{"id":20126718,"date":"2024-01-16T00:36:13","date_gmt":"2024-01-15T19:06:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thethirdpole.net\/?p=126718"},"modified":"2024-01-30T23:28:55","modified_gmt":"2024-01-30T17:58:55","slug":"scientists-say-worse-to-come-as-himalayan-snow-ceases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/scientists-say-worse-to-come-as-himalayan-snow-ceases\/","title":{"rendered":"Scientists say worse to come as Himalayan snow ceases"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Vikram Katoch is visibly worried: the vast valley of Lahaul-Spiti in the northern Indian state of Himachal Pradesh is almost snowless this January. \u201cBy now we should have had at least four to five feet of snow, but right now we have nothing,\u201d he says. \u201cIt is a matter of grave concern because snowfall ensures our water security and provides water for irrigation and farming to local villagers.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Katoch is vice president of the Save Lahaul Spiti Society, a non-profit organisation trying to protect this ecologically fragile valley from environmental degradation and the impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over 500km north, the situation is no different in the skiing destination of Gulmarg, Kashmir. Despite the ongoing Chillai Kalan (Kashmir\u2019s harshest, 40-day winter period) snow is missing from Gulmarg\u2019s slopes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Via social media on 9 January, Omar Abdullah, the vice president of the Jammu Kashmir National Conference party, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/OmarAbdullah\/status\/1744704844156588367?s=20\">said<\/a>: \u201cI\u2019ve never seen Gulmarg so dry in the winter &#8230; If we don\u2019t get snow soon the summer is going to be miserable.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On 10 January, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) meteorologist Sonam Lotus <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/lotusladakh\/status\/1744952164072722843?s=20\">confirmed<\/a> large winter snowfall deficits across the northern regions of Ladakh, Jammu &amp; Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. He added there is no likelihood of snow until 25 January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-map-embed block--map-embed\"><div class=\"block--map-embed__column\"><div class=\"block--map-embed__embed aspect-ratio--16-9\"><iframe src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/906431827\"><\/iframe><\/div><div class=\"block--map-embed__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--map-embed__caption\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where is the western disturbance?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2666592123001257\">western disturbance<\/a> (WD) is an extratropical storm that originates in the Mediterranean region. An area of reduced air pressure, this disturbance carries moisture from the Mediterranean and Caspian seas east, via the subtropical westerly jet stream. This brings rain and snow to Pakistan and northern India, which replenishes glaciers. These disturbances are therefore crucial for the region\u2019s water security, farming and tourism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Madhavan Rajeevan, a former secretary of India\u2019s earth sciences ministry, both the intensity and frequency of western disturbances are decreasing: \u201cThe recent studies very clearly suggest that there is a decreasing trend in winter snow or winter precipitation over the region. This is related to the less-frequent passage of western disturbances.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"20077230\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe most important worry should be the future projections of WDs. Climate models suggest a further decrease of about 10-15% in the frequency of WDs by 2050 or so. It should really worry us.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The July 2023 <a href=\"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/article\/10.1007\/s10584-023-03571-8\">study<\/a>, \u201cThe decline in western disturbance activity over northern India in recent decades\u201d, assessed 39 WD seasons between 1980 and 2019. It reported a declining trend in the frequency of these storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to the report: \u201cThe combined mean frequency of strong and extreme WDs declined by as much as\u2009~\u200943%, contrary to the mean occurrences of feeble and moderate WDs, which rose by\u2009~\u200911% &#8230; The sharpest decline (~\u200949%) was observed for the most intense WDs (strong and extreme), primarily explaining the decreasing WD precipitation intensity across the core WD zone.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Similarly, a 2019 WD <a href=\"https:\/\/centaur.reading.ac.uk\/83723\/8\/jcli-d-18-0601.1.pdf\">study<\/a> published by the American Meteorological Society concluded that: \u201cThe decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWDs are associated with the mid-latitude jet stream \u2013 strong westerly winds at around 12-15km,\u201d says Rajeevan. \u201cObservations show this jet stream has moved north during the recent winters. It could be related to global warming (which shows everything moving poleward, including monsoons, tropical cyclones) and also Arctic Sea ice melting.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lower winter precipitation, higher summer rainfall<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Another disturbing trend linked to WDs is their rising frequency during the months of May, June and July. This trend is noted in the August 2023 <a href=\"https:\/\/egusphere.copernicus.org\/preprints\/2023\/egusphere-2023-1778\/\">preprint<\/a> of a WD analysis by Kieran Hunt, a meteorology research fellow at the UK\u2019s University of Reading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Hunt\u2019s analysis: \u201cWDs have been twice as common in June in the last 20 years than during the previous 50. This is attributed to delayed northward retreat of the subtropical jet, which historically has occurred before the onset of the summer monsoon.