\u201cOnce the highway becomes a motorway, trucking supplies to Afghanistan will become much faster,\u201d said Shakir Afridi, president of the transport union for Khyber district, in northwest Pakistan\u2019s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Afridi had recently heard that a motorway is to be built between Peshawar and Kabul, going on to Uzbekistan, as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). \u201cIt will be good for our business if we can go all the way up to Uzbekistan,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
CPEC started in 2013 as a USD 47 billion bilateral agreement between China and Pakistan to build transport networks, energy projects and special economic zones, financed by China. It has grown to an estimated<\/a> USD 62 billion. Now, China wants CPEC to be extended to Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This was confirmed by Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan\u2019s federal minister for planning, development and special initiatives, in an exclusive phone interview to The Third Pole. \u201cThis will provide Pakistan a unique opportunity to leverage its geo-location for regional connectivity,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Afridi\u2019s trucks are among the estimated \u201c3,500 heavy-duty vehicles travelling on Pakistan\u2019s highways and motorways, carrying anything from crockery, garments, cloth, cigarettes and packaged juices from ports in Karachi and Gwadar all the way to Jalalabad [Afghanistan\u2019s fifth-largest city] in four days,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sophia Nina Burna-Asefi, research associate in the Russia, Eastern Europe and Eurasia team at the consultancy Risk Advisory Group<\/a>, said the road extension would likely go through the \u201cWakhan Corridor touching China in the northeast; Pakistan in the south and Tajikistan in the north\u201d, thereby providing Pakistan \u201cthe shortest route to Central Asia through Afghanistan\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOnce in Pakistan, the goods will be offloaded to connect with the Pakistan rail system<\/a> and from there will eventually travel down to the Pakistani seaports of Karachi, Gwadar and Qasim,\u201d she told The Third Pole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of the three ports, \u201cGwadar<\/a> will be the shortest and most natural route for trade\u201d, said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, a senator in the Pakistani parliament and founder of the Pakistan-China Institute<\/a>, a thinktank that promotes bilateral relations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Zakir Jalali, director-general at the Third Political Department, part of Afghanistan\u2019s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke to The Third Pole in August. He had just returned from Tashkent in Uzbekistan, where he had been discussing connectivity issues with officials from Uzbekistan and Pakistan. Beside roads, he said, \u201ca railway line will be constructed from Termez in Uzbekistan to Mazar-e-Sharif via Kabul in Afghanistan, to Peshawar in Pakistan. The field survey for the railways has already begun in Uzbekistan.\u201d The 573-kilometre track<\/a> was first proposed in 2018 by Uzbekistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cCPEC is an opportunity for Uzbekistan, which is landlocked, to expand to non-traditional markets and diversify its supply routes,\u201d said Burna-Asefi. From the new deep sea port of Gwadar, Uzbek goods could be transported anywhere in the world. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Sayed, the senator, said that as well as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have shown interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n This regional connectivity would also fulfil the aim of China\u2019s Belt and Road<\/a> project of \u201cintegrating new markets across the length and breadth of the region, through rail and road connectivity,\u201d said Iqbal, the minister. He added that it would promote economic development for \u201cclose to three billion people in Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the Central Asian republics\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cPakistan hopes to reorient its foreign policy toward a more geoeconomics-focused end goal, and that entails more trade links and connectivity with Afghanistan and Central Asia,\u201d said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, and a leading specialist on Afghanistan. \u201cLaying down more infrastructure in Afghanistan would help in this goal,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Along with an Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan rail link, Afghan minister Jalali said, \u201cRussia, too, is interested in being part of a five-country rail link between Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n USD 5 billion <\/p> Estimated cost of the Trans-Afghan Railway<\/p><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n Over the past year, Moscow has been making diplomatic and political overtures<\/a> to improve ties with the Taliban regime and increase its leverage in Afghanistan. