{"id":33480,"date":"2015-12-17T10:21:00","date_gmt":"2015-12-17T10:21:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-07-30T14:43:21","modified_gmt":"2020-07-30T14:43:21","slug":"8480-why-fossil-fuels-producers-will-have-to-take-back-carbon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/8480-why-fossil-fuels-producers-will-have-to-take-back-carbon\/","title":{"rendered":"Why fossil fuels producers will have to \u201ctake back\u201d carbon \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

I wonder how many of the delegates in Paris realise that they have just created the mother of all \u201ctake-back schemes\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a consumer, you may have already come across\u00a0this sort of deal<\/a>: if you don\u2019t want to dispose of the packaging of your new sofa, you can take it back to IKEA and it\u2019s their problem. In many places, you can even take back the sofa itself when your kids have wrecked it. For the Paris climate deal to succeed something similar will have to happen, where companies that rely on fossil fuels will be obliged to \u201ctake back\u201d their emissions.<\/p>\n

The agreement reaffirms a commitment to stabilising temperature rises well below 2<\/span>\u2103, and even retains the option of limiting warming to 1.5C\u00a0if possible. But it also confirms\u00a0national targets<\/a>\u00a0that do little more than stabilise global emissions between now and 2030.<\/p>\n

Given those emissions, sticking to within 2C<\/span>\u00a0will require us to take lots of carbon out of the atmosphere and store it in the ground. The parties to the agreement are, in effect, saying \u201cwe\u2019re going to sell this stuff, and we\u2019re going to dispose of it later\u201d.<\/p>\n

How do I know? Well, peak warming is overwhelmingly determined by\u00a0<\/span>cumulative carbon dioxide emissions<\/a>. To stabilise temperatures at any level, be it 1.5C,2C\u00a0or even 3C, net carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced to zero. Most governments, environmental groups and business leaders now understand this. And it is acknowledged, albeit implicitly, in Article 4 of the Paris agreement, which calls for greenhouse emissions to be \u201cbalanced\u201d by carbon sinks some time after mid-century.<\/p>\n

But we\u2019re unlikely to hit \u201cnet zero\u201d emissions before temperatures reach 2C<\/span>, and even less likely before they reach 1.5C. Warming is currently at about 1C\u00a0and rising by 0.1C\u00a0every five to ten years. We could slow the warming by reducing emissions, of course. But if we fail to reduce at the required rate \u2013 and the inadequate emissions targets indicate this is the intention \u2013 then we will be left with no option but to scrub the excess CO2\u00a0back\u00a0out of the atmosphere<\/a>\u00a0in future.<\/p>\n

Owners of fossil fuel assets<\/span><\/h2>\n

That is why the deal is like a gigantic take-back scheme. The proof lies in what is not said in the Paris agreement. There is no explicit mention of a\u00a0global carbon budget<\/a>\u00a0for instance, which adds up total emissions since the industrial revolution.<\/p>\n

That is despite the fact that all governments have acknowledged, through the\u00a0<\/span>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/a>, the reality that stabilising temperatures requires a limit on cumulative CO2 emissions. Certain countries simply cannot accept the suggestion that they may be obliged to leave some of their prized fossil carbon reserves underground.<\/p>\n

And why should they? We do not need, and nor have we any right, to ban India from using its coal. We simply need to ensure that, by the time global temperatures reach 2C<\/span>\u00a0(or 1.5C\u00a0if that is what is eventually deemed safe), any company that sells fossil fuels, or any carbon-intensive product like conventional cement, is obliged to take back an equivalent amount of CO2\u00a0and dispose of it safely to ensure it doesn\u2019t end up in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

Right now, that means\u00a0<\/span>re-injection underground<\/a>: forests can\u2019t be relied on over geological timescales (they might\u00a0burn down<\/a>, or even die out and re-release their carbon due to climate change itself). But there are plenty of other\u00a0creative ideas<\/a>\u00a0for carbon dioxide disposal (such as sucking C02 out of the air and using it in industrial processes): someone just needs the incentive to do it.<\/p>\n

And who better than the owners of the fossil fuel assets at the heart of the problem? Logically, the cost of CO<\/span>2\u00a0disposal should be borne by the seller of fossil carbon. If it is paid for out of general taxation, no one will have any incentive to minimise the carbon content in the products they sell or buy, nor will companies have an incentive to minimise the cost of disposal. And relying on taxpayers to pay for disposal makes it vulnerable every time the purse strings are tightened.<\/p>\n

The idea of a \u201cCO<\/span>2\u00a0take-back\u201d scheme was suggested by Nick Robins, a UN sustainability adviser, at a recent event in Paris. It may have been meant as a whimsical aside, but it really is the only feasible way of stabilising the climate. The alternative \u2013 a global ban on fossil fuel extraction and use \u2013 is neither ethical nor enforceable.<\/p>\n

Fantasy scenarios<\/span><\/h2>\n

Enthusiasts for renewable energy would like us to believe they can make it cheaper than coal, so a global ban would be unnecessary. But there will still be cement, jet fuel, fertiliser \u2013 the list is endless. The idea that we will develop a cheaper substitute for every single application of fossil carbon, everywhere in the world, before temperatures reach 2C<\/span>, is pure fantasy. As\u00a0Ottmar Edenhofer<\/a>, one of the world\u2019s leading climate economists, put it: \u201cAs a Catholic, I believe in miracles, but I do not rely on them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Of course, if we include the\u00a0<\/span>costs of take-back<\/a>, then high-carbon products will become more expensive, which is all good for renewables. But unlike new taxes, take-back schemes are\u00a0generally popular<\/a>\u00a0despite industry\u2019s dire warnings about increased costs.<\/p>\n

People understand that the main beneficiary of fancy packaging is the company selling the product. And even at today\u2019s prices, the main beneficiaries of our continued use of fossil fuels are\u00a0not the long-suffering consumer, nor even the firm with its logo on the pump, but those who hoover up the royalties, taxes and rents as fossil fuels come out of the ground.<\/span><\/p>\n

Earlier this year, I suggested that something like a CO2\u00a0take-back scheme (although not with nearly such a catchy name) should be considered in the\u00a0UK energy bill<\/a>, and was promptly taken out for a coffee by a well-spoken industry lobbyist to tell me what a bad idea it was. To my mind, that rather suggested that I was onto something.<\/p>\n

\u201c<\/span>Mandatory sequestration<\/a>\u201d hasn\u2019t really caught on in the environmental movement, partly I\u2019m sure because it is a bit of a mouthful for any campaigner. But stack up the net zero emissions point against the inadequate national targets, and you soon realise that all those shouting \u201c1.5 to stay alive<\/a>\u201d in Paris (and there were plenty) were actually advocating a crash programme of CO2\u00a0disposal.<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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