{"id":50030864,"date":"2019-10-16T14:54:55","date_gmt":"2019-10-16T13:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=30864"},"modified":"2023-03-12T15:45:51","modified_gmt":"2023-03-12T15:45:51","slug":"30864-argentina-crisis-challenges-china-loan-repayments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/30864-argentina-crisis-challenges-china-loan-repayments\/","title":{"rendered":"Argentina crisis challenges China loan repayments"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Less than two weeks from presidential elections, Argentina is facing a new economic crisis that severely challenges its ability to repay foreign lenders, including China \u2013 its fourth largest \u2013 which has issued US$16.9 billion in loans from 2007 to 2018, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thedialogue.org\/map_list\/\">Inter-American Dialogue.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>With scant means of servicing the country\u2019s debt, including payments of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/economia\/2019\/10\/03\/en-2020-el-proximo-gobierno-debera-afrontar-pagos-de-deuda-por-usd-37000-millones\/\">US$52 billion<\/a> due next year, President Mauricio Macri ends his term with Argentina on the brink of default, which also has consequences for repayment of the Chinese loans.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina has shown patience with Argentina\u2019s political and economic shifts and will likely continue to do so,\u201d said Bruno Binetti, fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue. \u201cThey want to keep looking for strategic resources for the medium-term and they contemplate the short-term shocks when making an investment.\u201d<\/p>\n<div class='block--pullout-stat block--pullout-stat--float cd-shortcode--factbox'>\n                <p class='block--pullout-stat__title'>Argentina's economic crisis by numbers:<\/p>\n                <div class='block--pullout-stat__content'>\n                    <\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>3rd biggest economy in Latin America<\/li>\n<li>US$284 billion owed by Argentina to its creditors<\/li>\n<li>US$52 billion debt repayments due in 2020<\/li>\n<li>US$16.9 billion owed to China<\/li>\n<li>US$47.9 billion currency reserves, of which...<\/li>\n<li>US$19 billion are yuan from a currency swap with China<\/li>\n<li>4% inflation rate in August, 30% for the year so far<\/li>\n<li>79% increase in foreign debt since 2016<\/li>\n<li>35.4% poverty rate<\/li>\n<li>10.6% unemployment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n<p>Shunned by international markets following a 2001 default and disputes with US-based hedge funds, Macri\u2019s predecessor Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner, who is August <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/world-latin-america-49317750\">primaries winner<\/a> Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s running mate, turned to China. She secured much-needed investment in infrastructure, energy and transportation from China\u2019s state-owned policy banks.<\/p>\n<p>However, critics, who included Macri, warned of tying Argentina to inordinately expensive infrastructure projects that would limit the country\u2019s future policy choices.<\/p>\n<h2>Key loans<\/h2>\n<p>Over the past decade, <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/12583-with-new-allies-argentina-reassesses-its-relationship-with-china\/\">Argentina secured Chinese funds<\/a> for eleven projects, including railways, <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/23529-china-builds-latin-americas-largest-solar-plant\/\">solar energy<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/27282-china-eyes-argentina-in-global-nuclear-roll-out\/\">nuclear energy<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/9434-argentina-under-pressure-to-revive-dams-in-patagonia\/\">dams<\/a>, mainly through the Export Import Bank of China (China Exim) and China Development Bank.<\/p>\n<p>The country also benefited from a US$19 billion currency swap, which helped bolster Central Bank foreign currency reserves that have dropped by US$28 billion in the past six months.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina has become one of the most relevant creditors for Argentina,\u201d said Leonardo Stanley, a researcher at Argentina\u2019s Center for State and Society Studies (CEDES).<\/p>\n<p>However, Stanley pointed out that multilateral organisations, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with whom Macri agreed a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2018\/sep\/26\/argentina-imf-biggest-loan\">record US$57 billion<\/a> bailout package in August, remain the largest.<\/p>\n<div class='cdo-shortcode--image'><\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed\" data-src=\"visualisation\/781225\"><\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n<\/div>\n<p>One of the most significant China loans was for 85% of the cost of constructing <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/9434-argentina-under-pressure-to-revive-dams-in-patagonia\/\">two hydroelectric dams<\/a> in Patagonia, at a cost of US$4.7 billion. The project was awarded in 2013 and construction began in 2015 but then stalled due to environmental groups\u2019 concerns over unsatisfactory environmental impact studies.<\/p>\n<p>Lender China Development Bank included a loan clause that made other infrastructure projects in Argentina conditional on the approval of the dams. Aware of this, Macri gave them the green light, albeit at a reduced scale.<\/p>\n<p>Chinese lenders afforded similar flexibility on a US$10 billion loan to build a <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/27282-china-eyes-argentina-in-global-nuclear-roll-out\/\">nuclear complex<\/a> consisting of two plants. Macri <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/4292-new-argentina-president-to-put-china-deals-under-the-microscope\/\">froze<\/a> the 2015 deal on taking office amid doubts over the current and future affordability of nuclear energy.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>China wants to make sure that some of the loans are paid back before the change of administration<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Again, he eventually approved the project but downsized to one plant. Despite these setbacks, Chinese investors continue to seek opportunities in Argentina.