{"id":50011653,"date":"2018-09-11T17:52:58","date_gmt":"2018-09-11T16:52:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=11653"},"modified":"2023-01-26T11:27:57","modified_gmt":"2023-01-26T11:27:57","slug":"11653-crisis-hits-argentina-and-its-commodity-export-model","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/11653-crisis-hits-argentina-and-its-commodity-export-model\/","title":{"rendered":"Crisis hits Argentina and its commodity export model"},"content":{"rendered":"

Scarcely two years after taking office, the government of Mauricio Macri in Argentina is facing a severe economic crisis. Devaluation of the currency and a sizeable external debt have triggered fresh concerns over an economic model based on the export of raw materials.<\/p>\n

Expectations of growth and tackling rampant inflation when the government came to power in 2015 have given way today to an\u00a0increase in consumer prices of at least 40% and a 2% contraction of the economy<\/a>. Rising interest rates in the US \u2013 the biggest investor in Argentina \u2013 have meant slower investment, and a range of domestic problems have exacerbated the situation.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, Argentina experienced an\u00a0unprecedented drought which generated a loss of at least one percent of its GDP<\/a>. The agricultural sector is the central pillar of the economic model favoured by Macri, who has chosen to devalue the peso by 52%.<\/p>\n

Argentina has changed the structure of its economy since Macri\u2019s takeover, focusing more on primary products<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

This dire situation forced president to reintroduce\u00a0taxes on exports of raw materials,<\/a>\u00a0which boomed over the past decade thanks to\u00a0unprecedented demand from China<\/a>. The businessman and former mayor of Buenos Aires had eliminated these at the beginning of his mandate. However, the crisis has not led to a change in the model, which also has\u00a0important consequences for the environment<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cMacri sees Argentina as an exporter of primary products and this is the backbone of the economy. The aim is to increase exports from agriculture, of minerals and all products without added value,\u201d said Ariel Slipak, an economist specialising in Argentina\u2019s relations with China. \u201cIt is clearly deindustrialisation.\u201d<\/p>\n

For China, however, that is good news. In the first seven months of the year, Argentina exported US$2.9 billion in goods to China, more than 60% of which were primary products,\u00a0according to official statistics<\/a>. At the same time, imports from China were US$7.5 billion, 85% of which were manufactured goods.<\/p>\n

These figures mean a record trade deficit of US$5.3 billion between the two countries. Although this gap is\u00a0not new<\/a>, it has become more pronounced following the opening up of imports to Argentina, which was originally restricted by former president Cristina Kirchner to protect Argentine industries.<\/p>\n

In the last decade, the share of Chinese products in Argentina\u2019s imports has grown from 5% to 20%. However, exports from Argentina to China have not grown in tandem, remaining at between 8% and 10% of total exports.<\/p>\n

Ariel Setton, an economist at the University of Buenos Aires, said Argentina has changed the structure of its economy since Macri\u2019s takeover, focusing more on primary products \u2013 a model that he says meets China\u2019s needs:<\/p>\n

\u201cChina has invested heavily in Latin America in different areas and is a key ally for the region, more so than the US. The current government\u2019s economic vision suits China and its raw material needs.\u201d He added: \u201cMacri understands that the countryside is where Argentina has advantages over the rest of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trade war \u2013 new opportunities?<\/h2>\n

The trade war between the US and China, with tit-for-tat measures taken between the two nations, could offer an opportunity for Argentina and its agro-export model, especially if the dispute continues long term.<\/p>\n

China will impose 25% tariffs<\/a>\u00a0on imports of soya beans, corn and meat from the US, primary products which are also produced by Argentina and Brazil. However, Argentina\u2019s crippling drought means that there will be insufficient soya beans to export, meaning Brazil stands to benefit more.<\/p>\n

\u201cArgentina does not have the capacity to supply the volume of soybeans that the US sells to China, so the trade war would not have an immediate effect,\u201d Slipak said. \u201cHowever, if the dispute continues, Chinese demand for Argentine and Brazilian soya beans would escalate.\u201d<\/p>\n

