{"id":50031387,"date":"2019-10-31T16:30:21","date_gmt":"2019-10-31T16:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=31387"},"modified":"2023-03-12T15:31:23","modified_gmt":"2023-03-12T15:31:23","slug":"31387-new-argentina-president-looks-set-to-deepen-china-ties","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/business\/31387-new-argentina-president-looks-set-to-deepen-china-ties\/","title":{"rendered":"New Argentina president looks set to deepen China ties"},"content":{"rendered":"

Following four years of back-and-forth<\/a> over their relationship, Argentina could soon renew diplomatic bonds with China when left-wing Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez takes over the presidency on December 10.<\/p>\n

The Peronist candidate won last weekend\u2019s elections with 48% of the votes in the first round, avoiding a run-off and ending President Mauricio Macri\u2019s slim hopes of reelection. Former president Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner (no relation) ran as vice-president alongside Fern\u00e1ndez.<\/p>\n

Argentina is on the verge of a new sovereign default, which likely impacted Macri\u2019s less than 40% vote share. The country has soaring debt, including to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which is deeply unpopular in the country following a 2001 default, and closer ties with China, an important creditor, appear on the horizon.<\/p>\n

\n

45%<\/p>\n

\n
\nthe vote share needed by presidential candidates in Argentina to avoid a second round
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

\u201cArgentina will likely see deeper ties with China under a Fern\u00e1ndez administration,\u201d said Sergio Cesarin, coordinator of the Centre for Asia-Pacific and India Studies (CEAPI) at the Universidad Tres de Febrero. \u201cChinese projects questioned by Macri will now be reactivated.\u201d<\/p>\n

Under Fern\u00e1ndez de Kircher\u2019s second term (2011-2015), Argentina signed 20 cooperation treaties and agreed a number of finance packages for Chinese-built infrastructure projects, including a controversial nuclear complex and two major dams.<\/p>\n

Macri expressed concern over the deals, although he ultimately declined to cancel them.<\/p>\n

Hints at Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s policies<\/h2>\n

Although Fern\u00e1ndez has given very few clues over his diplomacy, he has referenced China frequently. He suggested that Macri didn\u2019t appreciate China\u2019s role as a reliable foreign investor and told the IMF he would lean on China if they weren\u2019t more flexible on debt repayment.<\/p>\n

Fern\u00e1ndez already met with Zou Xiaoli, China\u2019s ambassador in Argentina, during the presidential campaign and some key foreign policy advisors, such as Jorge Arguello and Jorge Taiana, recently visited the Chinese embassy in Buenos Aires.<\/p>\n

Following the election, Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for China\u2019s Foreign Ministry, briefly congratulated Fern\u00e1ndez for his victory, claiming they value the ties with Argentina and will work for a \u201cstable progress\u201d in the relationship. China\u2019s President Xi Xinping also sent a letter<\/a> to congratulate Fern\u00e1ndez.<\/p>\n

Rafael Gentili, president of the progressive Laboratorio de Pol\u00edticas P\u00fablicas (LPP) think-tank, believes that the relationship between the new government and China will be both \u201ctight\u201d and \u201cdiscrete\u201d.<\/p>\n

Argentina has a comprehensive strategic alliance with China, a diplomatic status the latter confers only on a few countries.<\/p>\n

Fern\u00e1ndez will seek a mature relationship with China and the US, seeking to get the best he can from both countries<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The country has also benefited from a US$19 billion currency swap with China, which helped bolster Central Bank foreign currency reserves that have dropped by US$28 billion in the past six months. A first part of the swap came under Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner. Macri agreed an extension.<\/p>\n

Macri\u2019s review of the China-backed dams<\/a> in Patagonia and a nuclear power plants<\/a> in Buenos Aires led to some changes and the projects downsized. Even after the moves, they are still awaiting confirmation.<\/p>\n

