{"id":40093422,"date":"2023-07-31T13:15:02","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T12:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinadialogueocean.net\/?p=93422"},"modified":"2023-09-13T13:30:53","modified_gmt":"2023-09-13T12:30:53","slug":"global-shipping-to-speed-up-voyage-away-from-fossil-fuels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/global-shipping-to-speed-up-voyage-away-from-fossil-fuels\/","title":{"rendered":"Global shipping to speed up voyage away from fossil fuels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-drop-cap\">Deal! Hundreds of delegates from around the world rise to their feet, smiles break out from behind diplomatic poker faces, and applause fills the huge plenary room of the UN\u2019s International Maritime Organisation (IMO) in London.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There had been two weeks of intense negotiations, but 7 July was one of those UN moments \u2013 like the signing of the Paris Agreement itself \u2013 that we wait years for. Governments had finally agreed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imo.org\/en\/MediaCentre\/PressBriefings\/pages\/Revised-GHG-reduction-strategy-for-global-shipping-adopted-.aspx\">tougher climate targets<\/a> for global shipping, an industry that emits 1 billion tonnes of CO2 a year. For scale, the entirety of south and central America emitted <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/205966\/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-by-region\/\">1.3 billion tonnes<\/a> in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But was it real? Will this agreement really lower emissions? And is it aligned with the Paris Agreement? Let\u2019s take a closer look.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-imo-s-stricter-climate-targets\">The IMO\u2019s stricter climate targets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The main part of the deal was to agree on more stringent climate targets, that reduce emissions faster and further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What IMO had previously was a commitment to \u201cat least halve\u201d shipping emissions by 2050. The revised target this month is for shipping to reach <em>net<\/em>-zero emissions \u201cby or around, i.e. close to 2050\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That convoluted language was the price of bringing countries already committed to bringing shipping emissions down to zero by 2050 together with countries that have later domestic <em>net<\/em>-zero targets (such as China\u2019s 2060), and others for whom the concept of aiming for zero emissions is still a stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, significant progress has been made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What about action even sooner? IPCC climate scientists tell us that this decade is essential for bringing down cumulative emissions to keep global warming to 1.5C.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here, Pacific Island states, particularly the Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu, showed immense diplomatic skill and resilience. They persuaded other countries to agree on stretch goals of \u201cat least 20%, <em>striving for 30%<\/em>\u201d emissions reduction by 2030 (compared to the IMO\u2019s fixed baseline of 2008), and \u201cat least 70%, <em>striving for 80%<\/em>\u201d by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https:\/\/flo.uri.sh\/visualisation\/14596643\/embed\" title=\"Interactive or visual content\" class=\"flourish-embed-iframe\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"width:100%;height:600px;\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<p>These targets are still <em>not<\/em> aligned with the Paris Agreement\u2019s 1.5C temperature ceiling. That would have required emissions cuts of around 36% by 2030, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/sciencebasedtargets.org\/resources\/files\/SBTi-Maritime-Guidance.pdf\">Science Based Targets Initiative<\/a>, which helps companies set emissions reduction targets based on scientific evidence. That level was supported by the Pacific Island nations, US, Canada, and the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the stretch targets were as far as the Pacific Island countries could move others, and still mean a reduction in cumulative emissions of a whopping 10.8 billion tonnes CO2 equivalent out to 2050 compared to the Initial IMO Strategy adopted in 2018 (a drop from 27.9 billion tonnes to 17.1 billion tonnes). That\u2019s as much as shutting down 42 coal-fired power plants of 1 GW capacity each, with their full lifetime of 40 years remaining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s a big \u201cif\u201d though. Will countries actually achieve these reductions they have agreed to?