{"id":33829,"date":"2016-04-18T10:48:00","date_gmt":"2016-04-18T10:48:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-10-20T08:49:34","modified_gmt":"2020-10-20T08:49:34","slug":"8829-can-airlines-cap-their-carbon-emissions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/pollution\/8829-can-airlines-cap-their-carbon-emissions\/","title":{"rendered":"Can airlines cap their carbon emissions? \u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rather notoriously, aviation\u2019s growing contribution to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs)\u00a0hasn’t been\u00a0included in UNFCCC<\/a> agreements, including the deal signed in Paris last December.<\/span><\/p>\n

For at least a decade, the sector has come under increasing pressure from policymakers, particularly the EU, to come up with an effective method of capping GHG emissions\u00a0from the world\u2019s growing fleet of commercial aircraft.<\/p>\n

Proposals expected in October<\/a> from the UN\u2019s aviation body, which is tasked with coming up with a solution, will need to be transparent and feasible in multiple jurisdictions.<\/p>\n

Under those proposals, the UN body \u2013 the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) \u2013 is expected to recommend a market-based measure (MBM) to help cap emissions<\/a> from their level in 2020.<\/p>\n

If aviation’s emissions\u00a0were compared with\u00a0a country’s, the sector\u00a0would be a top-ten emitter of CO2 \u2013 and its contribution\u00a0is expected\u00a0to treble in the coming years as tens of thousands of new large aircraft take to the skies.<\/span><\/p>\n

While the aviation sector will draw on other tools, such as better air traffic management, more efficient aircraft, and sustainable low-carbon biofuels, these haven\u2019t yielded much to date, and likely can\u2019t close aviation\u2019s emissions gap.<\/p>\n

Campaigners<\/a> are highlighting that the targets included in the\u00a0Paris Agreement<\/a> mean\u00a0that global emissions, including aviation\u2019s, will have to decline steeply if the world is to limit warming to 1.5-2C\u00a0above pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n

A successful market-based measure, such as the use of UN-issued\u00a0carbon offsets<\/a>,\u00a0could make the difference, says proponents.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

How would it work?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

It would start with a cap, set at 2020 levels, on the sector\u2019s total CO2 emissions. Airlines would try to reduce emissions themselves. Those that emit more could purchase emission reductions (such as carbon credits)\u00a0from other sectors that have cut emissions below specified levels.<\/span><\/p>\n

Over time, the cap would ratchet down, in keeping with the Paris goal. Airlines\u2019 investments would promote greater energy efficiency in aircraft \u2013 and, through the use of verified carbon offsets \u2013 support sustainable low-carbon development outside the sector.<\/p>\n

For example, an airline could invest in helping farmers<\/a> in\u00a0China cut methane pollution<\/a> from agricultural waste\u00a0by converting to biogas fuels.<\/p>\n

The resulting emission reductions could help offset the airline\u2019s emissions and generate new income for the farmers. An airline could help city-dwellers switch to carbon-free energy sources; the reductions could help offset the airline\u2019s carbon emissions and combat urban air pollution.<\/p>\n

What stands in the way of agreement?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The MBM sounds like a great idea. But to meet the target of finalising the MBM by the close of ICAO\u2019s 2016 Assembly<\/a>, governments need to fashion an agreement that solves five highly problematic issues:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \n

    Setting a level for the 2020 emissions cap;<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  2. \n

    Finding a fair way of distributing the burden of meeting that\u00a0cap;<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  3. \n

    Measuring\u00a0emissions to ensure the cap is met;<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  4. \n

    What kinds of emissions units airlines can use to offset emissions above the cap;<\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n

  5. \n

    A timetable on how\u00a0often the programme will be reviewed. <\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    International civil aviation agreed on the 2020 cap back in 2009.<\/a> The 2013 ICAO Assembly adopted a resolution recognising the cap, committing to finalise the MBM by 2016, and affirming the principle of non-discrimination established under the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation. Under\u00a0that convention, different carriers competing on the same routes should not be subject to differential regulation in ways that would distort markets.<\/p>\n

