{"id":36993,"date":"2020-05-05T09:02:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-05T09:02:00","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-06-20T16:39:31","modified_gmt":"2020-06-20T16:39:31","slug":"11993-by-2-7-3-5-billion-may-live-in-saharan-heat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/11993-by-2-7-3-5-billion-may-live-in-saharan-heat\/","title":{"rendered":"By 2070, 3.5 billion may live in Saharan heat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Climate change over the next 50 years could lead to 3.5 billion people living in temperatures higher than the climate \u201cniche\u201d in which most humans have historically lived, a new paper<\/a> says.<\/p>\n

Most people across the world currently live in areas with an average annual temperature of 11-15C, with a secondary concentration corresponding with the Indian monsoon region living in 20-25C, the paper says. Given this has been the case for the past 6,000 years, it adds, such conditions are probably an important factor for human thriving.<\/p>\n

Temperatures in many highly populated regions would likely far exceed these optimum ranges in a high-emissions<\/a> scenario where little is done to tackle climate change, the study says. It finds that by 2070, 3.5 billion people\u00a0\u2013 around 30% of the projected global population \u2013 would live in places with an average annual temperature above 29C, which would cover 19% of the world\u2019s land.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\nCLICK TO EXPAND. At present, mean average temperatures of over 29C are restricted to the small dark areas in the Sahara region. In 2070, under a business-as-usual scenario, such conditions are projected to occur throughout the shaded area (which would\u00a0be home to 3.5 billion people).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At present, just 20 million people (0.3% of the world\u2019s population) live in places with average temperatures above 29C, says Chi Xu, an ecologist from Nanjing University in China and lead author of the paper, which is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academies of Sciences. Only 0.8% of the global land surface currently has these high temperatures, mostly in the Sahara, the paper says.<\/p>\n

Migration<\/h2>\n

The study indicates that India would be the most impacted country, with 1.2 billion people living in temperatures above 29C in 2070 without migration. Nigeria would also be heavily affected, with around 500 million people living above the threshold, with hundreds of millions in Pakistan and Indonesia also experiencing these high temperature conditions.<\/p>\n

In this high-emissions scenario, many regions would likely see both migration and changes to where farming occurs, the paper says.<\/p>\n

The research makes it clear that we need to begin planning for climate-driven displacement, says Alex Randell from the UK-based Climate and Migration Coalition, who was not involved in the paper. \u201cFor many people, moving will be their only option for coping with climate change,\u201d he says. \u201cWe need to start planning for this now so that it can happen in an organised and dignified way.\u201d<\/p>\n

Displacement does not necessarily mean people will move countries, says Robert McLeman, professor of geography and environmental studies at Wilfrid Laurier University in Canada, and also uninvolved in the study.<\/p>\n