{"id":34021,"date":"2016-06-17T12:36:00","date_gmt":"2016-06-17T12:36:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-10-09T15:07:45","modified_gmt":"2020-10-09T15:07:45","slug":"9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/","title":{"rendered":"Paris Agreement, six months on: What’s changed?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Six months and a couple of days ago, 195 countries hadn\u2019t yet agreed\u00a0a global deal<\/a> under which all would constrain their greenhouse gas emissions; and we weren\u2019t entirely sure that they would.<\/p>\n

The tension, in the converted aircraft hangar on the outskirts of Paris which hosted the UN climate summit, was considerable; would the brilliantly managed process crumble like a piece of overdone French toast at the final moment?<\/p>\n

If it did, would we see another attempt to secure a global climate deal within the current generation?<\/p>\n

Then, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius\u00a0brought his gavel delightedly down<\/a>. The deal was done, and a new era dawned.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s fair to say that interpretations of that deal made just over six months ago on 12 December 2015 vary widely. For some, it changed little; the\u00a0radical end of the green movement argues<\/a>\u00a0that it will do nothing to prevent dangerous climate impacts,\u00a0while brown movement commentators insist<\/a>\u00a0that developing countries will not follow through on the pledges they made.<\/p>\n

However, there is also\u00a0a broad middle-ground consensus<\/a>\u00a0that actually, the Paris Agreement is worth the paper it was printed on; that while it didn\u2019t \u2018solve\u2019 climate change, it will make a meaningful impact on carbon emissions, accelerate investment in low-carbon technologies, raise the perceived risks of fossil fuel investments, unleash financial and technical assistance for poor countries, and build a new confidence behind international climate action.<\/p>\n

So\u2026 six months on, who\u2019s right?<\/p>\n

See also: Paris Agreement gives hope in fight against climate change<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Signing the future<\/strong><\/p>\n

On a formal level,\u00a0174 nations signed the Agreement<\/a>\u00a0as soon as it opened for signature two months ago at UN headquarters. That didn\u2019t just break but smash the record for the first-day signing of a UN agreement (for anoraks everywhere, it previously stood at 119 for the Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982). By any standards, that\u2019s some fair degree of political endorsement.<\/p>\n

However, collecting signatures doesn\u2019t bring the Agreement into force. For that, at least 55 countries accounting for at least 55% of global emissions need to adopt it formally by whatever method each country uses (such as ratification by a parliament).<\/p>\n

To date,\u00a0just 17 countries have formally adopted<\/a>\u00a0the Agreement, and they account for less than 1% of global emissions.<\/p>\n

However, the\u00a0European Commission<\/a>\u00a0and individual European nations intend to get the job done as soon as possible \u2013\u00a0Hungary already has<\/a>, and France\u00a0intends to join it tomorrow<\/a>.<\/p>\n

More importantly, Indian President Narendra Modi and his US counterpart Barack Obama have vowed<\/a>\u00a0to join the party this year (the latter stimulated by the prospect of one Donald J Trump following him into the Oval Office); and more importantly still,\u00a0so has China<\/a>. So, entry into force this year looks more likely than not.<\/p>\n

Governments agreed the Paris deal largely because it reflected what\u2019s happening in their countries anyway. So it should come as no surprise to find that the low-carbon transition is alive and well in different corners of the world.<\/p>\n

For Pacific island states, the decision to go large on renewable energy isn\u2019t just a mark of concern about climate change, it\u2019s economic good sense when otherwise you have to import fossil fuels from thousands of miles away. Nevertheless, whoever said \u2018developing countries will never give up fossil fuels\u2019 clearly hasn\u2019t been paying attention to the Cook Islands (on track<\/a>\u00a0to obtain all of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020), Tuvalu (the same goal<\/a>) or Samoa (due to reach the 100% renewable electricity milestone next year<\/a>).<\/p>\n

The trumpets of Paris have, though, sounded loudest in East Asia.<\/p>\n

In January, Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung stunned observers\u00a0by announcing<\/a>\u00a0his government would review its development plans for coal, apparently citing the Paris Agreement as the driver (\u2018following strictly international commitments on cutting emission and promoting the development of renewable energy.\u2019)<\/p>\n

