{"id":35879,"date":"2018-10-30T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-10-30T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2021-11-18T14:37:16","modified_gmt":"2021-11-18T14:37:16","slug":"10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/","title":{"rendered":"Costs, risks and benefits: can carbon sequestration take off?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued its starkest warning yet on the urgency of tackling global warming in its \u201cSpecial Report on Global Warming of 1.5C<\/a>,\u201d saying that only 12 years remain to keep warming within that limit.<\/p>\n

\u201cWarming greater than the global annual average is being experienced in many land regions and seasons,\u201d the report said. Average global temperatures are already 1C above pre-industrial levels, with impacts that \u201cwill persist for centuries to millennia.\u201d<\/p>\n

The IPCC forecast,\u00a0with \u201chigh confidence\u201d, that 1.5C would be reached between 2030 and 2052.<\/p>\n

However, it could get much worse. Rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes to all aspects of society are needed if global warming is to be limited to 1.5C, according to the report\u2019s summary for policymakers<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe usually think the aim of international action on climate change is to avoid catastrophic risk. The IPCC\u2019s report warns of how real that risk is, and that we should get to zero net emissions as soon as possible,\u201d said Hu Min, executive director of the Innovative Green Development Program (iGDP)<\/a>, an NGO.<\/p>\n

Halting higher emissions<\/h2>\n

Global emissions must start to decline before 2030 to keep warming within 1.5C without reliance on carbon dioxide removal. However, current carbon intensity data indicates this is almost impossible, so large-scale removal of carbon dioxide will be needed to balance out emissions.<\/p>\n

The report says it will be necessary to remove 100 to 1,000 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during the 21st<\/sup> century to keep warming to 1.5C target. No single approach to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) can do this. The options include\u00a0 afforestation and reforestation, land restoration, soil carbon sequestration and carbon capture and storage (CCS).<\/p>\n

The IPCC\u2019s report emphasised CDR as there is no other choice, according to Chen Ying, a researcher at the Sustainable Development Economics Laboratory, part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Institute for Urban and Environmental Studies, speaking to chinadialogue.<\/em><\/p>\n

The report<\/a> provides four illustrative pathways (see below)\u00a0to the 1.5C target, indicating the different contributions from sources of carbon emissions or carbon capture over time. (The grey areas show emissions from fossil fuels and industry; brown areas, carbon emissions or capture by agriculture, forestry and other land uses; yellow areas, carbon capture by bioenergy plus\u00a0carbon capture and storage.)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

The last three scenarios all involve increasing use of carbon CCS over time.<\/p>\n

Nature versus technology<\/h2>\n

CDR (such as afforestation and soil carbon sequestration) mainly involves ways of absorbing carbon from the atmosphere. But carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS) work differently. They capture carbon from industrial emissions, especially where there are higher concentrations of carbon dioxide to make the complex process easier.<\/p>\n

CCS is essentially an emissions reduction technology. In China,\u00a0CCS developers have added an extra step \u2013 utilisation \u2013 to this emerging technology, known by the acronym CCUS. The aim is to turn carbon into a resource that enhances profitability.<\/p>\n

CCUS trials are mostly in the energy sector, for instance, in oil extraction and power generation. The hope is that in future CCUS could be combined with bioenergy, or that technologies capable of removing carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere can be developed.<\/p>\n

Will China bet on CCUS?<\/h2>\n

CCUS remains a trial technology. China built its first large-scale\u00a0demonstration<\/a> plant in 2017 in Yulin, Shaanxi\u00a0province, in the country’s northwest, as one of the outcomes<\/a> of the China-US Joint Statement on Climate Change.<\/p>\n

The project will capture 410,000 tonnes of carbon a year. It combines CCS with enhanced oil recovery (EOR), a system in which carbon dioxide is captured from a coal-fired power plant and injected into oil fields to boost levels of oil recovery. The gas is stored\u00a0underground and\u00a0thereby removed from the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has identified<\/a> the thermal power generation, coal-chemical, concrete and steel sectors as suitable for CCUS trials. And China\u2019s state-owned oil giants are getting more interested \u2013 CNPC and Sinopec both have dedicated research bodies looking at the possibilities.<\/p>\n

Large-scale CCS projects in China<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/a>(Data from the Global CCS Institute<\/a>)<\/span><\/p>\n

In September, China\u2019s Ministry of Ecological and Environmental Protection and its South African counterpart signed a memorandum of understanding<\/a> on cooperation in the climate change sector, under which the two countries will partner on the construction of climate-friendly energy projects, with priority given to CCUS.<\/p>\n

Jiang Kejuan, a senior researcher with the NDRC\u2019s Energy Research Institute and contributor\u00a0to the IPCC report said\u00a0that the China-South Africa partnership might build demonstration projects similar to the one at Yulin.<\/p>\n

During her visit to Beijing, South Africa\u2019s then Minister of Environmental Affairs, Edna Molewa, said<\/a> that \u201ccarbon capture is hugely expensive and we need more research and development into this cutting-edge technology\u201d.<\/p>\n

Jiang\u00a0said there is huge potential to increase efficiency and reduce costs.<\/p>\n