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>China, Brazil and Argentina could only accept these ambitious numbers by calling them \u201cIndicative Checkpoints\u201d rather than a target. That raises doubts among climate NGOs of whether all countries are serious about meeting them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside emissions reductions, IMO also agreed new goals to scale-up green technologies, setting a goal of between 5% and 10% \u201czero or near-zero greenhouse gas emission technologies, fuels and\/or energy sources\u201d in shipping by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"40093297\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>That broader language of \u201cenergy sources\u201d, rather than just fuels, was a big win for the booming and diverse group of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wind-ship.org\/en\/category\/wind-propulsion-technology-providers\/\">wind-propulsion technology start-ups<\/a>. Twenty-eight cargo ships already have wind-assisted propulsion in operation on the water this year, according to the International WindShip Association. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.giz.de\/en\/worldwide\/125260.html\">This year<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.towt.eu\/towt-schedules-2024-2026\/\">next year<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.neoline.eu\/en\/neoliner-under-construction\/\">2025<\/a> onwards will see the launch of new <a href=\"https:\/\/www.offshore-energy.biz\/grain-de-sail-orders-its-next-wind-powered-freighter\/\">cargo ships<\/a> with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theoceanbird.com\/new-built\/\">wind power<\/a> as their main energy source.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s encouraging, but enormous and rapid scale-up is required, to get wind technologies retrofitted on a significant share of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imo.org\/en\/MediaCentre\/HotTopics\/Pages\/FAQ-on-crew-changes-and-repatriation-of-seafarers.aspx\">60,000<\/a> large cargo vessels plying our oceans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How will the IMO meet its new goals?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So how does IMO plan to reach its ambitious 2030 goals? At its July summit, the organisation agreed to finish designing mid-term \u201cmeasures\u201d (legally enforced policies to actually drive emissions reductions) by 2025, to come into force in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The basket includes both an \u201ceconomic\u201d and a \u201ctechnical\u201d candidate measure. The economic measure will be some sort of carbon-pricing mechanism \u2013 whether a simple agreed levy (eg US$100) on each tonne of greenhouse gases emitted, a feebate programme, or a cap-and-trade system (in which the price per tonne would vary according to market forces).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Economic measures help <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/c7eafc18-4f0a-411f-8ebb-d9399b3ff86a\">close the price gap<\/a> between currently expensive green fuels, and cheap tax-free fossil fuel, and they also raise revenue. This money will be crucial considering we need between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalmaritimeforum.org\/news\/the-scale-of-investment-needed-to-decarbonize-international-shipping\">$50 billion and $70 billion a year<\/a> of investment to fully decarbonise shipping by 2050, according to the Global Maritime Forum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The big unknown is whether some of the potentially huge revenues raised by a carbon price on shipping can be spent outside the shipping sector itself, to strengthen countries\u2019 climate resilience and adaptation. This approach is supported by Pacific nations most threatened by climate change, and endorsed by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2023\/mar\/22\/pressure-grows-on-shipping-industry-to-accept-carbon-levy\">World Bank<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Vanuatu-building-seawall_CDO_GP1T54XK.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Vanuatu-building-seawall_CDO_GP1T54XK-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Vanuatu-building-seawall_CDO_GP1T54XK-1024x682.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Vanuatu-building-seawall_CDO_GP1T54XK.jpg 2000w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2000px\" alt=\"Man in colourful shirt places a stone in a seawall, coastal forest in background\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">A seawall built in Emao Island, Vanuatu to slow the speed of coastal erosion. Sea level rise, driven by emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, threatens the existence of low-lying Pacific island nations like Vanuatu. (Image \u00a9 Niki Kuautonga \/ Greenpeace)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/Vanuatu-building-seawall_CDO_GP1T54XK.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"419 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1333\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2000\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, countries that currently dominate the global shipping industry, such as China, Japan, and Korea, are keener for that money to be kept within the shipping sector itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many countries at IMO spoke in favour of a \u201cjust and equitable\u201d transition, that \u201cleaves no one behind\u201d, which would seem to imply investing at least some revenues outside of the sector, but will this be followed through on?