{"id":50034571,"date":"2020-04-02T16:40:30","date_gmt":"2020-04-02T15:40:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/stage.dialogochino.net\/?p=34571"},"modified":"2023-03-13T22:50:08","modified_gmt":"2023-03-13T22:50:08","slug":"34571-plans-to-boost-economies-with-oil-crash-along-with-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/34571-plans-to-boost-economies-with-oil-crash-along-with-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Plans to boost economies with oil crash along with prices"},"content":{"rendered":"

In 2019, the new presidents of Mexico and Argentina announced plans to lift their struggling economies: ambitious oil projects that would boost state revenues.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For Mexico, it centred on state-owned oil company Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the controversial Dos Bocas refinery. In Argentina, Vaca Muerta, one of the world\u2019s largest deposits of shale oil and gas, was touted as the saviour of the country’s economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

60%<\/p>\n

\n
\nthe fall in oil prices since January
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div><\/span><\/p>\n

Then came the Covid-19 pandemic<\/a> and with it, a severe price crash in the crude oil market. Oil prices have plummeted 60% since January to below US$30 a barrel \u2014 an 18-year low. It started with a crisis in demand as the Chinese economy slowed. But the slump is mainly the consequence of a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia that will likely flood the international market with oil, making investment in the sector much less attractive.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The investment crash will not only impact Mexico and Argentina, but other oil-producing nations in Latin America region, such as Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador.<\/span><\/p>\n

Edmar de Almeida, an economics professor who studies the energy sector at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, said the demand and price crises will likely hit investment in oil projects, as companies try to preserve their cash.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThis means reducing investment in exploration and postponing projects. I don\u2019t see oil as a driver for boosting the economy now,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oil: crashing prices and hopes<\/h2>\n

Mexican president Andr\u00e9s Manuel L\u00f3pez Obrador was so <\/span>eager<\/span><\/a> to use oil to lift the economy that one of his first measures as president was to change Pemex’s motto. Now <\/span>it reads<\/span><\/a>: \u201cFor the recovery of sovereignty\u201d above its Mexican eagle logo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Questions over Pemex\u2019s ability to drive Mexico\u2019s economy were already mounting as it struggled to pay off debts of over <\/span>US$105 billion<\/span><\/a>, according to <\/span>Reuters<\/span><\/i>. Some revenues were saved through a massive sale of its production through future contracts, shielding it from the slump.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The future of the US$8 billion Dos Bocas refinery L\u00f3pez Obrador promised also looks uncertain. In January, Chinese ambassador Zhu Qingqiao announced that two Chinese banks would invest <\/span>$600 million<\/span><\/a> in the project, but withdrew after the Mexican government denied the deal as it sought to maintain what it called <\/span>sovereignty<\/span><\/a> over the project.<\/span><\/p>\n

The refinery would be a massive investment for a struggling company to make, especially by itself. But the Mexican government still backs it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Vaca Muerta is now like a patient with a fever<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u201cAt a time when oil prices are so low, such as today, the most convenient and the best business is to refine,” claimed <\/span>Mexico<\/span><\/a>\u2019s Energy minister Roc\u00edo Nahle in a recent interview with El Financiero TV<\/em>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in Argentina, many have come to terms with the fact the government\u2019s plans to further develop Vaca Muerta, in the southern Patagonian province on Neuquen, will probably have to wait longer than expected \u2014 crushing news for a government in need of more funds as it deals with a debt restructuring<\/a> process.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cArgentina was putting most of its future hopes on Vaca Muerta and now that\u2019s under discussion,\u201d Jorge Lape\u00f1a, a former energy secretary, said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As it stands, Vaca Muerta plays a major role in the domestic market, supplying 3% of the country’s gas and 19% of its oil. Nevertheless, only 5% of reserves are exploited. For it to be profitable, the price of a barrel of Brent crude must be above US$40, way above current levels.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sustaining Vaca Muerta\u2019s planned growth in production means developing about 300 unconventional hydrocarbon wells per year, requiring investment of between US$5 billion and $7 billion annually, according to a report by business consultancy Abeceb.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cVaca Muerta is now like a patient with a fever, we have to follow the evolution of international markets. If prices remain low, investments will be delayed and production will drop,\u201d said Gerardo Rabinovich, vice president of the General Mosconi Energy Institute.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