Liu Qiang, head of the energy research office at the CASS Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, said that in economic terms there is no market for CCS, and that any market created or price paid will arise from policy efforts to tackle climate change.<\/p>\n

CCUS projects focus on finding commercial uses for carbon dioxide to offset the huge costs of carbon capture.<\/p>\n

The most common approaches used in China\u2019s CCUS projects are enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and enhanced coal bed methane recovery (ECBM). The gas is liquified and injected into oil or methane reservoirs exhausted by conventional extraction. The carbon dioxide drives residual oil or methane to the surface, increasing extraction rates, then remains sequestered underground.<\/p>\n

According to the Asia Development Bank<\/a>, EOR could be a good option for many Chinese oil fields, which are already seeing or will soon see falling output.<\/p>\n

However, the economic feasibility of EOR depends upon the cost of the carbon dioxide and the selling price of the recovered oil. The ADB\u2019s analysis found that demonstration projects would need to have a large-scale coal-chemical plant nearby producing high concentrations of carbon dioxide \u2013 at least 100,000 tonnes a year, and ideally 1,000,000 tonnes. It suggests the extra oil produced by EOR can provide cashflow for ongoing purchase of carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n

Costs, and few benefits?<\/h2>\n

Analysts disagree over whether CCUS has any environmental benefits.\u00a0Some have pointed out<\/a> that as the extra fossil fuels obtained will ultimately be burned, CCUS cannot be seen as a solution to climate change.<\/p>\n

Zhu Weiqun, a professor at Shandong University\u2019s School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, has said<\/a> that CCUS will increase energy consumption by 25-40% and about two thirds of the carbon dioxide used in EOR will return to the surface, making it unsuitable for long-term sequestration.<\/p>\n

Long-term security of sequestered carbon has always been a risk<\/a>. According to the ADB<\/a>, rigorous environmental impact assessments (EIAs) and environmental protection plans are essential, along with monitoring and verification equipment. If CCUS is to be implemented more widely, standards will need to be developed for site selection, site grading, environmental impact assessments\u00a0and long-term stability (China is\u00a0earthquake prone).<\/p>\n

CCUS projects also require water for industrial cooling, but water shortages are already set to be one of China\u2019s biggest challenges<\/a> over the next 10-15 years \u2013 particularly in the west and north-west, where the coal industry is concentrated.<\/p>\n

Speeding up?<\/h2>\n

Jiang thinks urgency over mitigating the greenhouse effect will mean CCUS technologies will be given more market value (depending on policy measures and carbon pricing). The British Geological Survey has pointed out<\/a> that the viability of CCS globally is dependent on the value and price placed by people and governments on the environment and ecosystems.<\/p>\n

In theory, profits could be made from captured carbon dioxide by using it for EOR, or by selling emission rights, thus cancelling out the initial investment and running costs.<\/p>\n

But China\u2019s carbon markets remain in their infancy<\/a> and carbon prices are too low to effect emissions behaviour, so cooperation between carbon suppliers and carbon consumers will require individual negotiations.<\/p>\n

Jiang thinks the government will need to supply funding and support to early demonstration projects to ensure eventual commercial viability.<\/p>\n

Clean energy<\/h2>\n

However, all the\u00a0Chinese experts we spoke\u00a0to\u00a0agree\u00a0that an energy transition is more effective than CCUS\u00a0in terms of tackling global warming, even if the technology is an essential choice in the near term. \u201cEven in coal-powered countries, like China and South Africa, the most effective, cheapest and impactful option remains widespread energy saving,\u201d said Liu.<\/p>\n

According to Hu, there is also still potential to reduce warming from other greenhouse gases, such as hydrofluorocarbons and methane through giving serious attention by replacing refrigerants, cutting food consumption and even changing eating habits.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not possible to achieve a carbon neutral future without major changes to our lifestyles,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After the IPCC\u2019s urgent warning on climate change, will China speed up development of controversial carbon capture technologies?\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2265,"featured_media":60213,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761,757],"tags":[12580,513,597],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-35879","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","category-energy","tag-carbon-dioxide-removal","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-technology"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCosts, risks and benefits: can carbon sequestration take off? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After the IPCC\u2019s urgent warning on climate change, will China speed up development of controversial carbon capture technologies?\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Costs, risks and benefits: can carbon sequestration take off?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"After the IPCC\u2019s urgent warning on climate change, will China speed up development of controversial carbon capture technologies?\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-10-30T11:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-11-18T14:37:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Coal_Carbon_Capture_Technology_In_Use.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Hao Feng\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Hao Feng\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/4eb986ee3e9b562949562f8ef5f1b6e8\"},\"headline\":\"Costs, risks and benefits: can carbon sequestration take off?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-10-30T11:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2021-11-18T14:37:16+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/\"},\"wordCount\":1454,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Coal_Carbon_Capture_Technology_In_Use.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Carbon dioxide removal\",\"Carbon emissions\",\"Technology\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Climate\",\"Energy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/10879-costs-risks-and-benefits-can-carbon-sequestration-take-off\/\",\"name\":\"Costs, risks and benefits: can carbon sequestration take off? 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