{"id":20113900,"date":"2023-03-21T20:50:23","date_gmt":"2023-03-21T15:20:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=113900"},"modified":"2023-04-11T16:32:08","modified_gmt":"2023-04-11T11:02:08","slug":"ipcc-severe-consequences-of-further-warming-in-disaster-hit-himalayas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/ipcc-severe-consequences-of-further-warming-in-disaster-hit-himalayas\/","title":{"rendered":"IPCC: \u2018Severe consequences\u2019 of further warming in disaster-hit Himalayas"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

As the world\u2019s top climate scientists issued a \u201cfinal warning\u201d on the climate crisis with the release of the last part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)\u2019s sixth assessment report, experts working in the Hindu Kush Himalayas region raised alarm over the risks of further warming to the mountains and glaciers that are the direct or indirect lifeline of nearly 2 billion people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report<\/a>, which draws together the scientific body\u2019s work over the past eight years, stresses that even under a very low greenhouse gas emissions scenario, global warming is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius this century, increasing the risk of food insecurity, extreme weather and conflict. At current warming levels, mountain communities are already experiencing landslides, flash floods and the drying up of springs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Recommended<\/span><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n

The report says that changes to the cryosphere will have \u201csevere consequences\u201d in most mountain regions, including the Hindu Kush Himalayas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the report launch, UN secretary-general Ant\u00f3nio Guterres urged G20 nations to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. India, the current G20 chair and the world\u2019s fourth-largest greenhouse gas emitter, has pledged to do so by 2070.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some key warnings from the IPCC synthesis report for the Third Pole<\/span>
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\u2022 Global heating is projected to further intensify the global water cycle<\/strong>, including its variability, global monsoon precipitation, and very wet and dry weather
\u2022 The volume and extent of almost all elements in the cryosphere<\/strong> (the frozen mountains) are projected to reduce
\u2022 Heatwaves and droughts<\/strong> are expected to become more frequent
\u2022 Intensification of tropical cyclones<\/strong> and thunderstorms
\u2022 Increases in aridity <\/strong>and fire <\/strong>weather<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

1.5C \u2018too hot\u2019 for the Himalayas<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In 2019, a landmark report<\/a> by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) found that the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) are warming faster than the global average, and that the consequences in the region are severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICIMOD stated in its assessment that 1.5C is \u201ctoo hot<\/a>\u201d for the HKH. David Molden, former director-general of ICIMOD, warned that global warming of 1.5C will result in a 2C temperature increase in the mountains. This would affect half the glaciers in the HKH region, destabilising Asia\u2019s rivers and endangering the lives and livelihoods of billions of people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCC synthesis report says that the impacts on ecosystems of retreating glaciers<\/a> and thawing permafrost are \u201capproaching irreversibility\u201d, describing these as \u201cecosystems with low resilience\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Glaciologists<\/div>
Glaciologists monitoring changes at the Gepang Gath glacier in Himachal Pradesh, northern India (Image: Rakesh Rao \/ Climate Visuals Countdown)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Aditi Mukherji, one of the 93 authors of the IPCC synthesis report and director of the Consortium of International Agricultural Research Centres, told The Third Pole: \u201cThe report emphasises the need for better quantification of these losses and damages. We still do not have these quantified as well as the policymakers need. But they make one thing clear: the need for rapid, deep emissions cuts cannot be emphasised enough. Without that, impacts will continue to compound.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Mukherji added: \u201cDevelopment in the Himalayas is not really going in the right direction. That is why we\u2019re seeing the kind of subsidence as in Joshimath<\/a>. We\u2019re seeing the drying up of springs<\/a>. We should get beyond the old talk of development versus environment.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reacting to the IPCC synthesis report, Amina Maharjan, senior specialist of livelihoods and migration at ICIMOD, told The Third Pole: \u201cThe projected changes in climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides will lead to severe risk consequences for people, infrastructure and the economy.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maharjan described present adaptation responses in the Himalayas as \u201clargely incremental\u201d and focused on early warning systems and diversifying livelihoods. \u201cThe present pace, scope and depth of adaptation response will be insufficient to address future risks,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"A<\/div>
A farmer in Odisha, India, holds corn cobs spoiled by rain during the harvest season (Image: Aniket Gawade \/ Climate Visuals Countdown)<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Avash Pandey, assessment analyst for livelihoods at ICIMOD, said: \u201cGiven the importance of this region, in terms of the huge population dependent upon the mountain resources, it demands further inclusion of not only the issues the region faces due to climate change but also representation from this region in the entire IPCC processes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strong message for G20<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In a video message<\/a> at the IPCC AR6 synthesis report launch, Ant\u00f3nio Guterres said he had \u201cproposed to the G20 a Climate Solidarity Pact\u201d.\u00a0He called for countries to accelerate their net-zero transitions \u201cin line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, he said, developed countries should commit to reaching net-zero closer to 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Actions called for by Ant\u00f3nio Guterres to reach net zero<\/span>
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