    China voiced its disapproval of\u00a0such a\u00a0cap, adding that\u00a0\u201cwithout differentiated responsibilities will impede the future development of international aviation of developing countries.\u201d While China supported emission reduction goals for the sector, it said \u201cdeveloped countries should take the lead in taking reduction measures in order to offset the growth in emissions from international aviation of developing countries.\u201d \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    How to achieve carbon-neutral growth from 2020, while differentiating, and without distorting markets, is the central challenge for the ICAO Assembly. In principle the MBM could hold each airline responsible for offsetting its own emissions above 2020 levels, or for offsetting an amount proportional to the industry\u2019s average emissions above 2020.<\/p>\n

    But these methods don\u2019t provide much differentiation. Another possibility is that in light of the national commitments<\/a> made in\u00a0Paris, each aviation nation could put forward its own nationally determined aviation contribution.<\/p>\n

    But that could generate market distortion, not to mention a regulatory patchwork \u2013 which is just what China and others objected to when the EU, in 2013, regulated flights in and out of Europe under its emissions trading system.<\/p>\n

    Others have suggested providing differentiation by exempting large groups of countries from the MBM. \u00a0But that would punch holes in the emissions cap, without addressing differentiation among covered countries.<\/p>\n

    Another option would be to keep the 2020 cap for all, but set each geographic region\u2019s share of the global offset obligation proportional to that region\u2019s share of global traffic.<\/p>\n

    Proportionate?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    This would provide differentiation, since historically undeserved regions would have smaller shares of the offset obligation, while historically high-traffic regions would shoulder a larger share.<\/p>\n

    Within each region, each operator\u2019s offset obligation would be set in proportion to its share of regional traffic. \u00a0This would ensure no discrimination on routes within each region. And the system would be updated regularly to take into account changes in regional growth and shifts in airline market share.<\/p>\n

    Whether such an approach could help countries reach agreement remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

    Measuring emissions <\/strong><\/p>\n

    Nations will need to agree on transparent rules for measuring and reporting the emissions of all flights covered by the MBM. Such rules need not be onerous; airlines already measure fuel burn for economic and safety reasons.<\/p>\n

    So what kinds of emissions units can airlines use? \u00a0ICAO is an aviation body, not an emissions body. So it is unlikely ICAO will establish its own out-of-sector emission reduction programmes.\u00a0But ICAO could adopt criteria that emissions unit programmes would need to meet to provide emissions units to market mechanisms.<\/p>\n

    To ensure a level flying field, those criteria would need to be mandatory. And steps must be taken to ensure that the emissions units haven\u2019t already been claimed toward meeting a country\u2019s emissions limitation obligations under other commitments, for example\u00a0Paris.<\/p>\n

    Transparency<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Full and transparent review of the programme every three to five years will be essential to ensure that it is operating effectively, and over time to ratchet the cap down in line with the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

    Taken together, the \u201cbig five\u201d make the MBM a tall order for ICAO. The UN’s aviation arm\u00a0has managed to develop some 10,000 standards over the years \u2013 but the MBM is shaping up to be one of its biggest challenges. Whether it will meet this challenge is not clear. But what is apparent\u00a0is that the aviation industry\u2019s licence to grow depends on how it deals with its carbon footprint.\u00a0And that puts the spotlight on ICAO and its 2016 assembly to achieve the real deal in a transparent manner.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Aviation\u2019s upcoming proposals on a carbon\u00a0cap will have to solve five tricky problems, writes Annie Petsonk<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2397,"featured_media":58647,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[760],"tags":[513],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-33829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pollution","tag-carbon-emissions"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCan airlines cap their carbon emissions? \u00a0 | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Aviation\u2019s upcoming proposals on a carbon\u00a0cap will have to solve five tricky problems, writes Annie Petsonk\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/pollution\/8829-can-airlines-cap-their-carbon-emissions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can airlines cap their carbon emissions? 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