{"id":25140,"date":"2006-06-27T16:10:00","date_gmt":"2006-06-27T16:10:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-09-24T09:49:02","modified_gmt":"2020-09-24T09:49:02","slug":"140-briefing-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/140-briefing-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"Briefing: climate change"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Climate change will affect China, and China will affect climate change.<\/p>\n

In its broadest usage, \u201cclimate change\u201d refers to alterations in the earth\u2019s global climate, or in a region\u2019s climate, over several decades or longer time periods. Long-term, persistent fluctuations in temperature, precipitation, wind and other factors can be measured, and statistically significant variations in the average state of the climate \u2013 or in its changeability \u2013 are cited to illustrate climate change<\/a>. But what is climate? It\u2019s the long-term average of a region\u2019s weather. Weather<\/a>, then, is a short-term thing \u2013 encompassing the variety of phenomena that can occur in the earth\u2019s atmosphere.<\/p>\n

Climate change can occur as a result of both natural and man-made forces. The earth\u2019s climate has suffered drastic changes in the past but climatology studies have shown that a limited number of factors<\/a> have been responsible for most of the past climate change episodes. These factors include: variations in the earth\u2019s orbital characteristics, volcanic eruptions, variations in solar output and atmospheric carbon-dioxide variations. It is the latter factor, carbon dioxide — along with other \u201cgreenhouse gases\u201d — that are linked to the planet\u2019s current predicament. This time it is humankind, not natural forces, that is being blamed \u2013 because of the burning of fossil fuels — for the build-up of these gases in the earth\u2019s atmosphere. The gases, in turn, trap the sun\u2019s heat, affecting rainfall patterns, sea levels, drought and desertification, habitat loss and much more.<\/p>\n

While scientists prefer the term \u201cclimate change\u201d as the more accurate description of what is happening, many people use \u201cclimate change\u201d interchangeably with \u201cglobal warming<\/a>\u201d and \u201cthe greenhouse effect\u201d. How does it work? The greenhouse effect means that the warmth of the sun \u2013 93 million miles, or 150 million kilometres, away — heats the planet\u2019s surface, and that heat radiates back into space. Some of this infrared radiation<\/a> is trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapour, warming the lower atmosphere, or troposphere. Some of the heat finds it way back to the planet\u2019s surface, making it hotter than it otherwise would be. In effect, the atmosphere acts like the glass in a greenhouse.<\/p>\n

Along with carbon dioxide and the more plentiful water vapour, greenhouse gases include methane, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and nitrous oxide. \u201cMethane is the most important of these,\u201d says New Scientist<\/a> <\/em>magazine. \u201cIts atmospheric concentration has more than doubled since pre-industrial times. Methane sources include bacteria in paddy fields, cattle guts and natural gas from landfills and rotting vegetation. Molecule for molecule, other substances are even more potent. A single molecule of either of the two most common CFCs has the same greenhouse warming effect as 10,000 CO\u00b2 molecules.\u201d CFCs drift into the upper atmosphere, or stratosphere, where their chlorine and\/or bromine components destroy ozone<\/a>. While it is polluting and harmful in the troposphere, ozone in the stratosphere is a natural form of oxygen, forming a protective layer<\/a> around the planet and shielding it from life-threatening ultraviolet radiation.<\/p>\n

So, what does all this mean for China? Key to the country\u2019s relationship with climate change is its booming economy and energy sector, says Pan Jiahua<\/a>, executive director of the sustainable development research centre of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. \u201cSince the end of the 1980s, when climate change was brought to the global political agenda, China has gone from generating a surplus of energy to becoming an importer of oil,\u201d Pan wrote in a 2005 article for the Science and Development Network<\/a>. \u201cThe change is a symptom of a rapidly industrialising nation and comes hand-in-hand with many of the signs of a nation already suffering from the effects of climate change.\u201d China is the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after the United States and recent figures<\/a> indicate that China\u2019s population and environment \u201care likely to suffer the effects of extreme weather events made more frequent by climate change, […] rising temperatures and changing rainfall will affect food production, and […] energy consumption \u2014 a major source of emissions \u2014 will continue to rise over the coming decades.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cYet,\u201d Professor Pan adds, \u201cChina, as a developing nation, is not bound to limit its emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, and will not do so at the expense of its development. The government says developed nations must bear the responsibility for historical rises in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Despite this, the Chinese government is aware of the complexities and effects of climate change. Although its primary motivation is not to align itself with international climate change policy, it is adopting measures to diversify its sources of energy and to increase energy efficiency, which could slow the steep rise of its emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

As Professor Pan acknowledges, China, like the rest of the world, has been experiencing the effects of climate change. A comprehensive two-volume assessment in Chinese, Climate and Environmental Change in China<\/em> (edited by Qin Dahe, Chen Yiyu and Li Xueyong), published in 2005, says the average temperature in China increased by 0.6 to 0.8 degrees centigrade over the past century, while in the past 50 years, sea levels rose by 1 to 2.5 millimetres annually.<\/p>\n

How much do these seemingly slight increases matter? \u201cClimate change,\u201d writes Professor Pan, \u201cwill make China more vulnerable to damage caused by rising sea levels, drought, flooding, tropical cyclones, sandstorms and heat waves. Although a warmer climate will increase the amount of land available for farming, extreme weather could reduce agricultural yield by 10%.\u201d<\/p>\n

In only 50 years, China has moved from an agrarian society to one in which half of its output is industrial. With that shift \u2013 and the increase in energy consumption that comes with urbanisation, plus the fact that it still generates most of its energy from burning coal \u2013 China faces a harsh reality. Like India and Brazil, the country is expected to be a major voice in future international climate change negotiations, in the post-Kyoto period beginning in 2012.<\/p>\n

\u201cProbably the only way China will take on emissions restrictions is if it can implement clean energy technologies that will allow its economy to keep growing swiftly,\u201d writes Maya Papineau in the online journal of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research<\/a> (Cicero). \u201cHowever, technology transfer from the developed nations, on an unprecedented scale, is likely the only way to bring about serious cutbacks while preserving economic growth. In this respect, most of the challenge lies with the industrialised nations to agree on a framework to efficiently transfer cleaner energy technologies to the developing world.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cAs post-Kyoto negotiations evolve,\u201d writes Professor Pan, \u201cmany feel that China will have to consider committing to reducing emissions after 2012. \u2026 [i]t is in China\u2019s interest to help mitigate the effects of climate change both internationally and domestically. Cooperating will help China become more energy efficient and use more energy from renewable sources. Spurred on by this, China is more likely to participate in global initiatives on energy efficiency, development of renewable energy, and carbon capture and storage, than to commit to reducing its emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, he points out, the country has a long way to go on its development path.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Difficult decisions on greenhouse gases loom large for China, writes Maryann Bird, in the second of a series of guides to hot topics in a warming world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1094,"featured_media":52514,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-25140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBriefing: climate change | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Difficult decisions on greenhouse gases loom large for China, writes Maryann Bird, in the second of a series of guides to hot topics in a warming world.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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