{"id":34894,"date":"2017-07-03T09:58:00","date_gmt":"2017-07-03T09:58:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-19T10:23:27","modified_gmt":"2020-06-19T10:23:27","slug":"9894-merkel-has-to-play-her-cards-right-at-the-g2-summit-in-hamburg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9894-merkel-has-to-play-her-cards-right-at-the-g2-summit-in-hamburg\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8216;Merkel has to play her cards right at the G20 summit in Hamburg&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>German Chancellor Angela Merkel can still hope to achieve substantial progress in climate protection as she enters difficult talks with the leaders of the world\u2019s largest economies at this week\u2019s G20 summit in Hamburg, John J Kirton tells the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cleanenergywire.org\/\">Clean Energy Wire<\/a> in an interview.<\/p>\n<p>Kirton is co-director and founder of the G20\u00a0<span id=\"docs-internal-guid-131f6d93-07e0-b061-75e4-e44008042035\">Research Group, a global network of scholars, students, and professionals following the work of the G20 leaders. The Research Group is directed from Trinity College and the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: After the NATO and G7 summits, \u00a0Chancellor Merkel showed her frustration with the negotiations and said that \u00a0Europe must take its fate into its own hands. \u00a0Is US President Donald Trump single-handedly changing \u00a0the way international politics, diplomacy, or the G20 process in particular work?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 250px; height: 270px; float: left; margin: 3px;\" src=\"https:\/\/chinadialogue-production.s3.amazonaws.com\/uploads\/content_image\/content_image\/2877\/johnkirton1.png\" alt=\"\" \/>John Kirton<\/strong>: He certainly is the most unpredictable, inexperienced, and hence unreliable US president we\u2019ve seen since the end of the Second World War. That makes the Hamburg summit a greater challenge of a new sort\u00a0than any other G20 summit before. All of the G20 partners that come to Hamburg have the same problem with Trump: you really just don\u2019t know what his position will be on many issues when he arrives, or indeed starts talking. One must look beyond the endless array of unpredictable tweets to identify the key consistency in his position flowing from his genuinely held personal beliefs, as well as the campaign promises that put him in the White House.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-131f6d93-07e0-b061-75e4-e44008042035\">One of these, quite fundamental, is a deep belief that the multilateral trade system is unfair for the United States, and particularly for the American workers who are a core part of his political base. So, multilateral trade, in which Germany and many other countries have long believed, is a genuine point of disagreement. He\u2019s long had doubts about the science behind climate change, which is another neuralgic issue dividing Merkel and Trump that also sets other participants in the G20 on a collision course.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>But there are many other areas of consensus on both sides of the Atlantic: are they united in the fight against terrorism in Europe, the United States, Syria, and elsewhere? Are they united on women\u2019s economic empowerment as a source of strong, sustainable, inclusive growth? Are they largely united on the need to invest in infrastructure at home, and to some degree in Africa too? So the great challenge for Chancellor Merkel when they sit down for sessions in Hamburg is to find a way to steer the discussion from the start toward all the things that she and President Trump agree on.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: The German G20 presidency has made climate one of the group\u2019s \u00a0priorities. Now, after \u00a0the US decision to pull out of the Paris \u00a0Agreement, what can Germany hope to achieve at the summit?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>JK<\/strong>: A great deal, if Merkel plays her cards right. Let\u2019s face it: Paris is a side show. Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented 100% by all the parties to it, including the federal government of the United States, it was designed to fail. We wouldn\u2019t hit the 2 degrees Celsius reduction target it set, let alone 1.5 degrees. We would all fry and die from climate change. What the Hamburg summit needs to do, and what the Trump administration has not been doing at home, even before it pulled out of Paris, is to take concrete measures, including regulatory ones, to really combat and control climate change.<\/p>\n<div class=\"factbox pull-right\"><\/div>\n<p>So if Merkel can focus at the Hamburg summit on agreeing a specific array of climate controlling measures, even by another name, then much can be achieved. Measures in the fields of energy efficiency, advancing clean technology, building clean infrastructure, even specific moves against poisonous carbon pollutants \u2013 methane from natural gas, for example \u2013 or stronger regulations on the emissions of heavy trucks. It\u2019s California rather than Washington and the United States that will tip the balance here.<\/p>\n<p>And if the Hamburg summit could note the existence, and possible utility, of carbon pricing schemes \u2013 these would be several useful steps forward. The major one would be agreeing to finally do what the G20 leaders have all promised to do many years ago: end fossil fuel subsidies. And add \u2013 something they have not yet been able to do \u2013 the need to kill killer coal. Identifying coal as a deadly carbon pollutant is, of course, too much to ask Mr Trump at the summit, but ways can be found to move ahead on several other fronts.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: And what does this mean for the final communiqu\u00e9? Will the US again be left as a \u2018footnote\u2019 \u00a0in climate talks, as it happened at the G7 environment ministers\u2019 meeting? \u00a0Will there be a 19-1 solution? Is climate going to be dropped completely?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>JK<\/strong>: I\u2019m optimistic that there will be a meaningful all-twenty communiqu\u00e9 on measures that actually control climate change, as there was at the G7 summit in Taormina, Italy, with Donald Trump in full agreement there. The climate passages of that communiqu\u00e9 began with energy efficiency, and all agreed on those. It was only when they went on to talk about Paris that we saw the American dissent. We\u2019ve seen back in North America that the United States fully agreed with the communiqu\u00e9 issued by the Arctic Council that did speak of climate change \u2013 how it was a danger to the Arctic security. So the Trump administration is quite capable of noting the existence of climate change and that it\u2019s a national security threat, broadly defined, to the United States.