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The preprint says its most important finding is the significant increase in monsoonal WDs, which means \u201ccatastrophic events like the 2013 Uttarakhand floods and the 2023 north India floods are becoming much more frequent.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-flooded-road-after-a-rise-in-the-water-level-of-the-river-Yamuna-following-heavy-monsoon-rains-in-New-Delhi_Amarjeet-Kumar-Singh_Alamy_2RCJRH1.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-flooded-road-after-a-rise-in-the-water-level-of-the-river-Yamuna-following-heavy-monsoon-rains-in-New-Delhi_Amarjeet-Kumar-Singh_Alamy_2RCJRH1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-flooded-road-after-a-rise-in-the-water-level-of-the-river-Yamuna-following-heavy-monsoon-rains-in-New-Delhi_Amarjeet-Kumar-Singh_Alamy_2RCJRH1-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-flooded-road-after-a-rise-in-the-water-level-of-the-river-Yamuna-following-heavy-monsoon-rains-in-New-Delhi_Amarjeet-Kumar-Singh_Alamy_2RCJRH1.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"A woman holding a baby in her arm wades through a flooded road in New Delhi\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">The worst-affected areas when Delhi floods are typically home to the city&#8217;s poorest residents, where civic amenities (such as drainage) are weak (Image: Amarjeet Kumar Singh \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-flooded-road-after-a-rise-in-the-water-level-of-the-river-Yamuna-following-heavy-monsoon-rains-in-New-Delhi_Amarjeet-Kumar-Singh_Alamy_2RCJRH1.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"554 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1707\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-snowless-winters\">Snowless winters<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lotus is based in Leh, Ladakh, where snowless winters are becoming a huge concern. \u201cIt is mid-January, which is the peak winter season,\u201d he says. \u201cBut it is unusually warm. This winter is the warmest winter in Leh in the past decade.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to IMD data, December 2023 was an almost <a href=\"https:\/\/mausam.imd.gov.in\/responsive\/rainfallinformation.php?msg=M\">snowless<\/a> month for most of northern India. Precipitation in both Jammu &amp; Kashmir and Ladakh was -79% of those levels typical in December. In the state of Himachal Pradesh it was -85% and in Uttarakhand it was -75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>January has so far been worse, with Uttarakhand receiving <a href=\"https:\/\/mausam.imd.gov.in\/responsive\/rainfall_statistics.php?PAGE=5\">-99%<\/a> of the typical precipitation during the first two weeks of this month. Meanwhile, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu &amp; Kashmir, and Ladakh have not received any precipitation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-pull-quote block--pull-quote\"><div class=\"block--pull-quote__wrapper\"><blockquote class=\"block--pull-quote__quote\">Snowfall during the winter period is crucial as it feeds the glaciers<\/blockquote><cite class=\"block--pull-quote__cite\">Irfan Rashid, University of Kashmir<\/cite><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Lotus says this is not the region\u2019s first dry spell: \u201cAnalysis of the past 43 years of data shows that there have been years when snowfall has been lower than what has been received this winter.\u201d For example, in 2016 and 2018 Leh did not receive snow during November and December. Gulmarg was similarly dry in 2016: snowfall during November and December amounted to 7.6cms, compared to 23cms in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src='https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/16458143\/embed' title='Interactive or visual content' class='flourish-embed-iframe' frameborder='0' scrolling='no' style='width:100%;height:600px;' sandbox='allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation'><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>Lotus is reluctant to make a direct connection between climate change and this year\u2019s unusual snowfall in the Himalayas. What he deems indisputable, however, is that rising temperatures are making things worse. In 2023, the lowest minimum temperature recorded in Leh was -12.2C, which is significantly warmer than previous years. Lotus says this combination of low snowfall and high temperatures will accelerate Himalayan glacial melt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Impact on glaciers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Third Pole speaks to Irfan Rashid, an assistant geoinformatics professor at the University of Kashmir who specialises in Kashmir\u2019s cryosphere. Rashid agrees with Lotus: \u201cIn the past two decades, we have had at least four snowless Chillai Kalans. Snowfall during the winter period is crucial as it feeds the glaciers which, during the summer months, slowly release water that rejuvenates springs, feeds the rivers and also provides water for irrigation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-accordion block--accordion\"><span class=\"block--accordion__title\"><strong>What is the cryosphere?<\/strong><\/span><div class=\"block--accordion__content\"><div class=\"block--accordion__content__inner\">\n<p>The term cryosphere refers to the areas of the planet where most of the water is in a frozen form: the polar regions and high mountains. In the&nbsp;Hindu Kush Himalayas, the world\u2019s highest mountain range, frozen water exists in the form of glaciers, ice caps, snow,&nbsp;permafrost, and ice on rivers and lakes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/climate-change-glossary\/\">Read our guide to climate change terms<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cPeople in the valley are already speculating about a drought this year, as it is the winter snowfall that sustains them through the year by providing them water to grow [rice] and apples,\u201d adds Rashid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">After 7 years, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Kashmir?