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhen I ask Chinese companies why they come here with such a difficult financial situation, they always say the same thing. They invest abroad always thinking of the long-term, so they are not worried about not being paid,\u201d said Ernesto Fern\u00e1ndez Taboada, head of the China-Argentina chamber of commerce.<\/p>\n<h2>Learning curve<\/h2>\n<p>China\u2019s lending to Latin America also has geopolitical motives, according to economist Ariel Slipak, who said Chinese firms seek access to key primary resources and hope to secure markets for their products.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina adapts to the political characteristics of each country and has shown flexibility. They are going through a learning curve, learning how to insert themselves in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Aside from mega-projects, China is also mobilising resources for less expensive ventures that are quicker to execute. Some also help the country to increase the share of renewables in its oil- and gas-heavy energy matrix.<\/p>\n<p>Such is the case of <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/23529-china-builds-latin-americas-largest-solar-plant\/\">Cauchari<\/a>, a solar plant in the northern Argentine province of Jujuy. China Exim Bank agreed to fund the project\u2019s US$390 million total cost in 2016. The plant is set to start generating energy from next month.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina wants to make sure that some of the loans are paid back before the change of administration, so they are now exploring more short-term projects. It\u2019s part of their learning process,\u201d Binetti said.<\/p>\n<h2>No strategy<\/h2>\n<p>While the loans enabled otherwise unfeasible projects, they concentrated Argentina\u2019s debt obligations to China on big projects that take a long time to provide returns.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, Argentina agreed to build large dams and nuclear plants with no long-term strategy for the energy sector or assessment of the costs of different energy sources, former energy secretary Jorge Lape\u00f1a told Di\u00e1logo Chino.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Agreements like these limit Argentina\u2019s policymaking autonomy. We need a proper energy strategy<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Lape\u00f1a and a group of other ex-energy secretaries claimed political ties, rather than sound economics, were responsible for the approval of the China-backed projects under Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cProjects are now decided based on political convenience. Then we have to deal with the problems when they have to be implemented.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Argentina\u2019s energy ministry, which was downgraded to the status of secretariat in 2018, showed in a <a href=\"http:\/\/datos.minem.gob.ar\/dataset\/9e2a8087-1b49-446a-8e86-712b476122fb\/resource\/04dbee7f-0b6f-48d0-b460-8d7fa3b282c7\/download\/minem-documento-escenarios-energeticos-2030pub.pdf\">2017 study<\/a> that the cost of a generating a kilowatt (KW) of nuclear energy is 4.8 times higher than it is for wind power and 6.6 times higher than solar.<\/p>\n<p>[chinadialogue_fullwidth]<\/p>\n<div class=\"flourish-embed\" data-src=\"visualisation\/771931\"><\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/public.flourish.studio\/resources\/embed.js\"><\/script><br \/>\n[\/chinadialogue_fullwidth]<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAgreements like these limit Argentina\u2019s policymaking autonomy. We need a proper energy strategy in which the state has a significant role,\u201d Lape\u00f1a said.<\/p>\n<h2>Looking ahead<\/h2>\n<p>Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez, late president N\u00e9stor Kirchner\u2019s cabinet chief, is odds on favourite to become the next president after winning 47% of the vote in the primaries. Macri earned just a 32% vote share.<\/p>\n<p>Should Fern\u00e1ndez win, it will likely mean deepening ties with China, which Macri was hesitant to entrench amid <a href=\"http:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/12583-with-new-allies-argentina-reassesses-its-relationship-with-china\/\">US warnings<\/a> about China\u2019s \u2018predatory\u2019 activity in Latin America.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cChina knows who they will be dealing with if Fern\u00e1ndez wins,\u201d Slipak said.<\/p>\n<p>A Fern\u00e1ndez administration could expedite projects delayed under Macri, or even negotiate new ones. The currency swap deal could also be expanded in an effort to relieve Argentina\u2019s debt payments.<\/p>\n<p>Fern\u00e1ndez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.infobae.com\/politica\/2019\/10\/06\/rusia-y-china-estan-al-acecho-de-los-planes-de-alberto-fernandez-para-la-argentina\/\">recently suggested<\/a> that Macri, who claimed he would attract investment from international lenders only to return to China, had not appreciated its role as a reliable foreign investor.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe seek a respectful and serious relationship with China,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Less than two weeks from presidential elections, Argentina is facing a new economic crisis that severely challenges its ability to repay foreign lenders, including China \u2013 its fourth largest \u2013 which has issued US$16.9 billion in loans from 2007 to 2018, according to the Inter-American Dialogue. With scant means of servicing the country\u2019s debt, including [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000004,"featured_media":50030884,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[529,50029993,544],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,20000110],"class_list":["post-50030864","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-debt","tag-elections","tag-finance","country-argentina","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v26.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Argentina crisis challenges China loan repayments | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With elections and a sovereign default looming, \u2018patient\u2019 Chinese investors stand by an Argentina in crisis with 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