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-131f6d93-07e0-b061-75e4-e44008042035\">The 20 can agree on energy efficiency, clean technology, clean infrastructure, but some leaders, particularly those close to Paris \u2013 Emmanuel Macron and Merkel herself \u2013 will probably need to say something about the Paris Agreement itself. That could be in a chair\u2019s statement, or a unilateral statement, perhaps with many other G20 leaders joining in on an ad hoc basis. After all, Merkel faces a general election in autumn and she knows that only 11% of German voters trust Donald Trump to make the right choices in world affairs. So she does have to respond to the views of the other 90 percent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Is it likely that \u00a0they will find a solution independent of the Paris \u00a0Agreement? Lately the public comments \u00a0by Merkel \u00a0have shown a clear commitment to the accord \u00a0and its implementation. Could this be dealt with in a separate statement by the summit\u2019s \u00a0chair?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>JK<\/strong>: That\u2019s one formula, but if you go back and look at the G7 and G20 summits of the past, you recurrently find the phrase \u2018those of us who agree on the value of nuclear power wish to do more of that\u2019. That left Germany out, because it didn\u2019t agree, but it was a collective statement by the whole group. It\u2019s possible to imagine a passage in the communiqu\u00e9 that says that \u2018those of us who are committed to the Paris Agreement agree on the need to fully implement all its provisions\u2019.<\/p>\n<p>The Hamburg summit could do for Donald Trump what several other G7 and G20 summits have done for Angela Merkel and Germany before. You don\u2019t even need to descend to a footnote at the bottom of the communiqu\u00e9, although that is possible, too. And even Canada had a little footnote of dissent inserted in the great G8 communiqu\u00e9 adopted at the Gleneagles summit in 2005. So, many a formula to solve the problem on paper, but the big question is whether Donald Trump will be in the mood to compromise from the moment the\u00a0<span id=\"docs-internal-guid-131f6d93-07e0-b061-75e4-e44008042035\">Hamburg summit starts. Angela Merkel is certainly both able and willing to find a common solution, and to give him as many off-ramps as he needs, but it\u2019s really up to him and the mood he\u2019ll be in the moment the summit starts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: Where do you see the future role of Germany in international climate policy in a broader sense, not only within the G20? Has the new US administration\u2019s position opened up new opportunities for Germany to step up and fill the gaps possibly left open by the US?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>JK<\/strong>: Yes, Germany must become a global leader on climate change control, and that requires doing two things. The first is to take all of those leaders from the G20 and beyond to say \u2018we\u2019re still deeply committed to Paris\u2019, and have them put their real measures and their money where their mouth is. Not just promise to implement it, but to improve their commitments right here, right now, to compensate for what Donald Trump is not doing anymore. But even if he were fully aboard, additional measures are required to solve the real problems in the real world.<\/p>\n<p>The second thing she has to do is engage with the US, the executive branch, and the White House to bring President Trump and those around him to their senses, before real climate change \u2013 extreme weather events, rising sea levels, heat waves, and droughts in the United States \u2013 will bring a considerable part of the American economy and the American national security infrastructure to their knees. The United States can\u2019t withstand many more Hurricane Katrinas, or super storm Sandies, and still continue to generate adequate economic growth. So it\u2019s too soon to give up on the executive branch of the United States, because we simply can\u2019t solve the real climate change problems until we bring them back and get them fully on board as fast as we can.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Q: What \u00a0about \u00a0\u201cnew alliances\u201d, for example between \u00a0Germany and China \u00a0or India? Are they new and could they fill the gap left open by the new US administration\u2019s policy?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>JK<\/strong>: Potentially. They are, of course, ad hoc coalitions rather than fixed alliances. And these are routine\u00a0occurrences in global climate politics and global politics as a whole. Variable architectures in which ad hoc coalitions of the willing \u2013 as George Bush\u2019s United States knew too well \u2013 get together and go off and do major things for good or ill. So, as a stopgap measure, yes, we need those groups not only to come together for a nice communiqu\u00e9 and a nice photo op, but to agree on really important, concrete things to do.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-131f6d93-07e0-b061-75e4-e44008042035\">The European Union, for example, simply has to get Poland to stop using coal; and Merkel herself needs to stop using coal to generate electricity in Germany as soon as possible. If the British can do it &#8211; and they have promised to do so very soon &#8211; and the Canadians before them, then Germany can, too. So she can come to the table with genuinely clean hands. She has launched an admirable major initiative, a partnership with Africa. She needs to mobilise many billions of dollars to be invested in Africa in clean, green, carbon-controlling infrastructure. She needs to bring energy access to Africa, not based on dirty coal-fired plants, but on renewables. And it is still within her power at the G20 in Hamburg, under Germany\u2019s <\/span>Compact with Africa, to get that done. And even Donald Trump\u2019s United States could well see why it should invest money in bringing energy access to Africa of a sustainable sort.<\/p>\n<p><span id=\"docs-internal-guid-131f6d93-07e0-b061-75e4-e44008042035\"><em>This article originally appeared on <\/em><\/span><em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cleanenergywire.org\/\">Clean Energy Wire<\/a> and is republished here with permission.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Founder of the G20\u00a0Research Group calls for concrete, regulatory\u00a0measures to combat climate change<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2581,"featured_media":59585,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[569,580],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-34894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-negotiations","tag-policy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>&#039;Merkel has to play her cards right at the G20 summit in Hamburg&#039; | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Founder of the G20\u00a0Research Group calls for concrete, regulatory\u00a0measures to combat climate change\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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