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Kashmir<\/a> is again experiencing <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/snowless?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#snowless<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/winter?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#winter<\/a>. The snow in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/chillaikalaan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#chillaikalaan<\/a>, the 40-day severest part of winter b\/w 21 Dec and 29 Jan, is important for regulating glacier health and streamflows.+ <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dUkSUiXKUn\">pic.twitter.com\/dUkSUiXKUn<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Irfan Rashid (@irfansalroo) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/irfansalroo\/status\/1744958941732470843?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 10, 2024<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The loss of glacier mass is a critical threat to the water security of the Himalayan region. \u201cI have personally been studying the Drang Drung Glacier [in Ladakh] that feeds the Zanskar River,\u201d says Rashid. \u201cIt has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mdpi.com\/2071-1050\/15\/20\/15067\">receding<\/a> at a rate of 50m per year since 2017.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A threat to water security<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Rajeevan agrees that the water security of the region could be affected if western disturbances and their associated snowfall decrease: \u201cWater flowing into these rivers [the five rivers of the Indus Basin] due to the melting of snow is very important for water management over this area, for agriculture, power generation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"20078418\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>He adds that the Indus Water Treaty, which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mea.gov.in\/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl\/6439\/Indus\">manages<\/a> river water sharing between India and Pakistan, could also be impacted; Rashid agrees that the lack of winter snowfall and receding glaciers could have a transboundary impact: \u201cWe need basin-wide, detailed studies for the same.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rashid says these changes also threaten more disasters in the region, such as the Chamoli disaster in February 2021, or the more recent <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/opinion-greater-cooperation-will-accelerate-himalayan-climate-action\/\">South Lhonak Lake disaster in Sikkim<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe Himalayan region \u2013 not just in India, but the entire Hindu Kush and Karakoram \u2013 has steep slopes that host snow or permafrost,\u201d explains Rashid. \u201cThese are vulnerable slopes and as heat rises and there is a lack of sufficient snowfall, these areas are likely to become hotspots for disasters such as GLOFs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-accordion block--accordion\"><span class=\"block--accordion__title\"><strong>What is a GLOF?<\/strong><\/span><div class=\"block--accordion__content\"><div class=\"block--accordion__content__inner\">\n<p>A Glacial Lake Outburst Flood or GLOF is a sudden release of water from a lake formed by meltwater from a mountain glacier, which is held back by ice or a moraine (rocks and sediment carried along by the glacier). These floods can be prompted by an earthquake,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/how-climate-change-worsens-avalanches-in-the-himalayas\/\">avalanche<\/a>&nbsp;or the accumulation of too much meltwater. GLOFs are often extremely destructive, and are a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/glofs-himalayas\/\">growing threat<\/a>&nbsp;in the Himalayan watershed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/climate-change-glossary\/\">Read our guide to climate change terms<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of these disasters are already evident. Uttarakhand has seen an enormous increase in forest fires, from 922 in 2002, to 41,600 in 2019. Climate change, which increases the chances of low rainfall in this region, is a critical <a href=\"https:\/\/fireecology.springeropen.com\/articles\/10.1186\/s42408-023-00177-4\">driving<\/a> factor. Uttarakhand&#8217;s forest fires usually happen between April and June, but this year they are already <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/shubhamtorres09\/status\/1745844862879154488?s=46&amp;t=etv5WBS3eZYNB3s6gmK1Pw\">igniting<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given the scope of these emerging challenges, Rashid believes the Indian government needs to urgently set up a national programme to establish what is happening to western disturbances. He says if they are armed with credible scientific data, institutions can devise plans to handle this looming threat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Himalayan ecologies and economies are heavily reliant on winter snowfall, but the necessary weather patterns \u2013 western disturbances in particular \u2013 are decreasing in frequency and intensity <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1072,"featured_media":20126781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[519,20000022,20000628],"hashtags":[],"country":[20000111],"class_list":["post-20126718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-climate-impacts","tag-himalayas","tag-science","country-india"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - 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General view of dry ski slopes at the world famed ski resort of Gulmarg on a sunny winter day in Baramulla district. Gulmarg, a key tourist attraction in Kashmir renowned globally for its ski resorts, is experiencing an unprecedented dry spell this year, leaving its ski slopes and scenic landscapes devoid of winter snow. Both weather experts and those dependent on tourism for their livelihood are expressing concern over extended dry spell, impacting the region's economy and the expectations of winter enthusiasts. 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