{"id":33571,"date":"2016-01-29T13:43:00","date_gmt":"2016-01-29T13:43:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-10-23T11:49:11","modified_gmt":"2020-10-23T11:49:11","slug":"8571-world-nuclear-industry-in-decline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/8571-world-nuclear-industry-in-decline\/","title":{"rendered":"World nuclear industry in decline"},"content":{"rendered":"

This week, the board of French state-controlled utility EDF postponed a vote on what would be the largest nuclear project in Europe in decades.<\/p>\n

A thumbs-up from the directors would have prompted EDF to deepen cooperation with Chinese counterpart CGN in the Hinkley Point C project, a plan to build\u00a0two European\u00a0pressurised water\u00a0reactors (EPRs) in Somerset, England. The\u00a0estimated cost is\u00a0\u00a324.5\u00a0billion.<\/p>\n

The delayed decision, along with the huge cost\u00a0of the project and major doubts about the reactor design, has increased expectations that the\u00a0power station will not go ahead.<\/p>\n

The saga of the French project in the UK is symptomatic of the state of the world nuclear industry\u2014one step forward, two steps back. Is it now less certain that China is the exception to the rule? In a surprise move the Chinese government just stopped the construction of two EPRs in Guangdong province due to safety concerns.<\/p>\n

At first sight, 2015 was a good year for the world nuclear industry. A total of ten new nuclear reactors were connected to the grid, more than in any other year since 1990, while only two units were shut down, one in Germany and one in the UK. At the start of this year, a total of 398\u00a0reactors\u2014eight more than a year ago\u2014were operating in 31 countries.<\/p>\n

Construction began on seven units. Two reactors were restarted in Japan, the first ones after the country\u2019s nuclear fleet was shut down in the wake of the 2011 Tsunami and earthquake that prompted a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear plant.<\/p>\n

A framework investment agreement was signed between British, French and Chinese partners for the launch of a new power plant at Hinkley Point in the UK. And also last year, preparations for a call for tender for the\u00a0construction of new nuclear plants were initiated in South Africa.<\/p>\n

However, a closer look shows that the future potential for nuclear is mainly focused on China, whereas the situation of the nuclear industry in the rest of the world remains gloomy. Worse, less than two months after the signature of the Paris Agreement on climate change, the French nuclear industry is facing corporate meltdown.<\/p>\n

See also: The global nuclear decline<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSource: World Nuclear Industry Status Report (or simply WNISR), MSC, 2016<\/em><\/p>\n

China represents eight out of the ten new reactors started up, and six of the seven new building sites. One reactor started up in South Korea, and another\u00a0in Russia, after 31 years of construction. Japan confirmed the final closure of five reactors that had not generated power since the aftermath of the Fukushima accident.<\/p>\n

Sweden decided to permanently close a unit that\u00a0initially shut down in 2013 for upgrade work because the operator had calculated that it was no longer economically viable.<\/p>\n

The Swedish move was not the first and certainly not the last utility decision to withdraw licensed\u00a0reactors from the grid. \u201cThings are tough for nuclear power at the moment\u201d, head of generation at the Swedish utility Vattenfall,<\/a> said last month.<\/p>\n

“So far, a good many of our investments have been made in the hope that electricity prices will start to rise. But clearly there are fewer and fewer signs that this will actually happen. We don’t expect to see higher market prices for electricity over the next five or ten years.”<\/p>\n

Vattenfall\u2019s CEO Magnus Hall has added: \u201cWe are going through a paradigm shift, which is challenging the model of large-scale energy generation and distribution to end users in favour of decentralised and individualised energy solutions.\u201d The company intends to spend SEK50 billion (US$5.9\u00a0billion) on renewables until 2020. At the same time, Vattenfall has announced that it will prematurely retire three additional reactors before 2020.<\/p>\n

Consequently, nuclear new-build for Vattenfall is a non-starter. A similar situation is observed in other countries, particularly the US, where two reactors, licensed to operate into the 2030s, have been closed, while two more will be shut down until 2017, because they cannot compete in the power markets.<\/p>\n

In effect, all of the nuclear new-build projects beyond the five reactors currently under construction have been delayed indefinitely. Outside China, only one construction site broke ground in 2015, in the United Arab Emirates, which had\u00a0asked South Korean firms\u00a0to a build the country\u2019s first nuclear power plant.<\/p>\n

At the beginning of this year, of the 62 nuclear power plants with a combined capacity of 60 gigawatts (GW) under construction in 14 countries, 24 were\u00a0located in China. The world total is down from a 25-year high of 67 in 2013.<\/p>\n

