{"id":33599,"date":"2016-02-08T16:53:00","date_gmt":"2016-02-08T16:53:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-10-23T09:40:22","modified_gmt":"2020-10-23T09:40:22","slug":"8599-oil-oversupply-shale-bankruptcies-gas-leaks-and-a-whiff-of-securities-fraud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/8599-oil-oversupply-shale-bankruptcies-gas-leaks-and-a-whiff-of-securities-fraud\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil oversupply, shale bankruptcies, gas leaks, and a whiff of securities fraud"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

A Shell veteran of 35 years requests the company pension fund he depends on to divest from fossil fuels and reinvest in clean energy. A geoscientist currently working for an oil and gas major quits to take qualifications in renewable energy. These are the stories the latest two comments\u00a0on my website tell. The great global energy transition will play out in countless small dramas like this. But reminders of the over-arching global narrative, that we are in a race against time, are remorseless. And setbacks in the post-Paris world can be expected in parallel with steps forward, as the last fortnight illustrates all too well.<\/p>\n

The oil price has fallen below IUS$30 now: lower than it has been since 2013. The International Energy Agency\u00a0warns that the oil market may\u00a0\u201cdrown in oversupply\u201d<\/a>\u00a0in 2016. The Saudis keep pumping, the warm weather is depressing demand, Iran is re-entering the global market now that nuclear sanctions are over, and so on.<\/p>\n

Carbon Tracker has exhorted fossil fuel companies to\u00a0come clean on climate risks<\/a>, whatever the oil price, in a short report to the World Economic Forum in Davos. We are far from alone in professing that the post-Paris world requires this. PWC\u00a0leads the list of those also warning in January of\u00a0stranded-asset<\/a> risk<\/a>\u00a0in the oil and gas sector. The full disclosures that investors need in order to weight risk of stranded assets and other climate-related downsides should not be long coming. Michael Bloomberg has announced the membership of his\u00a0elite Climate Risk Disclosure Task Force<\/a>, which will include Unilever, Axa, Blackrock and JPMorgan. Anyone who reads the last few chapters of\u00a0The Winning of The Carbon War<\/em>\u00a0can have little doubt about the likely tenor of their recommendations, due in March.<\/p>\n

All of which should auger well for the progressive diversion of capital from fossil fuels to clean energy that is hard-wired into the Paris Agreement.\u00a0Standard & Poor\u2019s\u00a0estimates that US<\/a>$16.5 trillion of new investment<\/a>\u00a0in renewables, clean technology and green finance<\/a> will be triggered by the terms of the treaty. The International Renewable Energy Agency\u00a0estimates that\u00a0global GDP will rise roughly 1.1%<\/a>\u00a0if renewables account for 36% of the world\u2019s energy mix by 2030, as they should if we are to be on track for the Paris goal of well under 2C of global warming.<\/p>\n

Progress reports in late January encourage faith in this trajectory. Solar power costs have dropped to a\u00a0record low of 6 cents per kilowatt hour<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0Rajasthan,\u00a0a price that matches electricity from coal and gas. Cost-down in storage is also looking encouraging, with the 3 gigawatts in operation or under development around the world prompting\u00a0analysts IHS\u00a0to predict a significant\u00a0imminent rise in deployment<\/a>. More than 50 major corporations have pledged\u00a0100% renewable\u00a0energy use, and in Davos they announced they are\u00a0half way to their collective target<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, however, threats to progress on the Paris agenda pile up. The low oil price has pushed many stock markets into\u00a0bear market<\/a>\u00a0territory \u2013 a fall of 20% or more from their most recent peak. This, plus the stuttering global economy, and fears of a Chinese financial meltdown, caused a degree of pessimism in Davos. Some analysts voiced fears of a slide into\u00a0global recession<\/a>\u00a0of the kind seen in 2008.<\/p>\n

