (1.7 kilometres). Large engineering structures such as bridges, railway divisions and transfer stations will also have to be built.<\/p>\n\n\n\n There are also technical problems linking the new railway with existing regional rail routes. An official from the Kyrgyz Ministry of Transport and Communication told The Third Pole<\/a> on condition of anonymity that \u201cthe width of the track gauges is different in Kyrgyzstan and China. So in the Tuz-Bel Pass in Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan insists on building a station where carriages will change tracks, and there\u2019ll be cargo weighing, organisation of the trains and sorting of the containers\u201d. This will add both time and cost to transporting goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In his opinion, it would be better to build a station on Uzbek territory so that they can deliver goods there directly, by passing the need for a transition station. \u201cBut this doesn\u2019t suit the Kyrgyz side. Even if the Chinese side will compromise, then their government, considering that they\u2019re ready to invest billions in this ambitious project, will want to claim mining rights as a form of collateral\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kyrgyzstan is rich in mineral deposits, in particular gold, which China wants to exploit. More than ten years ago the Kyrgyz government offered to pay China for building the railroad with rights for gold mining, the official said. It is unclear if that offer still holds, but the former Kyrgyz Minister of Transportation Janat Beishenov told<\/a> a local newspaper in Kyrgyzstan that there are 23 mineral deposits, including: coal, lignite, gold, aluminum, iron, gypsum, barite, lead, terandite, shell limestone, construction limestone and other can be respectively developed along the railway route if CKU project moves forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Experts worry about the environmental damage of building a railway through fragile mountain regions. Kyrgyz Prime Minister\u2019s advisor and economist Kubat Rahimov said that \u201cany infrastructure project will need additional measures relating to explosive-technical and drilling operations requiring hundreds of thousands or even millions or cubic metres of rocks to be moved, as well as building tunnels, bridges, railway stations, loading and unloading stations, and all kinds of junctions, bypasses and additional tracks.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The CKU railroad project is particularly difficult, said Kubat Rahimov, because it will require building tunnels through mountainous areas. Regardless of the route, the environmental consequences will be significant, as in certain areas it will be necessary to change the course of rivers and change drainage patterns, because we will need to build bridges with columns and engineering structures which will be directly on the water surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cExperience demonstrates that the building of a mountainous railroad in Tibet required changing the course of local rivers and putting concrete pillars in areas where water once flowed. This inevitably affected flora and fauna. The seismicity of the territory also affects the project\u2013 introducing the necessity for load-bearing steel-concrete structures, additional engineering measures, additional concrete works, the strengthening or filling of cracks and joints, all of which will affect rocks. In certain areas dams will need to be built to join two mountains that are separated by a narrow gorge or river. This negatively affects seismicity: if the railroad goes through in an area with tectonic faults or where there\u2019s a likelihood of landslide or rockfall. The technogenic activity will have a negative impact in any case.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n An expert in the field of environmental protection and climate change from Bishkek, Vladimir Grebnev, warned the environmental costs of the project are likely high. \u201cBut this shouldn\u2019t be said without any proof. As international legislation states, there must be an EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment) with the involvement of society and appropriate consultants,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, there is weak enforcement of environmental protections around infrastructure and mining major projects in Kyrgyzstan. The development of the Kumtor gold mine \u2013 one of the highest gold deposits in the world in the Issyk-Kul region \u2013 has led to the melting of the Davydov glacier in the Tianshan mountains. Mining waste was not properly stored, resulting in melting snow and polluted lakes and rivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"china](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/20210112_China-Uzbekistan-Railway_Mapboard.svg\")
<\/div>Conflicting interests<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
A dead end?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Old](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/2AH33XN.jpg\")
<\/div>Impasse over routes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Tashkent](\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/H6BP0C.jpg\")
<\/div>Technical challenges<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Mining the price<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Environmental impacts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n