{"id":34925,"date":"2017-07-17T10:05:00","date_gmt":"2017-07-17T10:05:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-19T10:13:33","modified_gmt":"2020-06-19T10:13:33","slug":"9925-i-ve-studied-larsen-c-and-its-giant-iceberg-for-years-it-s-not-a-simple-story-of-climate-change","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/9925-i-ve-studied-larsen-c-and-its-giant-iceberg-for-years-it-s-not-a-simple-story-of-climate-change\/","title":{"rendered":"I\u2019ve studied Larsen C and its giant iceberg for years \u2013 it\u2019s not a simple story of climate\u00a0change"},"content":{"rendered":"

One of the largest icebergs ever recorded has just broken away from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica. Over the past few years I\u2019ve led a team that has been studying this ice shelf and monitoring change. We spent many weeks camped on the ice investigating melt ponds and their impact \u2013 and struggling to\u00a0<\/span>avoid sunburn<\/a>\u00a0thanks to the thin ozone layer. Our main approach, however, is to use\u00a0satellites<\/a>\u00a0to keep an eye on things.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve been surprised by the level of interest in what may simply be a rare but natural occurrence. Because, despite the media and public fascination, the Larsen C rift and iceberg \u201ccalving\u201d is not a warning of imminent sea level rise, and any link to climate change is far from straightforward. This event is, however, a spectacular episode in the recent history of Antarctica\u2019s ice shelves, involving forces beyond the human scale, in a place where few of us have been, and one which will fundamentally change the geography of this region.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
\nThe iceberg would barely fit inside Wales.<\/span>\u00a0(Image: Adrian Luckman \/ MIDAS,\u00a0Author provided)<\/p>\n

Ice shelves are found where glaciers meet the ocean and the climate is cold enough to sustain the ice\u00a0<\/span>as it goes afloat<\/a>. Located mostly around Antarctica, these floating platforms of ice a few hundred meters thick form natural barriers which slow the flow of glaciers into the ocean and thereby\u00a0regulate sea level rise<\/a>. In a warming world, ice shelves are of particular scientific interest because they are susceptible both to atmospheric warming from above and ocean warming from below.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a><\/span>
\nThe ice shelves of the Antarctic peninsula. Note Larsen A and B have largely disappeared. (Image:<\/span>\u00a0AJ Cook & DG Vaughan, 2014<\/a>,\u00a0CC BY-SA<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n

Back in the 1890s, a Norwegian explorer named Carl Anton Larsen sailed south down the Antarctic Peninsula, a 1,000km long branch of the continent that points towards South America. Along the east coast he discovered the huge ice shelf which took his name.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the following century, the shelf, or what we now know to be a set of distinct shelves \u2013 Larsen A, B, C and D \u2013 remained fairly stable. However the\u00a0sudden disintegrations<\/a>\u00a0of Larsen A and B in 1995 and 2002 respectively, and the\u00a0ongoing speed-up of glaciers<\/a>\u00a0which fed them, focused scientific interest on their much larger neighbour, Larsen C, the fourth biggest ice shelf in Antarctica.<\/p>\n

\"\"
\nThe rift in Larsen C taken from a\u00a0NASA research aircraft in 2016\u00a0(Image:\u00a0John<\/a>\u00a0Sonntag\u00a0\/ NASA<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n

This is why colleagues and I set out in 2014 to study\u00a0<\/span>the role of surface melt<\/a>\u00a0on the stability of this ice shelf. Not long into the project, the discovery by our colleague, Daniela Jansen, of\u00a0a rift growing rapidly through Larsen C<\/a>, immediately gave us something equally significant to investigate.<\/p>\n

Nature at work<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The development of rifts and the calving of icebergs is part of the natural cycle of an ice shelf. What makes this iceberg unusual is its size \u2013 at around 5,800 km\u00b2 it\u2019s the size of a small US state. There is also the concern that what remains of Larsen C will be susceptible to the same fate as Larsen B, and collapse almost entirely.<\/p>\n

\"Larsen
\nLarsen B once extended hundreds of kilometres over the ocean. Today, one of its glaciers runs straight into the sea.<\/span><\/span>\u00a0(Image: NSIDC\/Ted Scambos) <\/span><\/p>\n

Our work has highlighted\u00a0<\/span>significant similarities<\/a>\u00a0between the previous behaviour of Larsen B and current developments at Larsen C, and we have shown that stability may be compromised. Others, however, are confident that Larsen C\u00a0will remain stable<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What is not disputed by scientists is that it will take many years to know what will happen to the remainder of Larsen C as it begins to adapt to its new shape, and as\u00a0<\/span>the iceberg gradually drifts away and breaks up<\/a>. There will certainly be no imminent collapse, and unquestionably no direct effect on sea level because the iceberg is already afloat and displacing its own weight in seawater.<\/p>\n

This means that, despite\u00a0<\/span>much speculation<\/a>, we would have to look years into the future for ice from Larsen C to contribute significantly to sea level rise. In 1995 Larsen B underwent\u00a0a similar calving event<\/a>. However, it took a further seven years of gradual erosion of the ice-front before the ice shelf became\u00a0unstable enough to collapse<\/a>, and glaciers held back by it were able to\u00a0speed up<\/a>, and even then the collapse process may have depended on the presence of\u00a0surface melt ponds<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Even if the remaining part of Larsen C were to eventually collapse, many years into the future, the\u00a0<\/span>potential sea level<\/a>\u00a0rise is quite modest. Taking into account only the catchments of glaciers flowing into Larsen C, the total, even after decades, will probably be\u00a0less than a centimetre<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Is this a climate change signal?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This event has also been widely but over-simplistically\u00a0linked to climate change<\/a>. This is not surprising because notable changes in the earth\u2019s glaciers and ice sheets are normally associated with rising environmental temperatures. The collapses of Larsen A and B have previously been\u00a0linked to regional warming<\/a>, and the iceberg calving will leave Larsen C at its most retreated position in records going back over a hundred years.<\/p>\n

However, in satellite images from the 1980s, the rift was already clearly a long-established feature, and there is no direct evidence to link its recent growth to either atmospheric warming, which is not felt deep enough within the ice shelf, or ocean warming, which is an unlikely source of change given that most of Larsen C\u00a0<\/span>has recently been thickening<\/a>. It is probably too early to blame this event directly on human-generated climate change.<\/p>\n

This story originally appeared on <\/em><\/span>The Conversation<\/a> and is republished here with permission.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Antarctic\u00a0ice shelf has\u00a0broken off but what does this really mean for the\u00a0planet? Asks Adrian Luckman<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":59611,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[519],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-34925","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-climate-impacts"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nI\u2019ve studied Larsen C and its giant iceberg for years \u2013 it\u2019s not a simple story of climate\u00a0change | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Antarctic\u00a0ice shelf has\u00a0broken off but what does this really mean for the\u00a0planet? 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