{"id":50012181,"date":"2018-10-30T13:38:54","date_gmt":"2018-10-30T13:38:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=12181"},"modified":"2023-01-26T11:34:34","modified_gmt":"2023-01-26T11:34:34","slug":"12181-brazil-elects-bolsonaro-champion-of-anti-china-rhetoric","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/12181-brazil-elects-bolsonaro-champion-of-anti-china-rhetoric\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil elects Bolsonaro, champion of anti-China rhetoric"},"content":{"rendered":"

During this year\u2019s\u00a0hectic<\/a>\u00a0Brazilian presidential campaign, international markets\u2019 ears pricked up at privatisations promised by far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro, who swept to a comfortable second round victory over leftist rival Fernando Haddad on Sunday. In September, he boasted of plans to sell\u00a0100 state-owned companies<\/a>.<\/p>\n

But just three days after October\u2019s first round vote, plans screeched to a halt. In an interview with news network\u00a0Estad\u00e3o<\/em><\/a>, Bolsonaro backtracked on a pledge to privatise Eletrobras, a state-owned energy company, which markets had been watching closely. Energy generation is strategic for Brazil, he said, adding that he didn\u2019t want national assets in the wrong hands.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen you privatise, will you privatise to any capital in the world?\u201d Bolsonaro asked during the interview. \u201cChina isn\u2019t buying in Brazil, it\u2019s\u00a0buying<\/em>\u00a0Brazil. Are you going to put Brazil in Chinese hands?\u201d<\/p>\n

The contradiction between the liberal economic policy promised by Bolsonaro and his nationalist stance has caused concern, especially among the Chinese, Brazil\u2019s largest trading partners.<\/p>\n

Bolsonaro proclaimed himself anti-communist, suggested that Chinese investments threatened Brazil\u2019s sovereignty, and even visited Taiwan, with whom China is locked in an\u00a0ongoing diplomatic dispute about its independence<\/a>. He has expressed a strong desire to draw closer to the US, which launched a trade war against China earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Retired army captain Bolsonaro won the run-off with 55% of the total vote share.<\/p>\n

Fierce criticism of China has not been uncommon in recent elections in the region.\u00a0In the 2015<\/a>campaign, current president of Argentina Mauricio Macri wrote a letter to Chinese authorities saying that\u00a0agreements between Argentina and China might be unconstitutional<\/a>\u00a0and would be reviewed. In Chile in 2017,\u00a0Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era followed suit<\/a>, saying that \u201cChina\u2019s strong political presence in Latin America [was] not good.\u201d<\/p>\n

Both backpedalled. The avalanche of Chinese investments in South America and a growing dependence on trade seemingly took precedence.<\/p>\n

\u201cI believe that once he is in office, Bolsonaro\u2019s focus will be more pragmatic,\u201d said Maur\u00edcio Santoro, professor of international relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. \u201cBut this scenario is greatly concerning for the Chinese. Bolsonaro is an unknown.\u201d<\/p>\n

No matter what Jair Bolsonaro said during his campaign, I think he will adopt China-friendly policy.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of Chinese tabloid\u00a0Global Times<\/em>, which focuses on international affairs, expressed scepticism that anti-China sentiment would infuse Brazil\u2019s foreign policy.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo matter what Jair Bolsonaro said during his campaign, I think he will adopt China-friendly policy. China is top buyer of Brazilian soybean and ore. Trump-style capricious China policy will not be in line with the interests of his administration,\u201d Hu tweeted.<\/p>\n

Chinese investments in Brazil<\/h2>\n

Bolsonaro and his allies tend to repeat that China is trying to buy Brazil.\u00a0Since 2009, China has been the number one destination for Brazilian exports, replacing the US. It is also Brazil\u2019s largest investor.<\/p>\n

\n

US$20.9<\/p>\n

\n
\nLast year, China\u00a0invested US$20.9 billion in Brazil
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Last year, China\u00a0invested US$20.9 billion in Brazil<\/a>, the highest annual figure in the past seven years. A large part of these investments included assets in the energy sector, such as power distribution company CPFL Energia.\u00a0This investment made the buyer, Chinese state-owned State Grid, the largest distributor of electricity in Brazil.<\/a><\/p>\n

China also invests in other areas of strategic importance to the Brazilian economy. These include agribusiness and infrastructure that expedites the export of agricultural products.<\/p>\n

It makes sense to question whether Chinese investment is the best way to serve Brazil\u2019s geopolitical interests, says Alexandre Uehara, professor at the Asian Business Studies Centre at the country\u2019s Advanced School of Marketing and Advertising (ESPM). But these criticisms have not been constructive for formulating Brazilian economic policy.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt is silly to say \u2018I don\u2019t like China,\u2019 as in the case of electricity. It\u2019s not like that,\u201d says Uehara. \u201cChina is presented as the villain behind Brazil\u2019s problems.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brazil-China relations date back decades. President Ernesto Geisel established China ties during the military dictatorship in 1970, and the relationship has strengthened in recent years. They peaked under successive Workers Party (PT) administrations, when Brazil and China joined India, Russia, and South Africa in creating the BRICS group of emerging economies.<\/p>\n

