{"id":25437,"date":"2006-10-09T18:01:00","date_gmt":"2006-10-09T18:01:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-05-14T18:34:10","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T18:34:10","slug":"437-south-to-north-water-transfer-the-costs-hardly-add-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/nature\/437-south-to-north-water-transfer-the-costs-hardly-add-up\/","title":{"rendered":"South-to-north water transfer: \u201cThe costs hardly add up\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

The need for a response to China’s water shortage<\/a> is not contested. China is one of the most water-poor countries in the world, languishing at number 122 in the world<\/span>–water league table below other populous nations, <\/span>including the US and Russia.<\/p>\n

Supply in the northern regions<\/span><\/a> is especially tight. Just one quarter of China’s total annual rainfall falls on the barren landscape that stretches from Beijing to Gansu <\/span>province, and water tables have dropped sharply in recent years as farmers bore further into the earth’s crust to extract <\/span>water for their crops. A projected 25% growth in the national population<\/span><\/a> over the next 30 years will not make life any easier. Meanwhile, some areas in the south suffer from the opposite problem – <\/span>an excess of water – as a result of seasonal flooding. <\/span><\/p>\n

Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region<\/span><\/a>, a dust-bath on the fringes of the enormous Loess Plateau<\/span><\/a>, is on the front-line of China’s water struggles and is already classified as water-short by international standards. Migration<\/a> from the region is the solution, according to provincial governors, who believe that <\/span>having fewer people will ease the crisis. Even so, supply is predicted to drop by almost half by 2030 as consumption rates increase.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the long-term, Ningxia is also one of the proposed beneficiaries of the south-to-north transfer<\/span><\/a>, which aims to correct regional supply imbalances through the construction of three canals – eastern, central and western – stretching over 3,000 kilometres to create a basin-to-basin transfer from the southern Yangtze to the northern Yellow<\/span> River.<\/p>\n

Sceptics have questioned the wisdom of the scheme. Work is due to involve the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, engineering work on a colossal scale and fundamental changes to the hydrological and ecological functioning of the two river systems. The price-tag, estimated to reach as much as US$ 59 billion by <\/span>the project’s completion in 2050, is also gargantuan. But is it money well spent?<\/span><\/p>\n

Agriculture, which stands to benefit most from the <\/span>water transfer, is the major problem. Grain and other crops guzzle an enormous 70% share of China’s total water availability, but contribute just 15% in return to China’s GDP earnings. Based on current land-use patterns, therefore, the cost of providing water through any component of the south–north transfer scheme would make its use for irrigation uneconomic, even if grain prices trebled.<\/span><\/p>\n

Once less tangible costs associated with the transfer schemes are taken into account – the disruption of hydrological and ecological processes, loss of wildlife and landscapes – the lack of economic justification becomes even clearer. Even higher economic returns from industrial and urban users on some routes do not balance the books.<\/span><\/p>\n

Low levels of efficiency in water use raise yet further question-marks over the need for massive new infrastructure.<\/span><\/p>\n

Better irrigation systems, for example, could achieve significant reductions in overall use. Efforts to renew creaky infrastructure, especially pipes, could also cut wastage, which could run as high as 50%<\/span>, according to unofficial estimates.<\/span><\/p>\n

Investment in waste<\/span>–water plants that allow water to be recycled provides yet another alternative. Water taken from the River Thames<\/a><\/span> in England, for example, is used at least three times before it enters the sea some 200 km from its source. Despite its high level of re<\/span>-use, the Thames remains of relatively high <\/span>environmental quality due to careful recycling.<\/p>\n

Better pricing, too, would play its part. In the former <\/span>Soviet bloc countries of central Europe, domestic water use fell by almost 50% following relatively straight-forward price increases.<\/span> Despite a new water law in 2002 that commits <\/span>the government to price reform, water in China remains hugely under-priced, meaning that there is no incentive to be more sparing.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whereas the transfer scheme provide<\/span>s up to 44.8 billion m3<\/sup> of additional water to the Yellow River each year, management fixes (with the necessary political will) and gradual restructuring of the <\/span>Chinese economy could more than double this amount.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

K<\/span>ey recommendations <\/span><\/strong>of <\/span>Dr. Warren’s report<\/span><\/strong>:<\/o:p><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

1. Reduce leakage from urban distribution systems;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2. Improve the collection and treatment of waste water so that it can be re-used downstream;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3. Discourage irrigated agriculture in arid regions;Improve irrigation methods and practice;<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4. Improve irrigation methods and practice;<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5. Encourage grain exports from regions of the country where crops are at least partly rain fed<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The above extract was adapted from a WWF-commissioned report, “The proposed South–North Water Transfer Scheme in China: Need, Justification and Cost”, which was written in 2001. WWF China wishes to make it clear that the views expressed are only those of the author, Dr. S.C. Warren.
\n<\/span><\/p>\n

Homepage photo by Sam Haldane
\n<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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