Fresh from their triumph in Paris, the French government is urging fellow governments to keep the momentum going on climate change, with the next target being signature of the treaty by world leaders in April. \u201cEverything is done, yet nothing is done\u201d,\u00a0said\u00a0Laurence Tubiana<\/a>, France\u2019s chief climate diplomat. She admits to being\u00a0unsure what impact current fears about the global economy will have.<\/p>\n

Some incumbency corporations and many investors barrel on as though nothing has changed.\u00a0Shell\u2019s takeover of BG\u00a0has received a\u00a0green light from investors<\/a>, with 83% of Shell shareholders voting for the deal. In order to do this, they would have had to to persuade themselves that they can afford to ignore both climate risk and the risk of a prolonged low oil price. Mark Van Baal, who leads a group of 1,000 small shareholders who voted against the deal, said: \u201cThere are a lot of better ways to spend \u20ac50bn. We are afraid of Shell being the\u2009new Kodak.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Shell retiree who commented on my website appreciates both points. He was Shell\u2019s first head of renewable energy.<\/p>\n

There is bad news everywhere\u00a0for the oil and gas industry. 42 American shale drillers have now gone bankrupt. Some\u00a0can\u2019t even give their assets away<\/a>, Bloomberg reports.\u00a0Harold Hamm,\u00a0a pioneer of shale drilling, told the FT that companies are simply going to stop producing, so US oil production must fall steeply this year. People may be\u00a0surprised by how fast<\/a>, he says.<\/p>\n

Shell and the other majors endlessly repeat their mantra that gas is much better than coal, in global warming terms. But who can easily believe this\u00a0any more? A massive gas leak, cause unknown, was discovered in a Californian storage well on\u00a0October 23<\/span>. It is still leaking unchecked, having become California\u2019s single biggest contributor to global warming. The Governor has declared a\u00a0state<\/a> of emergency<\/a>\u00a0over it. This is an extreme example, but the more scientists scrutinise gas leakage, right across the gas value-chain from wellhead to consumer end-use, the more worrying a picture they are finding, as my book chronicles. There is\u00a0scant oversight<\/a>\u00a0of storage wells, and until recently very little monitoring of US fracking either. When the monitoring is finally done properly gas could yet end up worse than coal in\u00a0greenhouse terms.<\/p>\n

And even if it doesn\u2019t, aiming to hit a 1.5\u02daC global warming ceiling with \u201chighest possible ambition\u201d, as the Paris Agreement requires, means large-scale\u00a0bypassing of gas en route direct from coal to renewables. Climate scientists are very clear on this.<\/p>\n

Consistent with his desire for climate change to be a meaningful legacy of his administration, President Obama is now launched a\u00a0regulatory crackdown<\/a>\u00a0on methane emissions from oil and gas drilling on federal land. Energy industry groups have condemned the \u201cavalanche\u201d of regulations now descending on them, but the President seems to be on a roll with his climate mission. A US appeals court\u00a0declined to block his carbon-constraint plan<\/a>\u00a0from power plants. States led by West Virginia \u201chave not satisfied stringent requirements\u201d to put a judicial stay on regulation, a judge has ruled. And in California, legislators have voted in a raft of measures expanding the solar market.<\/p>\n

Clearly the number two greenhouse-gas emitter is making some progress post-Paris. So is the number one emitter. China\u2019s carbon dioxide\u00a0emissions likely fell 3%<\/a>\u00a0in 2015, a trend analysts say looks set to continue. Among other positive developments, the Chinese government has announced that it will allocate $4.6bn to\u00a0shut 4,300 coal mines<\/a>\u00a0over the next three years.<\/p>\n

Some countries are pursuing energy policies totally inconsistent with\u00a0the commitments they made in adopting the Paris Agreement. The UK leads this list.\u00a0Bloomberg\u00a0reports that British renewable energy industries are\u00a0set to \u201cfall off a cliff\u201d<\/a>\u00a0as a result of the Conservatives\u2019 active effort to boost support for\u00a0fracked shale gas and nuclear meanwhile withdrawing support from renewables and energy efficiency. Cuts to wind subsidies will mean the UK will lose at least one gigawatt of renewable energy generation over the next five years. To make the point, RWE\u00a0has\u00a0cancelled \u00a31 billion<\/a>\u00a0of onshore wind investments, blaming policy setbacks.<\/p>\n