No customers<\/h2>\n

Investments are not the only concern in Latin America, as many countries depend on oil revenue to pay the bills. China is one of the main clients for crude produced in the region.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Almeida says Brazil has a strong internal market that could help state-owned energy company Petrobras weather the crisis.<\/span>\u00a0But the company announced it was cutting investments from US$12 billion to $8.5 billion due to the crisis, and slowing production, especially in shallow waters. Almeida says the cuts shouldn\u2019t affect long term investments, as these are planned to run for several years.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Did you know...?<\/p>\n

\n
\nColombian oil exports to China doubled between 2017 and 2018
\n\n <\/div>\n <\/div>\n

But the scenario is especially stark in Colombia, where oil represents almost 80% of exports to China. The country doubled sales to China between 2017 and 2018. However, in February, as it struggled to address the Covid-19 crisis, China <\/span>slammed<\/span><\/a> on the breaks on purchases of Colombian oil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Colombia\u2019s president Iv\u00e1n Duque knew the country\u2019s dependence on oil exports would become a problem. In August, he <\/span>pledged<\/span><\/a> to diversify Colombia\u2019s exports to China during a state visit to Beijing. Nothing has changed so far.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe have to prepare for an expensive dollar, lower revenue from exports and, further ahead, lower tax revenue because of oil,\u201d said <\/span>former minister<\/span><\/a> Mauricio C\u00e1rdenas, adding that the country needed to boost domestic consumption of the oil it wouldn\u2019t sell to other countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

A bump for renewables?<\/h2>\n

As lower oil prices become the new normal, many are wondering what that means for investment in renewable energy. Some say lower oil prices mean renewables are less competitive, while others argue that the slump actually means investors will grow less interested in crude and venture to other energy projects.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andr\u00e9 Ferreira, the director of the Brazilian Energy and Environment Institute (Iema), said it\u2019s premature to make predictions about the outcomes of the crisis for renewables.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a window of opportunity to talk about urban mobility<\/span><\/p>\n

But, as pollution levels fall, and people watch the skies turn blue in Latin America\u2019s biggest cities, Ferreira does see a window of opportunity for electric vehicles and prioritising public transport.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t see how, in the long run, this will be a push for renewables,\u201d he said, but added; \u201cit\u2019s a window of opportunity to talk about urban mobility.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In 2019, the new presidents of Mexico and Argentina announced plans to lift their struggling economies: ambitious oil projects that would boost state revenues.\u00a0 For Mexico, it centred on state-owned oil company Petr\u00f3leos Mexicanos (Pemex) and the controversial Dos Bocas refinery. In Argentina, Vaca Muerta, one of the world\u2019s largest deposits of shale oil and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":50000004,"featured_media":50034573,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[757],"tags":[20000838,547,50029971],"hashtags":[],"country":[50000020,50000021,50000025,50002594,50002597,50002604],"class_list":["post-50034571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","tag-covid-19","tag-fossil-fuels","tag-oil","country-argentina","country-brazil","country-colombia","country-ecuador","country-mexico","country-venezuela"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPlans to boost economies with oil crash along with prices | Dialogue Earth<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In Mexico and Argentina, skepticism over big oil projects increases as prices crash as some wonder if it\u2019s time to talk about renewables\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dialogue.earth\/en\/energy\/34571-plans-to-boost-economies-with-oil-crash-along-with-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Plans to boost economies with oil crash along with prices\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In Mexico and Argentina, skepticism over big oil projects increases. 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