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The technical element will be some sort of Greenhouse Gas Fuel Standard (GFS), basically a mandate that each ship (or maybe each shipping company) must use a growing percentage of zero-carbon fuels each year, displacing oil use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This could be a very powerful lever to decarbonise shipping \u2013 comparable to the regulation that has led to booming electric vehicle sales in Europe and China. However, the devil is in the detail of how the regulation would treat biofuels and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), both of which can often lead to higher emissions than <a href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/climate\/black-carbon-the-low-hanging-fruit-for-cleaner-shipping\/\">bunker fuel<\/a>, depending on land use considerations, and levels of methane slip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Will the 2030 goals be met?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A bigger question looms over this entire timeline agreed at IMO. Even if a well-designed green fuels mandate and a reasonably high carbon price of around $100 per tonne come into force in 2027, does that leave enough time to meet the ambitious 2030 goals just three years later?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I asked the IMO\u2019s outgoing secretary general, Kitack Lim, if he was confident the 2030 targets would be met, given that short three-year runway?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He said the short-term measures already agreed would do much of the work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cEEXI [Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index] is already in place, CII [Carbon Intensity Index] is already in place. This is ongoing already. On top of that, we\u2019ll add a fuel standard, and an economic measure. That\u2019s why I believe the 2030 target will be accomplished. Why? Already we are seeing shipping moving towards the 40% [carbon intensity] reduction target by 2030.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-cd-article-image aligncenter block--article-image block--article-image--article\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\"><div class=\"block--article-image__column\"><div class=\"hide-expand block--article-image__image\"><img class=\"lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-container-ship-sailing-past-the-new-remote-measuring-station-for-ship-emissions-on-the-North-Sea_Mohssen-Assanimoghaddam_Alamy_PT1WDM.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-container-ship-sailing-past-the-new-remote-measuring-station-for-ship-emissions-on-the-North-Sea_Mohssen-Assanimoghaddam_Alamy_PT1WDM-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-container-ship-sailing-past-the-new-remote-measuring-station-for-ship-emissions-on-the-North-Sea_Mohssen-Assanimoghaddam_Alamy_PT1WDM-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-container-ship-sailing-past-the-new-remote-measuring-station-for-ship-emissions-on-the-North-Sea_Mohssen-Assanimoghaddam_Alamy_PT1WDM.jpg 2560w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 768px, (max-width: 1024px) 1024px, 2560px\" alt=\"A container ship sailing past the remote measuring station for ship emissions\"\/><\/div><div class=\"block--article-image__content\"><div itemprop=\"caption\" class=\"block--article-image__caption\">A container ship by a station near Bremen, Germany, for measuring the sulphur emissions of vessels passing in the North Sea (Image: Mohssen Assanimoghaddam \/ Alamy)<\/div><\/div><\/div><meta itemprop=\"contentUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/A-container-ship-sailing-past-the-new-remote-measuring-station-for-ship-emissions-on-the-North-Sea_Mohssen-Assanimoghaddam_Alamy_PT1WDM.jpg\"\/><meta itemprop=\"contentSize\" content=\"415 KB\"\/><meta itemprop=\"height\" content=\"1707\"\/><meta itemprop=\"width\" content=\"2560\"\/><meta itemprop=\"author\"\/><meta itemprop=\"representativeOfPage\" content=\"true\"\/><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>That carbon <em>intensity<\/em> target of 40% improvement by 2030 was left unchanged this month from the Initial Strategy. And while Mr Lim is right that shipping is on course to meet it, that doesn\u2019t mean we\u2019re anywhere close to reducing <em>outright<\/em> emissions by 2030, given the expected growth in global trade volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed, the EEXI policy will only nudge shipping emissions <a href=\"https:\/\/theicct.org\/publication\/potential-co2-reductions-under-the-energy-efficiency-existing-ship-index\/\">about 1%<\/a> off its business-as-usual growth pathway by 2030, according to ICCT, leaving outright emissions significantly <em>higher<\/em> by then.