David Cameron\u2019s government is showering the energy incumbency with money. He announced a\u00a0\u00a3250 million bailout<\/a>\u00a0to prop up the North Sea oil and gas industry, is intent on major giveaways to promote fracking, and has essentially written an open cheque in the multiple billions needed to force the Hinkley Point C reactor through.<\/p>\n

Like Shell and its investors, the government seems incapable of reading some very clear writing on walls. A Conservative MP was forced by his constituents to\u00a0resign from a Parliamentary shale gas group<\/a>\u00a0because it is funded by the oil and gas industry. This gives a clear feeling for\u00a0the opposition shale drillers\u00a0will encounter in the Tory shires, never mind the leakage rates of methane from their operations.<\/p>\n

As for Hinkley Point C, the drama is akin to watching a train wreck in slow motion. EDF, the aspiring operator, was supposed to finalise funding this month at a board meeting. The\u00a0decision was delayed<\/a>, amid fears that the company cannot afford the billions required. EDF\u2019s\u00a0own workforce has begged it not to go ahead, openly voicing\u00a0fears that this, the most expensive power plant in the world, will bankrupt the company notwithstanding the billions invested by the British and Chinese governments.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, as the UK government flogs the doomed horses of shale and nuclear, and sabotages clean energy in an effort to give investors no choice but to join them, the CBI\u00a0warns that\u00a0the threat of a national power crisis is growing<\/a>.<\/p>\n

All the while, the planetary thermostat reminds us of the clock ticking. 2015\u00a0shattered the global temperature record<\/a>\u00a0by a wide margin, the Met Office\u00a0reported. The world\u2019s oceans\u00a0warmed at an increasingly fast rate<\/a>, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u00a0warned. Sea level rise from ocean warming\u00a0has been underestimated<\/a>, German scientists\u00a0professed.<\/p>\n

The science of climate change has become a matter of legal liability risk for oil and gas companies in recent months. Investigative journalists have uncovered evidence that they lied about the impacts of global warming in public whilst planning to adapt their infrastructure to its effects in private, as I describe in my book. In January, California\u2019s Attorney General launched an investigation into whether Exxon Mobil\u00a0repeatedly lied to the public and its shareholders<\/a>\u00a0about the risk to its business from climate change. At issue is whether such actions could amount to securities fraud. California joins New York, whose Attorney General began investigating\u00a0Exxon Mobil last November with a view to\u00a0to\u00a0possible criminal charges.<\/a><\/p>\n

Shell is\u00a0under suspicion<\/a>\u00a0too.\u00a0In 1989, the company redesigned a US$3-billion North Sea natural gas platform, fearing sea levels would\u00a0rise as a result of global warming. In the 1990s, it joined the Global Climate Coalition, an oil, gas and coal lobby group dedicated to defusing concern about climate change and stalling the climate negotiations.<\/p>\n

Retirees\u00a0in oil industry pension funds will be watching closely, no doubt, as their former employers wrestle with climate risk in 2016. Risk of all sorts.\u00a0Even if Shell\u2019s \u20ac50 billion acquisition of BG turns out to make shareholders money in the short term \u2013 an increasingly unlikely prospect in the post-Paris world \u2013 there is surely risk now that any\u00a0profit will be wiped out by court fines and brand\u00a0damage in a world looking back in anger.<\/p>\n

\u200bThis post originally appeared on Jeremy Leggett’s\u00a0blog<\/a>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Guest blogger Jeremy Leggett shares his view<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1602,"featured_media":58479,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758,757],"tags":[513,520,544,547,556,570,585,597],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-33599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-energy","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-coal","tag-finance","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-infrastructure","tag-nuclear","tag-renewables","tag-technology"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOil oversupply, shale bankruptcies, gas leaks, and a whiff of securities fraud | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Guest blogger Jeremy Leggett shares his view\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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