{"id":36705,"date":"2019-12-02T10:52:00","date_gmt":"2019-12-02T10:52:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-20T18:24:09","modified_gmt":"2020-06-20T18:24:09","slug":"11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s at stake at the COP25 climate conference?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cWho said it is impossible?\u201d<\/p>\n

The slogan of October\u2019s\u00a0COP25 preparatory meeting in Costa Rica was designed\u00a0to spur global climate action. It was\u00a0followed, oddly enough, by a series of improbable events.<\/p>\n

Protests<\/a> broke out in Santiago, Chile, triggered by a hike in subway ticket prices. As the demonstrations grew more intense the country\u2019s president announced it could no longer host the COP. Spain stepped in to offer its capital as a substitute venue,\u00a0the side events would take place as planned, and the \u201cBlue COP<\/a>\u201d ocean focus\u00a0would be retained. (Swedish activist Greta Thunberg, originally heading to Chile overland through the Americas, managed to hitch a\u00a0lift<\/a>\u00a0on a boat and is set to arrive in time to attend most of the conference.)<\/p>\n

The core agenda of COP25 has not been much affected by the venue change, but Chile\u2019s leadership role may have\u00a0been slightly weakened. Three\u00a0key questions COP25 will try to answer are: Will China and other major nations boost their climate ambitions before 2020? Can the rules of international carbon markets be agreed upon? Will rich nations provide developing ones\u00a0with the financial and technological support they need?<\/p>\n

A weakened chair<\/h2>\n

There had been high hopes for the Santiago conference. Chile\u2019s climate action and ambition far outstrip\u00a0previous host, Poland. In recent years the country has promoted renewable energy development, with the International Energy Agency describing it<\/a> as \u201ca world-class destination for solar and wind energy developers.\u201d In June, Chile announced it would be coal free by 2040<\/a>, and carbon neutral by 2050. Amid a gloomy outlook for climate governance in recent years, Chile offered a ray of hope. The concern is that although still chairing the meeting in Madrid, the pressure of domestic affairs may leave Chile\u2019s leaders with little time for climate diplomacy.<\/p>\n

This year\u2019s Amazon fires heightened\u00a0international attention on deforestation and environmental damage in Latin America, and many NGOs<\/a> from the region had hoped to use the Chile conference to raise awareness of environmental and social issues. The change of location has made\u00a0it much harder for them to attend.<\/p>\n

An unchanged agenda<\/h2>\n

COP25 will mainly discuss matters outstanding from last year\u2019s negotiations. Though implementation guidelines for the Paris Agreement were agreed in Poland, consensus on several points was not reached.<\/p>\n

Market mechanisms were a notable source of contention; particularly, how international carbon markets would work. This matter is sometimes referred to as Article 6, after the relevant part of\u00a0the Paris Agreement. There is a need to\u00a0avoid double-counting carbon credits traded between nations. Developing nations did not used to need emissions reduction targets. Under Paris, all nations do. So to avoid double-counting, and thus overstating global progress on reducing emissions, carbon credits bought by developed nations need to be removed from the carbon accounts of developing ones.<\/p>\n

Disagreements over this remain. Brazil has numerous carbon sequestration targets and hopes to allow some degree of double-counting. The EU and some others\u00a0strongly oppose\u00a0that.\u00a0Qi\u00a0Yue, a former member of China\u2019s COP\u00a0negotiating team, said\u00a0China helped ease the way to last year\u2019s compromise. That meant setting aside market mechanisms in\u00a0order to ensure the implementation rulebook\u00a0could be agreed on. China will likely continue to act as a mediator in this year\u2019s talks, promoting the effective use of multilateral mechanisms, she added.<\/p>\n

Another detail to be decided on is a common timeframe for climate targets. Most signatories to the Paris Agreement turned in ten-year action plans (2020-30), but some are working towards five-year plans (2020-25). This\u00a0difference makes it harder to evaluate global progress. Post-2030 climate commitments need to be made under a common timeframe, but there are different preferences here: China and the EU would like five\u00a0years; Japan, the US and Saudi Arabia want ten.<\/p>\n

