{"id":20075782,"date":"2021-07-13T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-07-13T07:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=75782"},"modified":"2021-07-13T20:24:19","modified_gmt":"2021-07-13T14:54:19","slug":"asiatic-black-bears-habitat-to-shrink-by-area-size-of-belgium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/nature\/asiatic-black-bears-habitat-to-shrink-by-area-size-of-belgium\/","title":{"rendered":"Asiatic black bear habitat to shrink by area the size of Belgium"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Once, the Asiatic black bear ranged as far west as Germany and France<\/a>. Native to the hill forests of Asia, the bear\u2019s range currently extends from Iran, through the Hindu Kush Himalayas, to Japan and the Russian Far East. But by 2100, researchers say, climate change will further change the distribution of the species.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Asiatic black bear is also known as the \u2018moon bear\u2019, a reference to the white crescent-shaped mark on its chest. Listed as a vulnerable species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), this medium-sized bear is threatened<\/a> by habitat loss and poaching.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As temperatures warm, forests start to grow at different altitudes. The bears depend on forest vegetation for food, which means the location of suitable habitat will change. This, along with land development, agriculture and deforestation could result in habitat fragmentation, forcing the bear into isolated subpopulations and making them vulnerable to population decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a new study<\/a> published this month, a team of researchers from Australia, China and the US modelled the impact of climate change on the range of the Asiatic black bear in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), an area of 4.19 million square kilometres across Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan. The researchers used two climate scenarios in the study: a worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) and a \u2018likely\u2019 scenario (RCP 4.5).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Explained: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5<\/span>

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5:<\/strong> Global emissions of climate-warming gases start to decline around 2045, with a projected increase in temperature of 2 degrees Celsius by 2100<\/p>

RCP 8.5:<\/strong> Global emissions continue throughout the 21st century, with a projected increase in temperature of over 3C by 2100<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The authors modelled the suitability of current and future habitat for Asiatic black bears using 561 records of the bear\u2019s presence, 19 climatic variables (such as annual temperature range and precipitation seasonality) and five non-climatic variables (such as elevation, human influence index and land-use change).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There was an overall predicted reduction in suitable habitat across the eight countries studied,\u00a0from 487,036 square kilometres currently to 458,060 sq km under the RCP 4.5 scenario \u2013\u00a0a loss of nearly 30,000 sq km. Even in areas where suitable habitat is projected to increase, habitat fragmentation and human-bear conflict could threaten populations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model found the largest amount of current suitable habitat to be in China, followed by India, Nepal and Myanmar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n