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Beijing\u2019s relations with Moscow have become stronger and the former may want new collaborations with Russia in Central Asia, said Kugelman. \u201cThis is easier to envision with new Chinese infrastructure projects in neighbouring Afghanistan,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n At the same time, he said, Pakistan is keen to pre-empt India\u2019s own inroads<\/a> into Central Asia. \u201cNew Delhi also seeks to ramp up relations with the region, and its recent decision to reopen its embassy in Kabul is an indication of its desire to facilitate access to Central Asia,\u201d said Kugelman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For Afghanistan, for now, Jalali said he hoped that \u201cinfrastructure development will open enormous livelihood avenues for our people\u201d. Afghanistan has good relations<\/a> with China, and is hesitantly mending fences<\/a> with Pakistan. Jalali said the country is ready to welcome CPEC\u2019s extension to Afghanistan as \u201cit had wanted to be part of China\u2019s BRI\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In fact, the Afghan official said, regional connectivity and economic integration is part of its soon-to-be-launched foreign policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The big question, however, is how will the resource-starved Afghan government be able to finance the different connectivity projects?<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to news reports, several financial institutions including the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Islamic Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have expressed interest, but have not committed to the estimated USD 5 billion<\/a> Trans-Afghan Railway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n With USD 7 billion of Afghan assets<\/a> currently frozen in US banks, Burna-Asefi surmised the financing would \u201cmost likely come from the countries that are party to the project\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cObviously Afghanistan has no money but it can provide the manpower. Our neighbours can invest in our infrastructure now and reap benefits for years to come,\u201d said Jalali.<\/p>\n\n\n\n According to Burna-Asefi, \u201cBeijing is also attracted to Afghanistan\u2019s unexplored resources and securing rare earths\u201d. In 2010 the value of Afghan mineral resources was assessed at USD 1 trillion<\/a> by the US government; it is unclear how much they are worth now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cChina has long eyed Afghanistan\u2019s raw materials,\u201d agreed Kugelman, but said it has held back because of security concerns. Describing rare earth exploitation as \u201ca long shot\u201d, Sayed said that until peace was assured, China would not want to go in that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Security issues loom large and, with Pakistan\u2019s economy in free fall, Kugelman said that the time was not right \u201cto be thinking about ambitious, long-term connectivity projects next door\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The worsening security situation makes it difficult for Afghanistan \u201cto secure a credit line with financial institutions\u201d, said Burna-Asefi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cFor China, safety and security will take precedence over economic activity,\u201d predicted Sayed. The presence of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (a Uyghur Islamic extremist organisation founded in western China), the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (also known as ISIS or Daesh) and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan continue to cast a cloud over regional development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Without stability in Afghanistan, \u201cChina, can invest [a little] and make long-term promises, but won\u2019t budge beyond this,\u201d said Burna-Asefi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Kugelman agreed with Sayed and Burna-Asefi. \u201c[China] would not want to be burdened by the financial responsibilities\u201d and will remain \u201ccautious\u201d in Afghanistan, he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But this wariness failed to dampen Iqbal, who dismissed these concerns, saying \u201cthere is no security issue whatsoever\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Another question hanging over the project is its environmental impact and climate resilience. While CPEC<\/a> has a stated aim to pursue clean energy projects, much of it has been cement, steel and coal-intensive infrastructure in Pakistan. The construction of railway lines and the road into Afghanistan as part of CPEC\u2019s extension may mean more of the same. \u201cAfghanistan, like all of South Asia, is acutely vulnerable to climate change effects, including drought. There\u2019s reason to worry that intensive new development projects could further exacerbate Afghanistan\u2019s water insecurity,\u201d pointed out Kugelman.<\/p>\n\n\n\nRegional connectivity will promote economic development for \u201cclose to three billion people”<\/blockquote>Ahsan Iqbal, Pakistan\u2019s federal minister for planning, development and special initiatives<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
An opportunity for the Central Asian republics?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Laying down more infrastructure in Afghanistan would help Pakistan reorient its foreign policy toward a more geoeconomics-focused end goal<\/blockquote>Michael Kugelman, Wilson Center<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Trans-Afghan rail link<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Where is the money?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Obviously Afghanistan has no money but it can provide the manpower. Our neighbours can invest in our infrastructure now and reap benefits for years to come.<\/blockquote>Zakir Jalali, Afghanistan\u2019s Ministry of Foreign Affairs<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n
Security issues<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Environmental cost<\/h2>\n\n\n\n