Like Ronald Reagan\u2019s worst nightmare, this set off something like a low-carbon domino effect in neighbouring countries. In March, the Chinese government\u00a0told<\/a>\u00a013 provinces to halt approvals for new coal-fired power stations, and told 15 to stop building ones that had already been approved. A month later came\u00a0news<\/a>\u00a0of plans to stop approvals for coal-fired plant in all but three provinces.<\/p>\n

Earlier this month, the incoming Philippines government\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0it would review plans to build dozens of coal-fired units; and now it\u2019s emerged that Indonesian President Joko Widodo\u00a0is also thinking again<\/a>, with 16GW of planned\u00a0coal capacity stalled by the government\u2019s desire to increase investment in renewables. China and Indonesia are scaling back coal mining too \u2013 and so is India.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s hard to argue that the Paris Agreement is solely responsible. Usage rates of coal-fired plants\u00a0have been going down in China and India<\/a>\u00a0because there\u2019s too much capacity, so a slowdown would have been expected even without the UN deal.<\/p>\n

But equally, it\u2019s not a negligible factor. Lenders, particularly regional development banks, are feeling new pressure to make their lending decisions compatible with the Paris Agreement target of keeping global warming \u2018well below\u2019 2 Celsius.<\/p>\n

And for China, there\u2019s a special incentive; Paris confirms that the world is on track to a low-carbon future, and\u00a0China wants to build a lot of the low-carbon stuff<\/a>\u00a0that other countries will need. Investing at home \u2013 walking the walk \u2013 therefore makes even more sense than it did before December\u2019s deal.<\/p>\n

Business as unusual<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the commercial sector, long before the Paris summit many businesses were already moving towards becoming entirely reliant on renewable energy.<\/p>\n

But since then, more have joined up.\u00a0They include<\/a>\u00a0food processing and packaging multinational TetraPak, advertising, media and marketing group Dentsu Aegis, and, perhaps most remarkably,\u00a0Tata Motors<\/a>, the giant Indian car manufacturer.<\/p>\n

In Britain, Mars products are now made using entirely renewable energy.<\/p>\n

But across all of the corporates, the most remarkable change since December is in oil and gas, where \u2013 for the first time \u2013 two of the world\u2019s giants,\u00a0Shell<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Total<\/a>, published scenarios for future energy use consistent with global warming of 2C.<\/p>\n

The scenarios have holes, and other oil giants didn\u2019t join them; but this is already a profound change from previous years.<\/p>\n

In large part it\u2019s happened because climate change campaigners, encouraged by the Paris outcome, have doubled and redoubled their efforts to reform oil and gas companies. If they have their way, the companies will come a lot further very soon; expect every year\u2019s AGM season to throw up new shareholder\u00a0resolutions on climate and investment\u00a0risks.<\/p>\n

Does all this add up to a world changed enough to reach the \u2018well below 2C\u2019 target enshrined in the Paris Agreement? As yet, no. But equally, it\u2019s surely impossible to look back with an open mind and argue that the Agreement changed nothing.<\/p>\n

As far as I could tell through my hangover, the world looked very different on the morning after. Six months on, it still does.<\/p>\n

The original version of this article was published on eciu.net and can be found here<\/a>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Richard Black reflects on the first six months of the new era of global climate action<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2475,"featured_media":58787,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[544,569],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-34021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-finance","tag-negotiations"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nParis Agreement, six months on: What's changed? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Richard Black reflects on the first six months of the new era of global climate action\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Paris Agreement, six months on: What's changed?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Richard Black reflects on the first six months of the new era of global climate action\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-06-17T12:36:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-10-09T15:07:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/unfccc-3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"640\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"427\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Richard Black\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Richard Black\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/f06bf2f33e02fc477015d6a2b42e0ed4\"},\"headline\":\"Paris Agreement, six months on: What’s changed?\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-06-17T12:36:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-10-09T15:07:45+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\"},\"wordCount\":1185,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/unfccc-3.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Finance\",\"Negotiations\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Climate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\",\"name\":\"Paris Agreement, six months on: What's changed? | Dialogue Earth\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/unfccc-3.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2016-06-17T12:36:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-10-09T15:07:45+00:00\",\"description\":\"Richard Black reflects on the first six months of the new era of global climate action\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9021-paris-agreement-six-months-on-what-s-changed\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/unfccc-3.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/unfccc-3.jpg\",\"width\":640,\"height\":427,\"caption\":\"Applause after the Paris climate agreement was reached. 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