Now, experts believe the projects, which environmental and energy experts questioned, could be boosted under Fern\u00e1ndez. Nevertheless, China will not necessarily be the main focus of Argentina\u2019s foreign relations, as the country hopes for good terms with other international creditors.<\/p>\n

\u201cFern\u00e1ndez will seek a mature relationship with China and the US, seeking to get the best he can from both countries. If China wants to invest and provide funding, then great. The need will prevail over the ideology,\u201d Marcelo Elizondo, a trade expert at consultancy DNI, said.<\/p>\n

Wang Ping<\/a>, a professor at Nankai University, wrote in a blog that Macri\u2019s failed policies had led to disillusionment with the \u2018neoliberal\u2019 model in Argentina and advocated a guided state intervention in the economy.<\/p>\n

Shanghai-based The Paper<\/a> published a commentary expressing concern about Argentina\u2019s economic development and claimed prior to the elections that whatever the outcome, it would be unlikely to resolve the crisis.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the People\u2019s Daily<\/a> said it believed that although Fern\u00e1ndez faced many challenges, his policies were \u201carousing expectations\u201d.<\/p>\n

The role of Mercosur<\/h2>\n

As well as a new government in Argentina, Uruguay will also choose a new president in a second-round contest next month. Political changes in the region will likely have consequences for the Mercosur common market, whose permanent members are Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, and the bloc\u2019s relationship with China.<\/p>\n

Over the past few years, Uruguay has pushed for a free trade agreement between Mercosur and China, although the former has not yet fully considered this internally. The country hosted a China-Mercosur summit<\/a> last year in Montevideo and put a potential deal on the top of the discussion agenda.<\/p>\n

it won\u2019t make sense for him to embrace a free trade agreement with China, either with Mercosur or bilaterally<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Uruguay has also discussed the possibility of signing a bilateral trade deal with China, something not allowed under Mercosur rules. This interest is shared by China, mentioning on its 2016 framework document regarding Latin America its desire to \u201cexplore the bilateral commercial potential.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ignacio Bartesaghi, dean of the Faculty of Business Studies at the Catholic University of Uruguay, said Fern\u00e1ndez will likely have a more protectionist economic policy, which would change the dynamics of Mercosur and create tensions between Argentina and the rest of the bloc.<\/p>\n

\n

$12billion<\/p>\n

\n
\nthe value of Argentina-Brazil trade so far this year (US$)
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

Such tensions are already visible. Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said he wouldn\u2019t congratulate Fern\u00e1ndez for his recent victory and threatened to leave Mercosur if Argentina doesn\u2019t pursue Macri\u2019s open-market approach. Argentina and Brazil share strong trade links, worth US$12 billion so far this year.<\/p>\n

Brazil will host the bloc\u2019s next summit in early December, before Fern\u00e1ndez takes office. The key issue will be Bolsonaro\u2019s proposal to slash tariffs for over 10,000 products imported by member countries, an idea Fern\u00e1ndez is likely to challenge.<\/p>\n

\u201cFern\u00e1ndez will likely have a more industrialist policy so it won\u2019t make sense for him to embrace a free trade agreement with China, either with Mercosur or bilaterally,\u201d said Julieta Zelicovich, an international relations expert.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t see a Mercosur-China trade deal on the horizon.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Following four years of back-and-forth over their relationship, Argentina could soon renew diplomatic bonds with China when left-wing Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez takes over the presidency on December 10. The Peronist candidate won last weekend\u2019s elections with 48% of the votes in the first round, avoiding a run-off and ending President Mauricio Macri\u2019s slim hopes of reelection. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000563,"featured_media":50031402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[758],"tags":[50040720,556,600],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,20000110],"class_list":["post-50031387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-geopolitics","tag-infrastructure","tag-trade","country-argentina","country-china"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNew Argentina president looks set to deepen China ties | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s outright victory in Sunday\u2019s election in Argentina could reactivate controversial China-backed projects\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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