{"id":34532,"date":"2017-01-05T16:32:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-05T16:32:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-09-22T18:06:39","modified_gmt":"2020-09-22T18:06:39","slug":"9532-china-raises-its-low-carbon-ambitions-in-new-2-2-targets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9532-china-raises-its-low-carbon-ambitions-in-new-2-2-targets\/","title":{"rendered":"China raises its low carbon ambitions in new 2020 targets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

China\u2019s 13th Five-Year-Plan on Energy Development (Energy 13FYP) might be one of the most anticipated energy blueprints in the world for its far-reaching implications for the carbon trajectory of the planet\u2019s largest emitter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Jan 5, 2017, the National Energy Administration finally unveiled the plan<\/a> to reporters, with a set of 2020 targets covering everything from total energy consumption to installed wind energy capacity. Before we delve into details of the plan, one thing is worth noting: with the Energy 13FYP, China might have once again raised ambitions for its low-carbon future, highlighting the urgency that this smog-ridden country attaches to moving away from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s with all the FYPs?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our readers may remember that in March, China unveiled its 13th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development (2016-2020), which contains a set of climate and energy related targets<\/a>, including an energy consumption cap and a 15% goal for the share of non-fossil-based energy in the country\u2019s primary energy mix. So what\u2019s the connection between this plan and the Energy 13FYP?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we consider this the \u201cMaster Plan\u201d for all aspects of China\u2019s development in the next five year period (2016 \u2013 2020), then the Energy 13FYP is the breakdown of that Master Plan for the energy sector, with more detailed targets to better guide policymaking, government spending and project planning in the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chart below illustrates the hierarchy of Chinese government planning; the Energy 13FYP is designated a \u201cspecial plan\u201d for a specific sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>
Courtesy of WWF China, \u201cThe 12th Five Year Plan: the formulation of China\u2019s major plans and programmes 2008-2010 and onwards\u201d<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s in the Energy 13FYP?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The table illustrates the numerous 2020 targets already announced by the Chinese government in its Strategic Energy Action Plan (2014-2020) and its national 13th Five-Year Plan. They are cross-referenced with actual levels at the end of 2015. Comparing these to the latest targets is a way of gauging changes to the scale of ambition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2020 Targets<\/strong><\/th>SEAP (2014-2020)<\/strong><\/th>National 13FYP<\/strong><\/th>National 13FYP<\/strong><\/th>2015 actual levels<\/strong><\/th><\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
Total energy consumption cap<\/td>about 4.8Gtce
<\/td>		5Gtce<\/td>no more than 5Gtce<\/td>4.3Gtce




<\/td>		<\/td><\/tr>
Energy consumption per unit of GDP<\/td>N\/A<\/td>-15% from 2015 level<\/td>N\/A<\/td>-18.2% from 2010 level<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
CO2 emissions per unit of GDP<\/td>
N\/A<\/td>		-18% from 2015 level<\/td>N\/A<\/td>-20% from 2010 level<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Percentage of coal in primary energy consumption<\/td>62%<\/td>N\/A<\/td>less than 58%<\/td>64%<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Percentage of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption<\/td>15%<\/td>15%<\/td>more than 15%<\/td>12%<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Wind energy installed capacity<\/td>200GW<\/td>N\/A<\/td>more than 210GW<\/td>129GW<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Solar energy installed capacity<\/td>100GW<\/td>N\/A<\/td>more than 110GW<\/td>43GW<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Hydro energy installed capacity<\/td>350GW<\/td>N\/A<\/td>380GW<\/td>320GW<\/td><\/td><\/tr>
Coal energy installed capacity<\/td>N\/A<\/td>N\/A<\/td>less than 1100GW<\/td>900GW<\/td><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From this comparison, it appears that most of the Energy 13FYP targets are not entirely \u201cnew\u201d. Many are in line with the existing thinking of previous announcements, in particular the Strategic Energy Action Plan (2014-2020), which, at the time of its publication was already considered ambitious<\/a> in curbing coal consumption and CO2 emissions beyond international expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this time round, policymakers seem even more determined to squeeze out coal\u2019s share in the country\u2019s energy mix, lowering its 2020 percentage in primary energy consumption from 62% to 58%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The country is also aiming higher for renewables: installed capacity of wind energy and solar energy should reach \u201cmore than 210GW\u201d and \u201cmore than 110GW\u201d, respectively, by 2020; higher than what was declared at the end of 2014.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A quick look back at the progress of China\u2019s energy targets since the 2009 Copenhagen climate summit, it is clear that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n