Hopefully, some crucial issues that are on the table at every COP will see strides\u00a0made this year. These include how to ensure developed nations, including\u00a0island states\u00a0threatened by sea-level rise, provide developing ones with adequate financing and technological support.<\/p>\n

\u2018Ambition, ambition, ambition\u2019<\/h2>\n

This year\u2019s agenda is relatively light, with the main purpose being to lay the foundations for next year\u2019s COP in the UK. That’s when updated national climate targets \u2013\u00a0known as \u201cnationally determined contributions\u201d (NDCs) \u2013\u00a0are due, along with low-emission\u00a0strategies for the period up to 2050.<\/p>\n

A range of research has\u00a0shown that the NDCs submitted so far come nowhere near\u00a0meeting the Paris requirements. The UN\u2019s Emissions Gap report<\/a> recently demonstrated that without stronger action, the world will be 3.2C warmer by the end of the century.<\/p>\n

At the close of last year\u2019s talks, the UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, said the key to future efforts is \u201cambition, ambition and ambition\u201d. In September this year, he personally hosted a climate summit in New York, to which he asked\u00a0attendees to \u201cbring concrete plans, not beautiful speeches<\/a>\u201d.\u00a0The New York talks saw some success<\/a>, with 65 countries saying they would answer the call to boost action on climate change, but that willingness has yet to become action. Guterres will continue his efforts in Madrid.<\/p>\n

In a November\u00a0statement<\/a> jointly issued with France, China said it will be handing in its 2050 low-emission development strategy in 2020, but remained vague on an update to its NDCs and timetable. The Innovative Green Development Program, a Chinese think-tank, has found\u00a0China to have\u00a0already achieved<\/a> a number of its 2015 NDC goals. Many domestic scholars are optimistic<\/a> that China will reach peak carbon before 2030. This all means there is scope for China to raise its sights.<\/p>\n

The 2020 UN climate change conference will take place in Glasgow, UK. Despite this year\u2019s talks falling in the middle of a UK general election, the government will send a senior representative to Madrid to present plans for next year. There are many uncertainties about the route to COP26, but as this year has shown, nothing is impossible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Amid rising global emissions and\u00a0temperature, diplomats are meeting in Madrid for the next two weeks to agree on how to ramp\u00a0up climate action, nail\u00a0down the rules and support\u00a0developing nations<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2634,"featured_media":60653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[761],"tags":[50040310,544,569],"hashtags":[],"country":[],"class_list":["post-36705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate","tag-carbon-markets","tag-finance","tag-negotiations"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat\u2019s at stake at the COP25 climate conference? | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Amid rising global emissions and\u00a0temperature, diplomats are meeting in Madrid for the next two weeks to agree on how to ramp\u00a0up climate action, nail\u00a0down the rules and support\u00a0developing nations\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What\u2019s at stake at the COP25 climate conference?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Amid rising global emissions and\u00a0temperature, diplomats are meeting in Madrid for the next two weeks to agree on how to ramp\u00a0up climate action, nail\u00a0down the rules and support\u00a0developing nations\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Dialogue Earth\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-12-02T10:52:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-06-20T18:24:09+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/COP25_DAY_1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2048\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1365\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Zhe Yao\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Zhe Yao\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#\/schema\/person\/7a1608bb484c207ff36149224c404322\"},\"headline\":\"What\u2019s at stake at the COP25 climate conference?\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-12-02T10:52:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-06-20T18:24:09+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/\"},\"wordCount\":998,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/COP25_DAY_1.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"Carbon markets\",\"Finance\",\"Negotiations\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Climate\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11705-what-s-at-stake-at-the-cop25-climate-conference\/\",\"name\":\"What\u2019s at stake at the COP25 climate conference? 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