Three quarters of the projects have been delayed, many by several years. Four EPRs\u00a0under construction in Finland, France \u00a0and China are years behind schedule. And, for the nuclear industry, it might still get worse.<\/p>\n

The Chinese government\u00a0stated on 27\u00a0January\u00a02016<\/a>\u00a0that following safety concerns, construction of two EPRs that a Franco-Chinese consortium is building at Taishan in Guangdong had been delayed.<\/p>\n

Fabrication faults have been identified in the reactor pressure vessel of the EPR built at Flamanville in France. The same fabrication process has been used for the Taishan vessels.<\/p>\n

The French nuclear safety authorities said they will take until the end of the year to decide whether the material used in the reactor pressure vessel\u2014which are clearly below technical specifications\u2014is acceptable from a safety point of view. The Chinese authorities\u2019 attitude towards this issue will be under close international scrutiny.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSource: World Nuclear Industry Status Report (or simply WNISR), MSC, 2016<\/em><\/p>\n

The relatively high number of grid connections in 2015 is clearly a result of decisions taken in China pre-Fukushima. In 2009, China launched seven of the nine new nuclear construction projects in the world that year, and in 2010, ten out of 15.<\/p>\n

Since the Fukushima disaster, the number of construction starts plunged to three in 2014, of which none were in China. In fact, China has slowed the pace of reactor building.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s new nuclear<\/strong><\/p>\n

Between 2011\u20132015, China launched only three more units. Will the rhythm of reactor building pick up again? Can it be sustained over the years to come?<\/p>\n

Officially, during 2015, the Chinese government granted permission for the building of eight more reactors, the first ones to get the go-head after a four-year freeze. These include licences for two units in Fangchenggang of south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, and a two-reactor expansion of the Tianwan nuclear power station in Lianyungang of east China’s Jiangsu province.<\/p>\n

Construction started on one unit at each site within days of the 16 December 2015 announcement by the State Council<\/a>.\u00a0It\u2019s a highly contested topic<\/a>, whether nuclear power plants should be built not only in coastal areas\u2014as are practically all of the current projects\u2014but also inland.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s nuclear exports<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is\u00a0also too early to say\u00a0whether the build-up of expertise and competence can be accelerated to the level needed to operate, fuel and maintain a rapidly growing nuclear reactor fleet. At the same time, the Chinese nuclear industry is aspiring to expand into foreign markets.<\/p>\n

Industrial giants China General Nuclear Power Group (CGN) and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) have proposed their yet-to-be-built Hualong One, a so-called Third Generation reactor design, to Argentina, Pakistan, South Africa, the UK, and even Kenya.<\/p>\n

It remains to be seen whether these projects can be technically implemented and proven commercially viable. After a rapid rise in the first half of 2015 on the Hong Kong stock exchange, CGN shares lost 60% of their value in six months.<\/p>\n

Credit-rating agencies have made it clear<\/a> that involvement in the Hinkley Point C project in the UK, now delayed again, is \u201ccredit negative\u201d for CGN, CNNC and the French EDF.<\/p>\n

\u201cFinancial catastrophe\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

The association of EDF employee-shareholders (EAS) called the Hinkley Point C<\/a> project \u201ca financial catastrophe foretold\u201d and asked the management to abandon the project. On 7\u00a0December 2015, Euronext ejected the French heavy weight \u00c9lectricit\u00e9 de France<\/a> (EDF), the largest nuclear utility in the world and \u201cpillar of the Paris Stock Exchange\u201d, from France\u2019s key stock market index, known as CAC40.<\/p>\n

Two days later, the trade union representatives at the Central Enterprise Committee of EDF\u2014unanimously and for the first time\u2014launched an official \u201ceconomic alert procedure<\/a>\u201d considering the \u201cseriousness of the situation\u201d.<\/p>\n

In the third week of 2016, EDF and Areva shares hit a historic low, a drop of 87%\u00a0and 95% respectively from their values eight years ago. The French government\u2019s January 27 decision to inject \u20ac5\u00a0billion into the bleeding Areva Group will likely only provide short-term pain relief.<\/p>\n

While the Chinese stock-market plunge clearly played a role in the latest downward trend, it is clear that when the Chinese economy sneezes, the French nuclear industry catches a cold. That is all the more dangerous as the atomic giants were already sick.<\/p>\n

Mycle Schneider\u00a0is the lead author and publisher of the annual\u00a0World Nuclear Industry Status Report<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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