Last year, Brazil supplied half of the soya beans imported by China, about 100 million tonnes. The US is its second supplier with 35 million tonnes. Argentina, meanwhile, exported seven million tons.<\/p>\n

President Xi Jinping\u2019s upcoming visit to Argentina as part of the G20 Leaders\u2019 Summit in November could give political impetus to addressing the trade imbalance between the two countries. There have been a number of fits and starts in the relationship under Macri.<\/p>\n

After initially\u00a0questioning the agreements<\/a>\u00a0signed by Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, Macri chose to\u00a0strengthen ties with China<\/a>, especially given the need for financing.\u00a0 New agreements were signed, among whichChina would finance a new nuclear plant and improvements to the San Mart\u00edn freight train system.<\/a><\/u><\/p>\n

Environmental impacts<\/h2>\n

Macri\u2019s decision to boost the country\u2019s agricultural sector has meant the deforestation of native forests, especially in Argentina\u2019s northern provinces, and increasing greenhouse gas emissions due to changes in land use.<\/p>\n

\n

4.3%<\/p>\n

\n
\nof global deforestation occurs in Argentina
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Argentina\u2019s forests are also now in crisis, according to several national and international indicators. In 2014, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that 4.3% of global deforestation occurs in Argentina.<\/p>\n

At the same time, a report by the United Nations\u2019\u00a0Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)\u00a0<\/u>\u00a0<\/a>listed Argentina among the ten countries that deforested the most between 1990 and 2015. Some 7.6 million hectares were lost \u2013 a rate of 300,000 hectares per year.<\/p>\n

80% of deforestation takes place in four northern provinces<\/a>: Santiago del Estero, Salta, Formosa and Chaco. The main causes of forest loss are the expansion of the agriculture frontier (to make way for transgenic soybeans and intensive cattle ranching) and fires.<\/p>\n

In 2007, Congress passed the Law on Forests<\/a>, which establishes minimum standards for forest protection and forest zoning in keeping with intended uses.\u00a0 However, ten years after its approval, the implementation of the law still faces challenges.<\/p>\n

\u201cArgentina reaffirmed its agro-export model, and for the forests it means direct destruction,\u201d said Noem\u00ed Cruz, coordinator of Greenpeace\u2019s forest campaign. \u201cLivestock and soybeans are advancing more and more, even in areas that are not to be deforested according to the Law on Forests.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the same time, advancing deforestation puts pressure on Argentina\u00b4s climate commitments. In its\u00a0Nationally Determined Contribution (<\/a>NDC<\/a>)<\/a>,<\/u>\u00a0the commitments Argentina made under the Paris Agreement on climate change. Macri\u2019s government pledged to reduce its emissions unconditionally by 18%, and conditionally by 37%.<\/p>\n

Argentina is responsible for 0.7% of the emissions that contribute to global warming. \u00a0According to the\u00a0latest greenhouse gas inventory<\/a>, 44% of the country\u2019s emissions come from agriculture and deforestation, followed by energy (27%), transport (13%), industry (12%) and waste (4%).<\/p>\n

\u201cArgentina has a \u2018productivist\u2019 model [focusing on economic growth above all else] that tries to exploit more resources. The big question is the environmental cost that it will bring,\u201d said Enrique Maurtua Konstantinidis, director of Climate Change at the Environment and Natural Resources Foundation (FARN).<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cThe land use sector will be the most problematic on reducing emissions in Argentina, considering the country\u2019s commitment to expanding the agricultural frontier and increasing livestock numbers. These policies go against the country\u2019s climate ambitions.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The exchange of raw materials for manufactures has devastating impacts on the economy and forests<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40000225,"featured_media":50021622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50029817,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,20000110],"class_list":["post-50011653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-supply-chains","tag-trade","country-argentina","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCrisis hits Argentina and its commodity export model | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The exchange of raw materials for manufactures has devastating impacts on the economy and forests\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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