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, clearly, the hard work of getting to 30% outright emissions reduction by 2030 \u2013 IMO\u2019s agreed target \u2013 won\u2019t be done by IMO itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Perhaps that\u2019s unfair. There\u2019s a certain self-fulfilling momentum created when governments agree to non-binding targets. Just look at the Paris Agreement, and the booming wind and solar investment that has followed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UMAS, a maritime consultancy, argues that the IMO\u2019s 2023 Strategy \u201csends an unequivocal signal to investors that ships being ordered today, and many already built, have to be capable of running on zero-emission fuels\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What must companies and countries do?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So the onus really is on the industry itself now, to invest at the levels needed to meet the IMO\u2019s 30% emissions reduction by 2030 goal, and the 10% zero GHG fuels\/energy sources by 2030 goal. So far, shipping companies have seemed keener to give their windfall 2021\/2022 profits to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradewindsnews.com\/containerships\/hapag-lloyd-shrugs-off-eco-lobby-and-approves-bumper-11bn-dividend-payout\/2-1-1445360\">shareholders<\/a> as dividends, rather than invest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One key development to watch will be how the industry responds to the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cozev.org\/thelatest\/zero-emission-maritime-buyers-alliance-zemba-to-seek-bids-for-zero-emission-shipping-services\">Request for Proposals<\/a>\u201d this year by some big companies who want to ship their goods on zero-emission freight services. Which container lines will step up, and how competitive will the offers be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Individual countries are also going to have to seriously step up their actions in this sector, to have a chance of achieving what they\u2019ve agreed to internationally at IMO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<a class=\"wp-block-cd-related-news alignright block--related-news loading\" data-post-id=\"40092500\"><div class=\"block--related-news__image\"><\/div><div class=\"block--related-news__content\"><span class=\"block--related-news__heading\">Recommended<\/span><span class=\"block--related-news__title\"><\/span><\/div><\/a>\n\n\n\n<p>Countries can include their international shipping routes in their climate targets (as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/uk-enshrines-new-target-in-law-to-slash-emissions-by-78-by-2035\">UK has<\/a>), mandate that plug-in shore power be used by all ships calling at their ports in the near future (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/news\/en\/press-room\/20230320IPR77909\/fit-for-55-deal-on-new-eu-rules-for-cleaner-maritime-fuels\">as the EU has<\/a>), empower their <a href=\"https:\/\/portsforpeople.pacificenvironment.org\/policymaker\/\">ports<\/a> to take climate action, subsidise production of green hydrogen (as the <a href=\"https:\/\/newatlas.com\/energy\/climate-bill-green-hydrogen\/\">US has<\/a>), clean up domestic inland shipping routes with <a href=\"https:\/\/cleantechnica.com\/2023\/05\/24\/what-do-battery-energy-density-improvements-really-mean-for-trucks-ships-planes\/\">battery-powered<\/a> ships (as China is), and start to put serious cash behind their many commitments to establish <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/cop-26-clydebank-declaration-for-green-shipping-corridors\/cop-26-clydebank-declaration-for-green-shipping-corridors\">green international shipping<\/a> routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Countries can also turn up at the COP28 climate talks this year with shipping included in their Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement \u2013 to show they\u2019re serious about achieving what they\u2019ve said they will at IMO.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With stronger national action in this sector, significantly ramped up corporate investment, and mandatory, well-enforced carbon pricing and green Fuel Standard agreed in 2025, July\u2019s IMO summit will be seen as a major turning point towards a world of green global trade.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ned Molloy considers the steps needed to realise the IMO\u2019s stricter climate targets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1072,"featured_media":40093423,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[547,591],"hashtags":[],"country":[50040756,50041244,50040705],"class_list":["post-40093422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-shipping","country-marshall-islands","country-solomon-islands","country-vanuatu"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Global shipping to speed up voyage away from fossil fuels | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The IMO this month agreed to reach net-zero emissions \u201cby or around 2050\u201d, but this target is still not aligned with limiting warming to 1.5C\" 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