{"id":28041,"date":"2009-05-28T09:25:00","date_gmt":"2009-05-28T09:25:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-05-14T18:38:57","modified_gmt":"2020-05-14T18:38:57","slug":"3041-the-future-of-carbon-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/3041-the-future-of-carbon-trading\/","title":{"rendered":"The future of carbon trading"},"content":{"rendered":"

The price of carbon seems to be <\/span>rising slowly, closing<\/a> <\/span>on May 27 at 15.24 Euros a tonne. For the past several months<\/span>, the price on the<\/span> European Climate Exchange fluctuated around the <\/span>nine-Euro mark. Current prices are slightly better than predicted last year, but still far off 31<\/span> Euros – the price in August 2008.<\/p>\n

Climate change and the economic crisis share one <\/span>crucial <\/span>feature: the importance of financing mechanisms. In <\/span>every climate-change proposal, emissions reduction and climate-change adaptation require funding that runs into the tens of billions of dollars. Finding and allocating that <\/span>money will be the core of any climate deal reached at <\/span>the United Nations conference in Copenhagen in December. But the ongoing crisis ha<\/span>s highlighted the problems of carbon markets, and forced a re-examination of their role in any future deal.<\/p>\n

In 1997, the Kyoto Protocol established a system of rights over environment resources that created a<\/span> market mechanism known as a cap-and-trade system. People hoped that carbon trading would solve a global “tragedy of the commons<\/a><\/span>”. Certainly, it is hard to imagine the energy industry making changes without the right economic incentives in place. But with the financial crisis darkening an already bleak outlook, will carbon trading <\/span>come to a premature end?<\/p>\n

In April, the European Union published emissions figures for its 27 member states. Overall emissions for the EU were down 6% on the previous year, at 2.11 b<\/span>illion tonnes. Emissions from the concrete, chemical, glass and paper industries <\/span>had fallen significantly – a drop of 9% – while emissions f<\/span>rom power-generation fell by 6%. Industry <\/span>analysts believe that this was not only caused by the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, <\/span>but also the fall in production <\/span>triggered by the financial crisis.<\/p>\n

Carbon markets may be non-traditional, but the laws of supply and demand still hold true <\/span>– and the price of carbon reflects overall economic trends. Lower emissions reduced businesses<\/span>’ need for emissions quotas and some dumped those that they held. Meanwhile developing nations <\/span>sold off their emissions quotas<\/span>, which were of no more use to them than hot air, exacerbating the problem of oversupply. The market plummeted.<\/p>\n

In 2005, a crash in the <\/span>carbon market saw prices drop <\/span>close to zero. This was due to the EU miscalculating national emission levels and issuing too many quotas, thus killing demand. This <\/span>year however, the economy <\/span>was to blame.<\/p>\n

In discussions about post-Kyoto mechanisms, there <\/span>is a tension between truly equitable, and more competitive, price-setting mechanisms. Long-term considerations about carbon pricing are thus a major factor in<\/span> discussions about<\/span> the impacts of emissions reduction. A carbon price that fluctuates within a reasonable range is of interest to developed governments and investors. But for developing countries participating in Clean Development Me<\/span>chanism, a low carbon price is unfair and unhelpful in reducing emissions.<\/p>\n

Prices for traditional products are set by supply and demand. But what worries investors about carbon is the <\/span>important role of political priorities in price-setting. Policy will determine the outlook for long-term investment in infrastructure, manufacturing <\/span>and technology. Investors have been calling for a “Three-L” policy signal<\/span>: long, loud and legally binding. This is also the case for venture capital<\/span> and private equity. But the carbon market is even more risky, since it is heavily reliant on multilateral political agreements. <\/span><\/p>\n

Specialist carbon investment funds that emerged in recent years have struggled<\/span>; some have pulled out or switch<\/span>ed funds to other markets. The first phase of the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012, and there is not yet a plan for moving from the <\/span>current carbon market framework to a new global deal. Negotiations <\/span>that take place over a five-year basis do not fit with normal investment cycles. Investors look at carbon markets, but do not act. <\/span><\/p>\n

China is the country with the <\/span>most emissions reduction quotas under the CDM – and a battlefield for investors. In the last two years, with the market expected to rocket, most quot<\/span>a purchase agreements were priced at 10 Euros or more. Average project development costs <\/span>are around one Euro per tonne of carbon, while the cost of carbon hovers around the 11 to 12-Euro mark. Therefore there is no guarantee of a reasonable return. This year the slow pace of negotiations and the low price of carbon have slowed down progress on projects. Add in the <\/span>other failings of the CDM<\/span><\/a>, and there is a pressing need for change. <\/span><\/p>\n

Low carbon prices do not only present an obstacle to investment in the low-carbon economy, they also exacerbate differences between political groupings. <\/span><\/p>\n

At recent UN-led climate talks in <\/span>Poznan, Poland, the British and German environment ministers emphasi<\/span>sed the role of carbon markets as a funding stream in the future. For the EU, the current 2% tax on income from the CDM remains the main source of fund<\/span>s. As long as there is still a market, these funds will flow. Politically, this is an easier option than increasing carbon taxes, and the system is already in place – it <\/span>only needs to be expanded. Meanwhile, financial institutions and large businesses will welcome the investment opportunities. <\/span><\/p>\n

However, some of the major developing nations oppose the <\/span>expansion of carbon markets in their countries. <\/span>Current proposal<\/span>s would see the EU cut emissions by 30% from 1990 levels by 2020, with half of that reduction coming from the purchase of quotas from the developing world<\/span>: a form of offsetting. But this <\/span>raises worries among industrialising nations. Developing countries will lose the opportunity to make cheaper reductions in emissions, as r<\/span>equirements increasingly target energy-intensive industries<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Moreover, fluctuations in the carbon price m<\/span>ean the funding for emissions reduction and adaptation provided from developed nations to the developing world <\/span>is unpredictable. This tends to make carbon trading politically unsaleable. <\/span>Negotiations are deadlocked on these issues, and there is not a clear road ahead.<\/p>\n

But despite these disagreements, carbon markets are expanding. In the United States, <\/span>some regional markets are in operation; Australia and Japan are working on <\/span>similar plans. Meanwhile the emissions reduction projects in developing nations as part of the CDM system have provided<\/span> an important reference for <\/span>a future agreement. But technical problems are easily resolved; it is political agreement that is elusive. <\/span><\/p>\n

There is also a complex relationship between the cost of carbon and the cost of oil. When <\/span>the oil price is high, the price of carbon rises as more people seek out alternative <\/span>energy sources. Lower oil consumption during the economic crisis has reduced emissions, <\/span>but the low price of carbon has weakened investment in emissions-reduc<\/span>ing technologies. The way to restore investor confidence is the addition of public funds to put the market back in order <\/span>– and help push forward the low-carbon economy during the economic crisis.<\/p>\n

\nYu Jie<\/i> is<\/i> h<\/i>ead of <\/i>p<\/i>olicy and <\/i>r<\/i>esearch at Climate<\/span><\/i> G<\/i>roup China.<\/i><\/p>\n

Homepage photo by freefotouk<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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