Closer relations coincided with the strengthening of Brazilian agribusiness, which now sells to the world\u2019s largest consumer of soybeans, but its weakening industry has been\u00a0damaged by Chinese competition<\/a>, among other factors.<\/p>\n

The election was characterised by strong voter rejection of past PT governments.<\/p>\n

Provocations<\/h2>\n

China\u2019s importance to Brazil grew rapidly in the 2000s and caused concern among nationalists, especially the military, a group close to Bolsonaro.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe idea that you have strategic sectors of the Brazilian economy controlled by foreigners, and especially a regime like China, which by nominally being a communist party is a communist government, always causes some kind of reaction in the Armed Forces,\u201d explains Santoro. \u201cWe still have a bit of this Cold War view.\u201d<\/p>\n

This may be why Bolsonaro didn\u2019t shy away from provocations during his campaign. In addition to Taiwan, in February he travelled in South Korea and Japan, two countries that also have complex relations with China.<\/p>\n

The trip was planned by federal deputy Onyx Lorenzoni, who is likely to be appointed Bolsonaro\u2019s chief of staff. According to Lorenzoni, the trip aimed to explore Taiwan\u2019s education sytem. This was not how China saw the visit.<\/p>\n

The Chinese embassy in Brazil sent an\u00a0outraged letter<\/a>\u00a0to Lorenzoni\u2019s party, describing the visit as a \u201cbreach of the one-China policy, a broad consensus in the international community and a policy explicitly advocated by the government and the Brazilian Congress.\u201d<\/p>\n

Concerning US closeness<\/h2>\n

In October 2017, Bolsonaro drew the attention of Brazilian nationalists for another reason: saluting the US flag on a visit to Miami.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump is an example for me,\u201d Bolsonaro\u00a0told an audience in another city on the same trip<\/a>. \u201cI know how far I am from Trump, but I plan to approach him for the good of Brazil and the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n

Analysts suggest the two could create a right-wing alliance in the region. Rapprochement with the US could benefit Trump, who has been isolated from the international community during his presidency.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe G7 summits [of the seven largest economies in the world] have produced all kinds of embarrassing photos,\u201d says Santoro. \u201cYou can clearly see that the people there are embarrassed to have to be with Trump.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brazil has already begun to profit from Trump\u2019s\u00a0trade hostilities with China<\/a>, with exports of soybeans up 15% from January to September this year based on the same period last year. But aligning with the US in this context may mean an escalation in relations between the US and China, and not only on trade.<\/p>\n

Brazil and China have also been allies in international diplomacy. For example, the two countries are part of the\u00a0BASIC group, with South Africa and India<\/a>. Last year, the group began spearheading developing country resistance against the damage caused by a US withdrawal the Paris Agreement.<\/p>\n

But Bolsonaro has sent mixed signals about the Agreement. He said that he would not withdraw, but disagreed on Brazil\u2019s commitments, such as the preservation of the Amazon.<\/p>\n

Pragmatism expected to prevail<\/h2>\n

Despite the hostilities, analysts predict the new government will continue good relations with China. Bolsonaro counted on support from more than\u00a0two hundred members of the ruralist front<\/a>, Brazil\u2019s powerful agribusiness lobby, which is heavily dependent on exports to China. Any quarrel with China would directly affect Bolsonaro\u2019s support base.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe United States has the status to pick a fight. It\u2019s the world\u2019s largest economy,\u201d explains Uehara of ESPM. \u201cThis is not the case in Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n

Di\u00e1logo Chino spoke with members of Bolsonaro\u2019s campaign who are already making overtures to China and discussing meetings with Chinese representatives.<\/p>\n

In an\u00a0editorial<\/a>\u00a0published yesterday, the state-run\u00a0China Daily<\/em>\u00a0highlighted the country\u2019s willingness to establish good relations with the new government.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe cherish the sincere hope that when he assumes leadership of the world\u2019s eighth-largest economy, Bolsonaro will take an objective and rational look at the state of China-Brazil relations,\u201d it wrote.<\/p>\n

It took Pi\u00f1era just one day to make peace with China after getting elected. \u201cWe all know that China is Chile\u2019s main trading partner, and that we will strengthen this relationship,\u201d\u00a0he said at the time.<\/a><\/p>\n

It remains to be seen if and when Bolsonaro will follow suit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analysts predict that pragmatism will replace campaign speeches vilifying Chinese investments <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40000225,"featured_media":50016628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50029993,50040720,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000021,20000110,50040700],"class_list":["post-50012181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-elections","tag-geopolitics","tag-trade","country-brazil","country-china","country-united-states-of-america"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBrazil elects Bolsonaro, champion of anti-China rhetoric | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Analysts predict that pragmatism will replace campaign speeches vilifying Chinese investments\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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